Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-31-2024

Jul 31, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:32 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.089

$2.126

-1.74%

-$0.037

20,295

 

 

WTI

$77.37

$74.73

3.53%

$2.64

106,916

 

 

Brent

$80.80

$78.63

2.76%

$2.17

276

 

 

ULSD

$2.402

$2.337

2.79%

$0.065

305

 

 

RBOB

$2.445

$2.387

2.41%

$0.058

345

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.35

$3.90

-14.10%

-$0.55

Sep-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.89

$23.93

-0.17%

-$0.04

Sep-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/26/24

589

3

-75

07/29/23

 

 

Canada

07/26/24

211

14

18

07/29/23

 

 

International

June

957

4

-10

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,154

90,612

90,612

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,426

83,267

82,697

570

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

363,415

347,942

351,158

-3,216

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

154,799

130,654

129,597

1,057

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

134,915

124,532

125,022

-490

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,736

40,893

41,338

-445

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,814

156,686

157,577

-891

 

 

RBOB

398,408

376,218

380,759

-4,541

 

 

HSC Basis

832,086

824,450

824,149

301

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/19/19

 

 

 

7/19/24

7/12/24

Net Change

% Change

7/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

697

686

11

1.60%

670

4.03%

613

13.67%

 

 

Midwest

827

814

13

1.60%

757

9.25%

710

16.51%

 

 

Mountain

251

248

3

1.21%

189

32.80%

173

45.25%

 

 

Pacific

289

289

0

0.00%

232

24.57%

263

9.89%

 

 

South

1,167

1,173

-6

-0.51%

1,139

2.46%

1,026

13.70%

 

 

    Salt

313

318

-5

-1.57%

310

0.97%

268

16.62%

 

 

    Non_Salt

854

855

-1

-0.12%

829

3.02%

758

12.69%

 

 

Total

3,231

3,209

22

0.69%

2,987

8.17%

2,785

16.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-24

$58.65

$59.35

-1.18%

-$0.70

$58.38

0.46%

$55.52

5.65%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-24

$79.37

$81.81

-2.98%

-$2.44

$142.44

-44.28%

$96.28

-17.56%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-24

$61.68

$68.06

-9.37%

-$6.37

$80.00

-22.90%

$114.44

-46.10%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-24

$49.44

$50.62

-2.32%

-$1.18

$56.04

-11.77%

$62.25

-20.57%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-24

$52.87

$55.30

-4.40%

-$2.43

$56.53

-6.48%

$50.99

3.68%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-24

$106.89

$111.00

-3.70%

-$4.11

$130.33

-17.98%

$193.49

-44.76%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-24

$51.26

$54.34

-5.66%

-$3.07

$54.02

-5.11%

$50.14

2.25%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-24

$2.126

$2.036

4.42%

$0.09

$2.49

-14.69%

$3.36

-36.63%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-24

-$0.345

-$0.415

-16.98%

$0.07

-$0.38

-8.52%

-$0.24

42.24%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-24

-$0.308

-$0.359

16.67%

$0.05

-$0.48

-35.82%

-$0.26

19.58%

 

 

Waha

Sep-24

-$1.669

-$1.641

-1.66%

-$0.03

-$1.13

47.31%

-$0.54

209.42%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-24

-$0.352

-$0.380

7.33%

$0.03

-$0.41

-13.57%

-$0.56

-36.93%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-24

-$1.326

-$1.263

5.04%

-$0.06

-$1.95

-32.07%

-$1.10

20.37%

 

 

Socal

Sep-24

$0.254

$0.394

-35.58%

-$0.14

$0.34

-25.05%

$1.67

-84.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-24

$0.767

$0.769

-0.16%

$0.00

$0.86

-10.50%

$0.76

1.29%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-24

$0.771

$0.783

-1.45%

-$0.01

$0.86

-10.06%

$0.77

0.19%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-24

$0.125

$0.120

3.71%

$0.00

$0.17

-25.52%

$0.26

-51.97%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-24

$1.450

$1.490

-2.70%

-$0.04

$1.60

-9.39%

$1.52

-4.44%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-24

$0.901

$0.909

-0.90%

-$0.01

$0.95

-4.91%

$0.82

9.80%

 

 

Far East Propane

Aug-24

$6.260

$6.310

-0.80%

-$0.05

$6.45

-2.95%

$5.51

13.57%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Aug-24

$5.830

$5.840

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.89

-0.94%

$5.05

15.51%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-24

$74.73

$75.81

-1.45%

-$1.08

$82.32

-9.22%

$76.05

-1.74%

 

 

Brent

Sep-24

$78.63

$79.78

-1.46%

-$1.15

$86.60

-9.20%

$80.59

-2.43%

 

 

WCS

Sep-24

-$15.43

-$15.40

0.17%

-$0.03

-$14.85

3.87%

-$12.61

22.29%

 

 

LLS

Sep-24

$75.96

$76.52

-0.74%

-$0.56

$82.18

-7.57%

$77.80

-2.36%

 

 

Mars

Sep-24

$73.49

$73.92

-0.58%

-$0.43

$80.13

-8.29%

$74.43

-1.25%

 

 

Sour

Sep-24

$75.06

$75.85

-1.05%

-$0.79

$80.61

-6.89%

$75.30

-0.31%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-24

$76.63

$77.78

-1.50%

-$1.15

$84.60

-9.42%

$78.59

-2.49%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-24

$2.37

$2.38

-0.17%

$0.00

$2.61

-9.15%

$2.62

-9.36%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.37

$2.41

-1.95%

-$0.05

$2.57

-7.79%

$2.44

-2.95%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-24

$2.27

$2.32

-2.03%

-$0.05

$2.47

-8.10%

$2.34

-3.08%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-24

$2.11

$2.26

-6.42%

-$0.14

$2.53

-16.31%

$2.44

-13.50%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-24

$1.78

$1.80

-0.94%

-$0.02

$1.90

-6.05%

$1.85

-3.41%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-24

$680.65

$692.42

-1.70%

-$11.78

$745.00

-8.64%

$714.69

-4.76%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-24

$93.72

$95.55

-1.91%

-$1.83

$100.81

-7.03%

$97.80

-4.17%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-24

61.32%

63.41%

-3.30%

-2.09%

59.46%

3.13%

42.38%

44.69%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-24

69.16%

67.08%

3.10%

2.08%

66.71%

3.67%

45.88%

50.74%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-24

320.01%

329.44%

-2.86%

-9.43%

91.89%

248.25%

49.97%

540.40%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-24

74.45%

71.49%

4.14%

2.96%

67.11%

10.94%

43.48%

71.23%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-24

64.72%

64.19%

0.83%

0.53%

62.07%

4.27%

45.31%

42.84%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-24

224.91%

194.39%

15.70%

30.52%

61.05%

268.40%

67.03%

235.54%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-24

259.54%

306.46%

-15.31%

-46.92%

310.50%

-16.41%

102.60%

152.96%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-24

EUR 35.19

EUR 34.69

1.44%

EUR 0.50

EUR 34.52

1.94%

EUR 49.00

-28.19%

 

 

NBP

Sep-24

GBP 85.06

GBP 83.45

1.93%

GBP 1.61

GBP 83.14

2.30%

GBP 126.43

-32.72%

 

 

German Base

Sep-24

EUR 82.07

EUR 81.69

0.47%

EUR 0.38

EUR 83.39

-1.59%

EUR 147.64

-44.41%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-24

GBP 74.53

GBP 74.53

0.00%

GBP 0.00

GBP 72.30

3.08%

GBP 108.73

-31.45%

 

 

French Base

Sep-24

EUR 53.55

EUR 53.68

-0.24%

-EUR 0.13

EUR 63.67

-15.90%

EUR 143.60

-62.71%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-24

EUR 108.86

EUR 109.35

-0.44%

-EUR 0.49

EUR 100.08

8.78%

EUR 153.91

-29.27%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-24

$12.19

$12.68

-3.80%

-$0.48

$12.29

-0.79%

$16.56

-26.37%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/30/24

7/29/24

% Change

Change

7/1/24

% Change

7/31/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Sep-24

$35.19

$34.69

1.44%

$0.50

$34.52

1.94%

$49.00

-28.19%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Sep-24

$85.06

$83.45

1.93%

$1.61

$83.14

2.30%

$126.43

-32.72%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Sep-24

$82.07

$81.69

0.47%

$0.38

$83.39

-1.59%

$147.64

-44.41%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Sep-24

$74.53

$74.53

0.00%

$0.00

$72.30

3.08%

$108.73

-31.45%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Sep-24

$53.55

$53.68

-0.24%

-$0.13

$63.67

-15.90%

$143.60

-62.71%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$108.86

$109.35

-0.44%

-$0.49

$100.08

8.78%

$153.91

-29.27%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Sep-24

$12.19

$12.68

-3.80%

-$0.48

$12.29

-0.79%

$16.56

-26.37%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

44

-1

-10

376

152

53

68.00%

16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

61

2

-2

475

121

84

34.00%

21.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-16

434

23

59

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

-9

-19

530

-3

-35

-1.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

1

-4

1,211

161

93

15.00%

8.00%

 

 

E S Central

86

-9

-9

1,013

166

148

20.00%

17.00%

 

 

W S Central

97

-29

-42

1,504

172

-27

13.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

92

12

-18

736

66

89

10.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

73

27

-2

406

89

107

28.00%

35.00%

 

 

United States

74

-1

-12

758

104

67

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

-2

0

2

-7

1

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

2

-2

2

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-2

1

10

3

6

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

8

-5

-6

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

2

-2

1

3

-19

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

3

-5

1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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