Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-29-2024

Jul 29, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.044

$2.006

1.89%

$0.038

1,145

 

 

WTI

$76.85

$77.16

-0.40%

-$0.31

82,206

 

 

Brent

$80.83

$81.13

-0.37%

-$0.30

5,722

 

 

ULSD

$2.412

$2.420

-0.31%

-$0.007

1,895

 

 

RBOB

$2.451

$2.461

-0.37%

-$0.009

1,630

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.86

$3.97

-2.77%

-$0.11

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.56

$24.64

-0.32%

-$0.08

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$55.22

$55.46

-0.43%

-$0.24

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/26/24

589

3

-75

07/29/23

 

 

Canada

07/26/24

211

14

18

07/29/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,154

90,612

90,612

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,426

83,267

82,697

570

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

363,415

347,942

351,158

-3,216

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

154,799

130,654

129,597

1,057

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

134,915

124,532

125,022

-490

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,736

40,893

41,338

-445

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,814

156,686

157,577

-891

 

 

RBOB

398,408

376,218

380,759

-4,541

 

 

HSC Basis

832,086

824,450

824,149

301

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/19/19

 

 

 

7/19/24

7/12/24

Net Change

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

697

686

11

1.60%

670

4.03%

613

13.67%

 

 

Midwest

827

814

13

1.60%

757

9.25%

710

16.51%

 

 

Mountain

251

248

3

1.21%

189

32.80%

173

45.25%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

263

9.89%

 

 

South

1,167

1,173

-6

-0.51%

1,139

2.46%

1,026

13.70%

 

 

    Salt

313

318

-5

-1.57%

310

0.97%

268

16.62%

 

 

    Non_Salt

854

855

-1

-0.12%

829

3.02%

758

12.69%

 

 

Total

3,231

3,209

22

0.69%

2,987

8.17%

2,785

16.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$59.56

$59.75

-0.31%

-$0.18

$59.48

0.13%

$56.05

6.26%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$79.86

$74.26

7.54%

$5.60

$164.90

-51.57%

$99.13

-19.44%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$77.31

$82.00

-5.72%

-$4.69

$76.05

1.66%

$120.37

-35.77%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$50.40

$50.88

-0.93%

-$0.47

$58.93

-14.47%

$62.92

-19.90%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$59.26

$61.62

-3.82%

-$2.35

$57.47

3.12%

$54.55

8.63%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$128.50

$132.75

-3.20%

-$4.25

$127.20

1.03%

$202.34

-36.49%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$52.58

$54.74

-3.93%

-$2.15

$55.51

-5.28%

$52.86

-0.53%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-24

$2.006

$2.041

-1.71%

-$0.03

$2.68

-25.29%

$3.37

-40.39%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-24

-$0.353

-$0.349

1.06%

$0.00

-$0.32

10.62%

-$0.20

73.98%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-24

-$0.351

-$0.325

-7.57%

-$0.03

-$0.39

-9.39%

-$0.17

112.71%

 

 

Waha

Aug-24

-$1.735

-$1.720

-0.81%

-$0.01

-$1.40

23.71%

-$0.33

419.47%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-24

-$0.383

-$0.355

-8.03%

-$0.03

-$0.38

1.05%

-$0.05

682.04%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-24

-$1.389

-$1.440

-3.49%

$0.05

-$2.13

-34.82%

-$1.19

16.51%

 

 

Socal

Aug-24

$0.854

$0.640

33.57%

$0.21

$0.54

57.27%

$1.65

-48.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.775

$0.783

-0.97%

-$0.01

$0.84

-8.15%

$0.72

7.04%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.777

$0.785

-0.97%

-$0.01

$0.85

-8.53%

$0.73

6.77%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.128

$0.142

-9.72%

-$0.01

$0.17

-26.31%

$0.26

-49.81%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.490

$1.508

-1.18%

-$0.02

$1.57

-4.94%

$1.50

-0.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.900

$0.907

-0.85%

-$0.01

$0.93

-3.70%

$0.80

12.23%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.312

$6.400

-1.39%

-$0.09

$6.36

-0.82%

$5.41

16.66%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.850

$5.850

0.00%

$0.00

$5.85

0.00%

$5.02

16.60%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$77.16

$78.28

-1.45%

-$1.12

$80.83

-4.54%

$74.76

3.21%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$81.13

$82.37

-1.53%

-$1.24

$85.26

-4.84%

$79.25

2.37%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$15.40

-$15.40

0.00%

$0.00

-$14.30

7.69%

-$13.40

14.93%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$77.79

$78.76

-1.25%

-$0.97

$81.83

-4.94%

$76.89

1.17%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$75.18

$76.50

-1.76%

-$1.32

$79.83

-5.83%

$73.28

2.60%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$77.41

$78.22

-1.04%

-$0.81

$80.19

-3.46%

$74.16

4.38%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$79.13

$80.37

-1.57%

-$1.24

$83.26

-4.96%

$77.25

2.43%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.42

$2.47

-2.07%

-$0.05

$2.56

-5.70%

$2.60

-7.00%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.44

$2.46

-0.89%

-$0.02

$2.53

-3.48%

$2.43

0.66%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.34

$2.36

-0.93%

-$0.02

$2.43

-3.62%

$2.33

0.69%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.39

0.75%

$0.02

$2.50

-3.44%

$2.43

-0.78%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.80

$1.82

-0.99%

-$0.02

$1.88

-4.15%

$1.96

-8.06%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$698.90

$710.29

-1.60%

-$11.39

$751.01

-6.94%

$702.33

-0.49%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$97.05

$95.49

1.64%

$1.56

$100.72

-3.64%

$98.43

-1.40%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

62.83%

64.09%

-1.97%

-1.26%

54.90%

14.44%

42.77%

46.90%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

0.00%

70.34%

-100.00%

-70.34%

67.82%

-100.00%

45.75%

-100.00%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

0.00%

293.03%

-100.00%

-293.03%

90.46%

-100.00%

47.98%

-100.00%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

0.00%

75.51%

-100.00%

-75.51%

70.19%

-100.00%

43.97%

-100.00%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

63.43%

61.18%

3.68%

2.25%

64.20%

-1.20%

45.04%

40.83%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

180.93%

186.20%

-2.83%

-5.27%

74.25%

143.68%

62.53%

189.35%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

286.97%

294.75%

-2.64%

-7.78%

294.85%

-2.67%

100.03%

186.88%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 33.24

EUR 32.94

0.91%

EUR 0.30

EUR 35.45

-6.22%

EUR 51.41

-35.34%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 79.87

GBP 78.72

1.46%

GBP 1.15

GBP 85.99

-7.12%

GBP 130.82

-38.95%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 79.40

EUR 78.07

1.71%

EUR 1.34

EUR 84.17

-5.66%

EUR 150.25

-47.15%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 71.81

GBP 69.83

2.83%

GBP 1.97

GBP 78.54

-8.58%

GBP 108.82

-34.01%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 56.72

EUR 56.36

0.63%

EUR 0.36

EUR 62.40

-9.10%

EUR 146.48

-61.28%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 107.19

EUR 103.39

3.68%

EUR 3.81

EUR 108.53

-1.23%

EUR 159.75

-32.90%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.40

$12.11

2.38%

$0.29

$12.70

-2.34%

$16.35

-24.17%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/26/24

7/25/24

% Change

Change

6/27/24

% Change

7/27/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$33.24

$32.94

0.91%

$0.30

$35.45

-6.22%

$51.41

-35.34%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$79.87

$78.72

1.46%

$1.15

$85.99

-7.12%

$130.82

-38.95%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$79.40

$78.07

1.71%

$1.34

$84.17

-5.66%

$150.25

-47.15%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$71.81

$69.83

2.83%

$1.97

$78.54

-8.58%

$108.82

-34.01%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$56.72

$56.36

0.63%

$0.36

$62.40

-9.10%

$146.48

-61.28%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$107.19

$103.39

3.68%

$3.81

$108.53

-1.23%

$159.75

-32.90%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.40

$12.11

2.38%

$0.29

$12.70

-2.34%

$16.35

-24.17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

44

-1

-10

376

152

53

68.00%

16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

61

2

-2

475

121

84

34.00%

21.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-16

434

23

59

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-9

-19

530

-3

-35

-1.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

1

-4

1,211

161

93

15.00%

8.00%

 

 

E S Central

86

-9

-9

1,013

166

148

20.00%

17.00%

 

 

W S Central

97

-29

-42

1,504

172

-27

13.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

92

12

-18

736

66

89

10.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

73

27

-2

406

89

107

28.00%

35.00%

 

 

United States

74

-1

-12

758

104

67

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

0

2

-7

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

2

-2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-2

1

10

3

6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

8

-5

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

2

-2

1

3

-19

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

3

-5

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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