Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-31-2023

Jul 31, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 10:14 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.615

$2.638

-0.87%

-$0.023

45,172

 

 

WTI

$81.11

$80.58

0.66%

$0.53

155,137

 

 

Brent

$85.38

$84.99

0.46%

$0.39

162

 

 

ULSD

$2.956

$2.959

-0.09%

-$0.003

1,159

 

 

RBOB

$2.931

$2.956

-0.85%

-$0.025

1,508

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.25

$4.41

-3.63%

-$0.16

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$40.38

$41.57

-2.85%

-$1.19

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/28/23

664

-5

-103

07/29/22

 

 

Canada

07/28/23

193

6

-11

07/29/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/25/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

111,411

111,050

111,018

32

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

94,480

94,159

93,852

307

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

439,977

413,251

427,405

-14,154

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

137,464

103,164

96,509

6,655

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,546

130,735

134,027

-3,292

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,236

36,962

36,855

107

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,852

162,056

162,339

-283

 

 

RBOB

369,414

345,283

355,637

-10,354

 

 

HSC Basis

590,240

585,654

578,477

7,177

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/27/18

 

 

 

7/21/23

7/14/23

Net Change

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

670

661

9

1.36%

532

25.94%

594

12.79%

 

 

Midwest

757

741

16

2.16%

625

21.12%

674

12.28%

 

 

Mountain

189

186

3

1.61%

144

31.25%

165

14.41%

 

 

Pacific

232

232

0

0.00%

253

-8.30%

266

-12.91%

 

 

South

1,139

1,150

-11

-0.96%

862

32.13%

963

18.30%

 

 

    Salt

310

321

-11

-3.43%

195

58.97%

246

25.81%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

829

0

0.00%

667

24.29%

716

15.78%

 

 

Total

2,987

2,971

16

0.54%

2,416

23.63%

2,663

12.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$46.99

$46.64

0.77%

$0.36

$45.17

4.03%

$78.52

-40.15%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$147.49

$141.87

3.96%

$5.61

$131.98

11.75%

$121.80

21.09%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$135.57

$133.23

1.76%

$2.34

$112.02

21.02%

$113.00

19.98%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$51.88

$51.55

0.63%

$0.32

$51.92

-0.09%

$79.83

-35.02%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$42.16

$42.58

-0.98%

-$0.42

$42.39

-0.54%

$71.15

-40.75%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$200.50

$191.42

4.74%

$9.08

$206.98

-3.13%

$141.41

41.78%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$43.61

$44.23

-1.41%

-$0.63

$41.35

5.45%

$74.74

-41.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.638

$2.595

1.66%

$0.04

$2.69

-1.97%

$4.88

-45.90%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.260

-$0.254

2.64%

-$0.01

-$0.22

17.90%

-$0.17

49.88%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.293

-$0.306

4.65%

$0.01

-$0.34

-14.44%

-$0.24

21.31%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.490

-$0.502

-2.33%

$0.01

-$0.61

-19.43%

-$1.61

-69.62%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$0.848

-$0.859

1.36%

$0.01

-$0.81

4.77%

-$1.18

-28.22%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.692

-$0.692

-0.03%

$0.00

-$0.89

-22.00%

-$1.37

-49.49%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$2.333

$1.888

23.55%

$0.44

$1.56

49.46%

$0.58

304.04%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.725

$0.702

3.19%

$0.02

$0.54

34.52%

$0.97

-25.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.691

$0.670

3.14%

$0.02

$0.52

32.34%

$1.00

-30.56%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.264

$0.258

1.98%

$0.01

$0.24

9.72%

$0.38

-31.32%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.536

$1.500

2.34%

$0.04

$1.24

23.86%

$1.72

-10.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.820

$0.816

0.47%

$0.00

$0.62

32.76%

$1.12

-27.08%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.692

$0.680

1.84%

$0.01

$0.53

30.01%

$0.98

-29.34%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.575

$1.582

-0.43%

-$0.01

$1.38

14.18%

$1.51

4.15%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$80.58

$80.09

0.61%

$0.49

$70.02

15.08%

$85.45

-5.70%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$84.99

$84.24

0.88%

$0.75

$74.51

14.07%

$91.25

-6.86%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$15.45

-$16.38

-6.04%

$0.93

-$12.09

27.82%

-$17.14

-9.84%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$81.96

$81.50

0.56%

$0.46

$72.46

13.10%

$86.69

-5.46%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$80.11

$79.39

0.89%

$0.71

$69.80

14.76%

$82.88

-3.35%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$80.88

$80.62

0.31%

$0.25

$70.31

15.03%

$85.27

-5.15%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$82.99

$82.24

0.90%

$0.75

$72.51

14.45%

$90.25

-8.04%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.96

$2.91

1.65%

$0.05

$2.41

22.81%

$3.02

-2.02%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.91

$2.95

-1.29%

-$0.04

$2.50

16.63%

$2.67

9.07%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.81

$2.85

-1.33%

-$0.04

$2.40

17.32%

$2.57

9.42%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.76

$2.73

1.06%

$0.03

$2.27

21.24%

$2.78

-0.68%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.25

$2.30

-2.22%

-$0.05

$2.29

-1.75%

$2.20

2.04%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$818.89

$801.79

2.13%

$17.10

$646.19

26.73%

$879.39

-6.88%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$108.19

$107.46

0.68%

$0.73

$90.07

20.11%

$111.32

-2.82%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

56.09%

59.52%

-5.76%

-3.43%

68.70%

-18.36%

52.07%

7.72%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

74.20%

76.12%

-2.52%

-1.92%

86.61%

-14.33%

70.63%

5.05%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

77.25%

77.96%

-0.91%

-0.71%

91.05%

-15.16%

110.47%

-30.07%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

62.46%

65.22%

-4.23%

-2.76%

74.73%

-16.42%

51.27%

21.83%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

56.41%

54.93%

2.69%

1.48%

49.11%

14.86%

53.27%

5.89%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

156.40%

151.78%

3.04%

4.62%

128.48%

21.73%

69.69%

124.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

206.61%

237.07%

-12.85%

-30.46%

202.44%

2.06%

89.55%

130.72%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/28/23

7/27/23

% Change

Change

6/29/23

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 26.88

EUR 29.43

-8.68%

-EUR 2.55

EUR 36.12

-25.59%

EUR 137.46

-80.45%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 67.09

GBP 73.29

-8.47%

-GBP 6.21

GBP 91.43

-26.62%

GBP 303.80

-77.92%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 86.20

EUR 88.36

-2.45%

-EUR 2.16

EUR 105.33

-18.16%

EUR 315.98

-72.72%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 77.61

GBP 77.31

0.39%

GBP 0.30

GBP 93.74

-17.20%

GBP 260.09

-70.16%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 83.81

EUR 87.80

-4.55%

-EUR 3.99

EUR 110.39

-24.08%

EUR 285.30

-70.62%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 104.94

EUR 104.95

-0.01%

-EUR 0.01

EUR 120.80

-13.13%

EUR 303.56

-65.43%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.26

$11.92

-5.50%

-$0.65

$12.39

-9.10%

$33.36

-66.24%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/29/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

67

22

-4

335

99

-5

42.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

75

16

-6

403

32

-52

9.00%

-11.00%

 

 

E N Central

72

14

16

385

-42

-124

-10.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

96

24

34

578

25

-85

5.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

108

10

-4

1,135

59

-123

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

104

9

-7

882

9

-187

1.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

16

-5

1,552

185

-193

14.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

28

30

662

-30

-117

-4.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Pacific

72

25

6

310

-21

-83

-6.00%

-21.00%

 

 

United States

93

18

5

705

30

-110

4.00%

-13.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/29/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-3

0

1

-9

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-4

-1

4

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

-3

15

1

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-3

1

2

-21

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

2

-6

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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