Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-30-2024

Jul 30, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:42 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.009

$1.907

5.35%

$0.102

20,344

 

 

WTI

$75.45

$75.81

-0.47%

-$0.36

74,301

 

 

Brent

$79.30

$79.78

-0.60%

-$0.48

2,453

 

 

ULSD

$2.367

$2.375

-0.36%

-$0.009

1,441

 

 

RBOB

$2.404

$2.415

-0.49%

-$0.012

2,518

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.93

$3.97

-1.01%

-$0.04

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.15

$24.12

0.12%

$0.03

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/26/24

589

3

-75

07/29/23

 

 

Canada

07/26/24

211

14

18

07/29/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,154

90,612

90,612

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,426

83,267

82,697

570

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

363,415

347,942

351,158

-3,216

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

154,799

130,654

129,597

1,057

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

134,915

124,532

125,022

-490

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,736

40,893

41,338

-445

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,814

156,686

157,577

-891

 

 

RBOB

398,408

376,218

380,759

-4,541

 

 

HSC Basis

832,086

824,450

824,149

301

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/19/19

 

 

 

7/19/24

7/12/24

Net Change

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

697

686

11

1.60%

670

4.03%

613

13.67%

 

 

Midwest

827

814

13

1.60%

757

9.25%

710

16.51%

 

 

Mountain

251

248

3

1.21%

189

32.80%

173

45.25%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

263

9.89%

 

 

South

1,167

1,173

-6

-0.51%

1,139

2.46%

1,026

13.70%

 

 

    Salt

313

318

-5

-1.57%

310

0.97%

268

16.62%

 

 

    Non_Salt

854

855

-1

-0.12%

829

3.02%

758

12.69%

 

 

Total

3,231

3,209

22

0.69%

2,987

8.17%

2,785

16.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$59.35

$59.56

-0.35%

-$0.21

$60.03

-1.13%

$55.63

6.70%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$81.81

$79.86

2.45%

$1.95

$163.19

-49.87%

$99.45

-17.74%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$68.06

$77.31

-11.97%

-$9.25

$75.65

-10.04%

$120.13

-43.35%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$50.62

$50.40

0.43%

$0.22

$57.58

-12.09%

$62.36

-18.83%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$55.30

$59.26

-6.68%

-$3.96

$58.23

-5.03%

$53.79

2.81%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$111.00

$128.50

-13.62%

-$17.50

$125.00

-11.20%

$201.85

-45.01%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$54.34

$52.58

3.34%

$1.75

$56.18

-3.28%

$52.09

4.31%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$2.036

$2.051

-0.73%

-$0.02

$2.60

-21.63%

$3.36

-39.33%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.415

-$0.473

-12.25%

$0.06

-$0.42

-1.59%

-$0.25

67.32%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.359

-$0.389

8.30%

$0.03

-$0.50

-27.86%

-$0.26

37.22%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$1.641

-$1.667

-1.53%

$0.03

-$1.23

33.89%

-$0.56

193.79%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.380

-$0.383

0.94%

$0.00

-$0.45

-16.48%

-$0.55

-31.36%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.263

-$1.293

-2.32%

$0.03

-$2.04

-37.97%

-$1.10

14.37%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

$0.394

$0.237

65.88%

$0.16

$0.38

3.93%

$1.69

-76.67%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.769

$0.775

-0.81%

-$0.01

$0.85

-9.43%

$0.73

4.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.783

$0.777

0.65%

$0.01

$0.85

-7.94%

$0.74

5.28%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.120

$0.128

-6.10%

-$0.01

$0.17

-30.30%

$0.25

-52.58%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.490

$1.490

0.01%

$0.00

$1.57

-5.33%

$1.49

-0.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.909

$0.900

0.99%

$0.01

$0.94

-3.47%

$0.80

13.94%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.310

$6.312

-0.03%

$0.00

$6.35

-0.57%

$5.45

15.88%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.840

$5.850

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.90

-1.02%

$5.06

15.35%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$75.81

$77.16

-1.78%

-$1.35

$80.64

-5.99%

$75.31

0.66%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$79.78

$81.13

-1.69%

-$1.35

$85.00

-6.14%

$79.81

-0.04%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$15.40

-$15.40

0.00%

$0.00

-$14.75

4.41%

-$13.80

11.59%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$76.52

$77.79

-1.66%

-$1.27

$82.31

-7.03%

$76.81

-0.37%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$73.92

$75.18

-1.71%

-$1.26

$80.36

-8.02%

$73.04

1.21%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$75.85

$77.41

-2.05%

-$1.56

$80.81

-6.13%

$73.83

2.74%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$77.78

$79.13

-1.74%

-$1.35

$83.00

-6.29%

$77.81

-0.04%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.38

$2.42

-1.70%

-$0.04

$2.54

-6.42%

$2.61

-8.93%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.41

$2.44

-1.11%

-$0.03

$2.51

-3.78%

$2.41

0.33%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.32

$2.34

-1.15%

-$0.03

$2.41

-3.94%

$2.31

0.35%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.26

$2.41

-6.38%

-$0.15

$2.47

-8.73%

$2.39

-5.52%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.80

$1.80

0.00%

$0.00

$1.86

-3.12%

$1.90

-5.36%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$692.42

$698.90

-0.93%

-$6.48

$741.00

-6.56%

$721.81

-4.07%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$95.55

$97.05

-1.55%

-$1.50

$101.67

-6.02%

$97.17

-1.67%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

63.41%

62.83%

0.92%

0.58%

56.44%

12.35%

41.08%

54.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

67.08%

0.00%

#DIV/0!

67.08%

66.35%

1.10%

43.19%

55.31%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

329.44%

0.00%

#DIV/0!

329.44%

98.27%

235.24%

44.86%

634.37%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

71.49%

0.00%

#DIV/0!

71.49%

66.31%

7.81%

40.70%

75.65%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

64.19%

63.43%

1.20%

0.76%

64.60%

-0.63%

45.27%

41.79%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

194.39%

180.93%

7.44%

13.46%

88.53%

119.58%

65.77%

195.56%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

306.46%

286.97%

6.79%

19.49%

301.12%

1.77%

102.01%

200.42%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 34.69

EUR 33.24

4.36%

EUR 1.45

EUR 35.44

-2.12%

EUR 49.58

-30.04%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 83.45

GBP 79.87

4.49%

GBP 3.58

GBP 85.87

-2.82%

GBP 124.79

-33.13%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 81.69

EUR 79.40

2.88%

EUR 2.29

EUR 84.66

-3.51%

EUR 150.02

-45.55%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 74.53

GBP 71.81

3.80%

GBP 2.73

GBP 77.35

-3.64%

GBP 108.18

-31.10%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 53.68

EUR 56.72

-5.36%

-EUR 3.04

EUR 65.71

-18.31%

EUR 142.45

-62.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 109.35

EUR 107.19

2.01%

EUR 2.15

EUR 106.80

2.39%

EUR 156.70

-30.22%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.68

$12.40

2.21%

$0.27

$12.58

0.77%

$16.16

-21.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/29/24

7/26/24

% Change

Change

6/28/24

% Change

7/28/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$34.69

$33.24

4.36%

$1.45

$35.44

-2.12%

$49.58

-30.04%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$83.45

$79.87

4.49%

$3.58

$85.87

-2.82%

$124.79

-33.13%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$81.69

$79.40

2.88%

$2.29

$84.66

-3.51%

$150.02

-45.55%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$74.53

$71.81

3.80%

$2.73

$77.35

-3.64%

$108.18

-31.10%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$53.68

$56.72

-5.36%

-$3.04

$65.71

-18.31%

$142.45

-62.32%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$109.35

$107.19

2.01%

$2.15

$106.80

2.39%

$156.70

-30.22%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.68

$12.40

2.21%

$0.27

$12.58

0.77%

$16.16

-21.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

44

-1

-10

376

152

53

68.00%

16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

61

2

-2

475

121

84

34.00%

21.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-16

434

23

59

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-9

-19

530

-3

-35

-1.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

1

-4

1,211

161

93

15.00%

8.00%

 

 

E S Central

86

-9

-9

1,013

166

148

20.00%

17.00%

 

 

W S Central

97

-29

-42

1,504

172

-27

13.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

92

12

-18

736

66

89

10.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

73

27

-2

406

89

107

28.00%

35.00%

 

 

United States

74

-1

-12

758

104

67

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

0

2

-7

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

2

-2

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-2

1

10

3

6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

8

-5

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

2

-2

1

3

-19

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

3

-5

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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