Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-27-2023

Jul 27, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.577

$2.665

-3.30%

-$0.088

968

 

 

WTI

$79.84

$78.78

1.35%

$1.06

101,817

 

 

Brent

$83.78

$82.92

1.04%

$0.86

5,077

 

 

ULSD

$2.880

$2.843

1.30%

$0.037

2,910

 

 

RBOB

$2.919

$2.907

0.40%

$0.012

2,076

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.90

$4.14

-5.80%

-$0.24

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$40.34

$40.46

-0.30%

-$0.12

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$44.48

$45.83

-2.94%

-$1.35

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/21/23

669

-6

-89

07/22/22

 

 

Canada

07/21/23

187

0

-8

07/22/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/18/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

108,969

108,610

108,630

-20

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,989

92,676

92,379

297

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

436,155

410,119

423,583

-13,464

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,049

96,952

94,784

2,168

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,091

121,689

125,037

-3,348

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,582

36,332

36,241

91

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,249

160,473

160,853

-380

 

 

RBOB

368,484

343,452

354,619

-11,167

 

 

HSC Basis

578,070

573,172

568,671

4,501

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/20/18

 

 

 

7/14/23

7/7/23

Net Change

% Change

7/15/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

661

653

8

1.23%

521

26.87%

576

14.84%

 

 

Midwest

741

724

17

2.35%

608

21.88%

653

13.51%

 

 

Mountain

186

180

6

3.33%

144

29.17%

163

14.39%

 

 

Pacific

232

225

7

3.11%

253

-8.30%

268

-13.37%

 

 

South

1,150

1,147

3

0.26%

874

31.58%

968

18.85%

 

 

    Salt

321

323

-2

-0.62%

206

55.83%

255

25.69%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

824

5

0.61%

669

23.92%

712

16.37%

 

 

Total

2,971

2,930

41

1.40%

2,401

23.74%

2,627

13.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$49.99

$51.54

-3.01%

-$1.55

$46.41

7.70%

$82.07

-39.09%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$120.21

$126.34

-4.85%

-$6.13

$126.61

-5.06%

$125.95

-4.56%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$129.69

$108.58

19.44%

$21.10

$112.93

14.84%

$116.45

11.37%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$55.29

$55.99

-1.24%

-$0.69

$51.68

6.99%

$83.95

-34.14%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$43.90

$44.23

-0.75%

-$0.33

$47.22

-7.04%

$76.33

-42.49%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$199.86

$194.04

3.00%

$5.82

$191.26

4.50%

$140.55

42.20%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$45.99

$46.24

-0.54%

-$0.25

$45.98

0.01%

$77.26

-40.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.665

$2.730

-2.38%

-$0.07

$2.79

-4.45%

$5.03

-46.99%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.225

-$0.225

-0.27%

$0.00

-$0.06

300.36%

-$0.14

55.54%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.269

-$0.246

-8.66%

-$0.02

-$0.21

27.23%

-$0.22

24.18%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.401

-$0.379

-5.76%

-$0.02

-$0.42

-4.19%

-$1.65

-75.72%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.537

-$0.572

6.08%

$0.03

-$0.16

239.20%

-$0.17

212.02%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.781

-$0.749

4.27%

-$0.03

-$0.95

-17.61%

-$1.44

-45.92%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$2.424

$2.480

-2.28%

-$0.06

$1.92

26.28%

$0.70

245.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.672

$0.665

1.12%

$0.01

$0.54

24.62%

$0.96

-29.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.648

$0.633

2.38%

$0.02

$0.53

22.91%

$0.97

-32.98%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.255

$0.259

-1.80%

$0.00

$0.23

12.82%

$0.40

-36.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.499

$1.493

0.41%

$0.01

$1.22

23.19%

$1.67

-10.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.771

$0.765

0.85%

$0.01

$0.61

25.78%

$1.08

-28.74%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.652

$0.628

3.97%

$0.02

$0.54

21.42%

$0.95

-31.62%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.579

$1.563

1.07%

$0.02

$1.35

17.16%

$1.70

-7.22%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$78.78

$79.63

-1.08%

-$0.85

$67.90

16.02%

$84.52

-6.79%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$82.92

$83.64

-0.87%

-$0.72

$72.51

14.36%

$90.15

-8.02%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$16.71

-$16.42

1.72%

-$0.29

-$13.74

21.56%

-$17.33

-3.61%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$80.36

$81.14

-0.96%

-$0.77

$70.62

13.79%

$87.27

-7.91%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$78.44

$79.02

-0.74%

-$0.58

$67.71

15.86%

$83.57

-6.14%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$79.47

$80.00

-0.67%

-$0.53

$68.20

16.53%

$82.97

-4.23%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$80.92

$81.64

-0.89%

-$0.72

$70.51

14.76%

$85.40

-5.25%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.84

$2.78

2.30%

$0.06

$2.37

19.77%

$3.06

-7.19%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.90

$2.86

1.51%

$0.04

$2.42

19.98%

$2.65

9.31%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.80

$2.76

1.56%

$0.04

$2.32

20.85%

$2.55

9.67%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.65

$2.58

2.83%

$0.07

$2.16

22.77%

$2.85

-6.78%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.37

$2.42

-2.23%

-$0.05

$2.46

-3.54%

$2.07

14.72%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$780.49

$764.38

2.11%

$16.12

$650.02

20.07%

$829.13

-5.87%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$104.60

$104.29

0.29%

$0.30

$91.29

14.58%

$116.20

-9.99%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

57.81%

53.81%

7.43%

4.00%

70.75%

-18.29%

54.27%

6.52%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

76.82%

71.52%

7.41%

5.30%

86.30%

-10.98%

79.26%

-3.08%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

78.46%

73.72%

6.43%

4.74%

94.42%

-16.90%

148.77%

-47.26%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

70.64%

60.15%

17.44%

10.49%

73.51%

-3.90%

58.48%

20.79%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

53.63%

53.35%

0.52%

0.28%

48.96%

9.54%

45.81%

17.07%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

140.18%

137.72%

1.79%

2.46%

128.91%

8.74%

72.92%

92.24%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

231.05%

223.82%

3.23%

7.23%

204.30%

13.09%

89.32%

158.68%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/23

7/25/23

% Change

Change

6/27/23

% Change

7/27/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 30.17

EUR 34.14

-11.62%

-EUR 3.97

EUR 36.31

-16.91%

EUR 134.04

-77.49%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 76.84

GBP 86.41

-11.07%

-GBP 9.57

GBP 91.20

-15.75%

GBP 296.22

-74.06%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 96.75

EUR 97.00

-0.26%

-EUR 0.25

EUR 105.80

-8.56%

EUR 352.93

-72.59%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 83.15

GBP 87.78

-5.26%

-GBP 4.62

GBP 91.21

-8.83%

GBP 243.53

-65.85%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 93.86

EUR 93.47

0.42%

EUR 0.39

EUR 110.29

-14.89%

EUR 291.77

-67.83%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 110.71

EUR 118.92

-6.91%

-EUR 8.21

EUR 120.76

-8.32%

EUR 333.28

-66.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.19

$12.24

-8.57%

-$1.05

$11.63

-3.77%

$36.67

-69.47%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

16

-17

268

77

-1

40.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

65

6

-23

328

17

-46

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-32

313

-56

-140

-15.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W N Central

53

-19

-40

481

0

-119

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

7

-1

1,028

49

-119

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

95

0

-12

778

0

-180

0.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

148

23

-4

1,410

169

-188

14.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

29

1

554

-59

-148

-10.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

35

8

238

-46

-88

-16.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

84

9

-12

613

13

-115

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-6

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

0

2

4

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

1

4

14

3

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-3

0

4

-12

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

-1

1

-18

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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