Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-26-2023

Jul 26, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:21 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.683

$2.730

-1.72%

-$0.047

5,733

 

 

WTI

$78.79

$79.63

-1.05%

-$0.84

87,418

 

 

Brent

$82.81

$83.64

-0.99%

-$0.83

4,444

 

 

ULSD

$2.799

$2.778

0.76%

$0.021

2,069

 

 

RBOB

$2.896

$2.853

1.49%

$0.043

2,669

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.04

$4.01

0.75%

$0.03

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$39.34

$37.49

4.94%

$1.85

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$45.80

$46.74

-2.02%

-$0.94

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/21/23

669

-6

-89

07/22/22

 

 

Canada

07/21/23

187

0

-8

07/22/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/18/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

108,969

108,610

108,630

-20

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,989

92,676

92,379

297

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

436,155

410,119

423,583

-13,464

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,049

96,952

94,784

2,168

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,091

121,689

125,037

-3,348

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,582

36,332

36,241

91

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,249

160,473

160,853

-380

 

 

RBOB

368,484

343,452

354,619

-11,167

 

 

HSC Basis

578,070

573,172

568,671

4,501

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/20/18

 

 

 

7/14/23

7/7/23

Net Change

% Change

7/15/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

661

653

8

1.23%

521

26.87%

576

14.84%

 

 

Midwest

741

724

17

2.35%

608

21.88%

653

13.51%

 

 

Mountain

186

180

6

3.33%

144

29.17%

163

14.39%

 

 

Pacific

232

225

7

3.11%

253

-8.30%

268

-13.37%

 

 

South

1,150

1,147

3

0.26%

874

31.58%

968

18.85%

 

 

    Salt

321

323

-2

-0.62%

206

55.83%

255

25.69%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

824

5

0.61%

669

23.92%

712

16.37%

 

 

Total

2,971

2,930

41

1.40%

2,401

23.74%

2,627

13.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$51.54

$52.58

-1.99%

-$1.05

$49.87

3.33%

$82.72

-37.70%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$126.34

$138.96

-9.08%

-$12.62

$127.90

-1.22%

$128.13

-1.40%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$108.58

$103.80

4.61%

$4.78

$128.36

-15.41%

$116.92

-7.13%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$55.99

$55.04

1.72%

$0.95

$55.49

0.90%

$84.60

-33.82%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$44.23

$47.30

-6.49%

-$3.07

$50.96

-13.21%

$77.20

-42.71%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$194.04

$179.05

8.37%

$14.99

$204.25

-5.00%

$136.57

42.08%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$46.24

$51.31

-9.88%

-$5.07

$49.56

-6.71%

$76.97

-39.92%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.730

$2.685

1.68%

$0.05

$2.89

-5.60%

$5.13

-46.77%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.225

-$0.197

14.49%

-$0.03

-$0.07

236.12%

-$0.14

56.06%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.246

-$0.236

-3.82%

-$0.01

-$0.20

20.43%

-$0.22

13.38%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.379

-$0.366

-3.58%

-$0.01

-$0.47

-20.25%

-$1.53

-75.30%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.572

-$0.516

-10.79%

-$0.06

-$0.12

363.24%

-$0.19

199.53%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.749

-$0.756

-0.94%

$0.01

-$0.95

-21.27%

-$1.44

-48.02%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$2.480

$2.138

16.00%

$0.34

$2.35

5.51%

$0.70

253.67%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.665

$0.656

1.31%

$0.01

$0.56

19.31%

$0.94

-29.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.633

$0.630

0.42%

$0.00

$0.54

16.39%

$0.94

-33.01%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.259

$0.270

-3.94%

-$0.01

$0.23

15.10%

$0.43

-39.53%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.493

$1.439

3.78%

$0.05

$1.26

18.74%

$1.68

-11.28%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.765

$0.748

2.19%

$0.02

$0.62

23.47%

$1.09

-29.84%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.628

$0.635

-1.20%

-$0.01

$0.55

14.09%

$0.93

-32.40%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.563

$1.500

4.15%

$0.06

$1.38

13.36%

$1.68

-7.23%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$79.63

$78.74

1.12%

$0.89

$69.54

14.51%

$82.30

-3.24%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$83.64

$82.74

1.08%

$0.90

$74.35

12.49%

$88.01

-4.97%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$16.42

-$14.50

11.71%

-$1.92

-$13.58

20.95%

-$16.97

-3.24%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$81.14

$80.71

0.53%

$0.43

$72.38

12.11%

$85.71

-5.33%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$79.02

$78.45

0.72%

$0.57

$69.07

14.41%

$81.68

-3.26%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$80.00

$79.27

0.91%

$0.73

$69.47

15.16%

$80.49

-0.61%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$81.64

$80.74

1.10%

$0.90

$72.35

12.84%

$86.41

-5.52%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.78

$2.77

0.18%

$0.00

$2.41

15.08%

$3.03

-8.20%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.86

$2.45

16.56%

$0.41

$2.46

16.19%

$2.61

9.67%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.76

$2.35

17.27%

$0.41

$2.36

16.87%

$2.51

10.06%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.58

$2.62

-1.45%

-$0.04

$2.25

14.56%

$2.79

-7.63%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.42

$2.44

-0.78%

-$0.02

$2.53

-4.38%

$2.05

18.43%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$764.38

$766.07

-0.22%

-$1.70

$651.62

17.30%

$863.62

-11.49%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$104.29

$102.79

1.47%

$1.51

$89.90

16.01%

$110.31

-5.45%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

53.81%

65.54%

-17.90%

-11.73%

67.43%

-20.20%

51.33%

4.83%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

71.52%

84.49%

-15.35%

-12.97%

82.44%

-13.25%

71.96%

-0.61%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

73.72%

85.00%

-13.27%

-11.28%

91.92%

-19.80%

123.83%

-40.47%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

60.15%

72.96%

-17.56%

-12.81%

74.86%

-19.65%

52.87%

13.77%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

53.35%

54.52%

-2.15%

-1.17%

53.51%

-0.30%

53.33%

0.04%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

137.72%

154.27%

-10.73%

-16.55%

130.63%

5.43%

72.12%

90.96%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

223.82%

216.96%

3.16%

6.86%

202.66%

10.44%

88.84%

151.94%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/25/23

7/24/23

% Change

Change

6/26/23

% Change

7/26/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 34.14

EUR 31.41

8.69%

EUR 2.73

EUR 34.71

-1.64%

EUR 138.96

-75.43%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 86.41

GBP 78.85

9.59%

GBP 7.56

GBP 86.88

-0.55%

GBP 298.66

-71.07%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 97.00

EUR 93.34

3.92%

EUR 3.66

EUR 113.55

-14.58%

EUR 334.44

-71.00%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 87.78

GBP 83.16

5.55%

GBP 4.62

GBP 93.43

-6.05%

GBP 242.63

-63.82%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 93.47

EUR 91.42

2.25%

EUR 2.06

EUR 112.86

-17.18%

EUR 306.57

-69.51%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 118.92

EUR 117.15

1.51%

EUR 1.77

EUR 125.40

-5.17%

EUR 314.40

-62.18%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$12.24

$12.41

-1.39%

-$0.17

$11.46

6.81%

$40.09

-69.46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

16

-17

268

77

-1

40.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

65

6

-23

328

17

-46

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-32

313

-56

-140

-15.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W N Central

53

-19

-40

481

0

-119

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

7

-1

1,028

49

-119

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

95

0

-12

778

0

-180

0.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

148

23

-4

1,410

169

-188

14.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

29

1

554

-59

-148

-10.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

35

8

238

-46

-88

-16.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

84

9

-12

613

13

-115

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-6

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

0

2

4

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

1

4

14

3

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-3

0

4

-12

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

-1

1

-18

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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