Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-03-2024

Jun 3, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:53 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.733

$2.587

5.64%

$0.146

40,010

 

 

WTI

$76.95

$76.99

-0.05%

-$0.04

82,127

 

 

Brent

$81.19

$81.62

-0.53%

-$0.43

9,405

 

 

ULSD

$2.391

$2.364

1.18%

$0.028

6,486

 

 

RBOB

$2.426

$2.426

0.01%

$0.000

7,198

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.43

$4.38

1.14%

$0.05

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.37

$24.10

1.13%

$0.27

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/31/24

600

0

-96

06/03/23

 

 

Canada

05/31/24

128

8

31

06/03/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/28/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

102,370

101,908

101,919

-11

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,137

86,652

86,744

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

372,952

355,680

360,076

-4,396

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

165,320

147,749

140,342

7,407

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

138,849

129,904

131,438

-1,534

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,763

35,976

36,351

-375

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,431

158,110

158,895

-785

 

 

RBOB

387,565

361,987

371,841

-9,854

 

 

HSC Basis

861,661

852,844

855,979

-3,135

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/24/19

 

 

 

5/24/24

5/17/24

Net Change

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

538

511

27

5.28%

522

3.07%

442

21.66%

 

 

Midwest

652

628

24

3.82%

577

13.00%

510

27.74%

 

 

Mountain

210

202

8

3.96%

127

65.35%

125

68.27%

 

 

Pacific

267

259

8

3.09%

151

76.82%

217

23.04%

 

 

South

1,128

1,112

16

1.44%

1,070

5.42%

954

18.24%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

304

6.58%

292

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

804

793

11

1.39%

766

4.96%

662

21.38%

 

 

Total

2,795

2,711

84

3.10%

2,446

14.27%

2,248

24.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$43.43

$44.76

-2.98%

-$1.33

$36.58

18.74%

$44.40

-2.18%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$65.81

$70.13

-6.16%

-$4.32

$80.03

-17.77%

$43.19

52.37%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$21.44

$24.00

-10.66%

-$2.56

$25.77

-16.79%

$53.79

-60.14%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$43.23

$44.63

-3.13%

-$1.40

$42.43

1.88%

$48.31

-10.52%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$36.12

$37.05

-2.49%

-$0.92

$35.55

1.61%

$48.17

-25.01%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$41.85

$40.00

4.62%

$1.85

$34.50

21.30%

$60.40

-30.71%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$35.34

$36.92

-4.28%

-$1.58

$33.08

6.86%

$47.43

-25.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.587

$2.572

0.58%

$0.01

$2.33

10.98%

$3.22

-19.63%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.273

-$0.279

-2.19%

$0.01

-$0.19

46.69%

-$0.28

-4.25%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.451

-$0.497

10.16%

$0.05

-$0.27

66.02%

-$0.20

125.00%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.561

-$1.581

-1.23%

$0.02

-$1.15

35.19%

-$0.72

115.80%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.132

$0.124

6.87%

$0.01

$0.27

-50.65%

$0.17

-22.28%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$1.713

-$1.749

-2.05%

$0.04

-$1.40

22.08%

-$1.38

24.15%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

$0.014

-$0.054

-125.14%

$0.07

$0.17

-92.08%

$1.52

-99.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.711

$0.719

-1.08%

-$0.01

$0.72

-1.19%

$0.63

12.65%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.720

$0.721

-0.07%

$0.00

$0.71

0.86%

$0.60

20.03%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.190

$0.191

-0.68%

$0.00

$0.18

3.42%

$0.23

-17.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.481

$1.520

-2.56%

-$0.04

$1.53

-3.19%

$1.30

13.94%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.782

$0.826

-5.34%

-$0.04

$0.80

-2.78%

$0.68

15.56%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.180

$6.235

-0.89%

-$0.06

$5.80

6.53%

$4.73

30.75%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.781

$5.835

-0.91%

-$0.05

$5.41

6.86%

$4.35

32.92%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$76.99

$77.91

-1.19%

-$0.92

$78.48

-1.90%

$67.11

14.72%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$81.26

$81.86

-0.74%

-$0.60

$83.67

-2.88%

$71.48

13.68%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.75

-$11.55

1.70%

-$0.20

-$10.95

7.31%

-$15.00

-21.67%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.91

$81.10

-1.49%

-$1.19

$80.45

-0.67%

$66.20

20.72%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.86

$79.15

-1.66%

-$1.29

$78.25

-0.49%

$61.89

25.80%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.12

$79.30

-1.51%

-$1.18

$78.45

-0.43%

$65.10

20.00%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$79.26

$79.86

-0.76%

-$0.60

$81.67

-2.95%

$70.94

11.73%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.36

$2.42

-2.48%

-$0.06

$2.44

-3.39%

$2.25

4.84%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.42

$2.41

0.41%

$0.01

$2.59

-6.52%

$2.17

11.61%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.32

$2.31

0.43%

$0.01

$2.49

-6.78%

$2.07

12.17%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.31

$2.32

-0.47%

-$0.01

$2.39

-3.23%

$2.12

9.12%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.80

$1.81

-0.44%

-$0.01

$1.74

3.74%

$1.74

3.68%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$691.54

$702.60

-1.57%

-$11.05

$705.02

-1.91%

$605.86

14.14%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$94.15

$96.60

-2.54%

-$2.45

$96.33

-2.26%

$86.21

9.21%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

56.38%

61.05%

-7.65%

-4.67%

44.97%

25.37%

45.76%

23.21%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

55.38%

59.94%

-7.61%

-4.56%

43.40%

27.60%

45.34%

22.14%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

112.15%

128.34%

-12.61%

-16.19%

140.37%

-20.10%

50.28%

123.05%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

66.88%

71.08%

-5.91%

-4.20%

55.19%

21.18%

45.21%

47.93%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

82.64%

86.14%

-4.06%

-3.50%

67.25%

22.88%

46.00%

79.65%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

130.10%

70.05%

85.72%

60.05%

77.28%

68.35%

71.94%

80.85%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

314.40%

328.97%

-4.43%

-14.57%

284.29%

10.59%

119.80%

162.44%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 34.68

EUR 35.04

-1.02%

-EUR 0.36

EUR 31.01

11.85%

EUR 41.75

-16.94%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 83.05

GBP 83.94

-1.07%

-GBP 0.90

GBP 75.17

10.48%

GBP 99.32

-16.38%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 80.54

EUR 82.15

-1.97%

-EUR 1.61

EUR 75.39

6.83%

EUR 101.05

-20.30%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 76.63

GBP 77.21

-0.74%

-GBP 0.57

GBP 67.25

13.96%

GBP 91.69

-16.42%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 46.59

EUR 46.17

0.93%

EUR 0.43

EUR 56.07

-16.90%

EUR 93.83

-50.34%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 111.21

EUR 114.06

-2.50%

-EUR 2.86

EUR 97.96

13.52%

EUR 111.52

-0.28%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.09

$11.31

-2.02%

-$0.23

$10.69

3.71%

$12.25

-9.49%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/31/24

5/30/24

% Change

Change

5/2/24

% Change

6/1/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$34.68

$35.04

-1.02%

-$0.36

$31.01

11.85%

$41.75

-16.94%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$83.05

$83.94

-1.07%

-$0.90

$75.17

10.48%

$99.32

-16.38%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$80.54

$82.15

-1.97%

-$1.61

$75.39

6.83%

$101.05

-20.30%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$76.63

$77.21

-0.74%

-$0.57

$67.25

13.96%

$91.69

-16.42%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$46.59

$46.17

0.93%

$0.43

$56.07

-16.90%

$93.83

-50.34%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$111.21

$114.06

-2.50%

-$2.86

$97.96

13.52%

$111.52

-0.28%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.09

$11.31

-2.02%

-$0.23

$10.69

3.71%

$12.25

-9.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

5

1

-1

14

7

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

9

-2

3

35

10

7

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

2

-18

-24

43

-12

-5

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

18

-8

-18

66

-12

-39

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

62

7

26

411

41

-18

11.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

52

5

16

280

80

56

40.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

91

15

21

567

128

58

29.00%

11.00%

 

 

Mountain

32

-1

10

103

-47

-11

-31.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

2

-11

2

3

-56

-18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-3

4

181

13

0

8.00%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

23

-14

-8

5,743

-841

64

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

12

-14

-7

5,162

-745

52

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

30

-1

11

5,367

-1,117

-441

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

23

-4

15

5,642

-1,096

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

4

-2

-8

2,457

-405

-3

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-3

-5

3,080

-537

-17

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,059

-239

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-7

7

4,887

-268

-563

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

26

-4

-15

3,086

-85

-481

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-5

-2

3,942

-569

-238

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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