Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-04-2024

Jun 4, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:52 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.764

$2.756

0.29%

$0.008

31,351

 

 

WTI

$72.99

$74.22

-1.66%

-$1.23

130,813

 

 

Brent

$77.15

$81.61

-5.47%

-$4.46

14,352

 

 

ULSD

$2.275

$2.296

-0.92%

-$0.021

10,046

 

 

RBOB

$2.310

$2.336

-1.10%

-$0.026

8,126

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.31

$4.27

0.94%

$0.04

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.68

$23.46

0.93%

$0.22

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$62.45

$59.90

4.25%

$2.54

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/31/24

600

0

-96

06/03/23

 

 

Canada

05/31/24

128

8

31

06/03/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/28/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

102,370

101,908

101,919

-11

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,137

86,652

86,744

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

372,952

355,680

360,076

-4,396

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

165,320

147,749

140,342

7,407

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

138,849

129,904

131,438

-1,534

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,763

35,976

36,351

-375

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,431

158,110

158,895

-785

 

 

RBOB

387,565

361,987

371,841

-9,854

 

 

HSC Basis

861,661

852,844

855,979

-3,135

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/24/19

 

 

 

5/24/24

5/17/24

Net Change

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

538

511

27

5.28%

522

3.07%

442

21.66%

 

 

Midwest

652

628

24

3.82%

577

13.00%

510

27.74%

 

 

Mountain

210

202

8

3.96%

127

65.35%

125

68.27%

 

 

Pacific

267

259

8

3.09%

151

76.82%

217

23.04%

 

 

South

1,128

1,112

16

1.44%

1,070

5.42%

954

18.24%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

304

6.58%

292

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

804

793

11

1.39%

766

4.96%

662

21.38%

 

 

Total

2,795

2,711

84

3.10%

2,446

14.27%

2,248

24.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$68.42

$65.80

3.98%

$2.62

$63.26

8.15%

$61.02

12.12%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$125.78

$126.06

-0.22%

-$0.28

$120.76

4.16%

$65.19

92.93%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$59.46

$56.75

4.78%

$2.71

$59.39

0.12%

$104.10

-42.88%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$68.39

$65.85

3.86%

$2.54

$64.14

6.64%

$67.36

1.53%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$59.40

$58.00

2.41%

$1.40

$58.22

2.03%

$72.09

-17.60%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$98.60

$98.14

0.46%

$0.45

$95.80

2.92%

$154.98

-36.38%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$59.87

$59.38

0.81%

$0.48

$54.98

8.90%

$70.17

-14.69%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.756

$2.587

6.53%

$0.17

$2.42

14.07%

$3.25

-15.20%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.262

-$0.273

-3.92%

$0.01

-$0.22

18.71%

-$0.29

-10.49%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.491

-$0.451

-8.07%

-$0.04

-$0.29

66.67%

-$0.21

137.65%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.570

-$1.561

-0.56%

-$0.01

-$1.16

35.34%

-$0.75

109.21%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.015

$0.132

-88.65%

-$0.12

$0.26

-94.26%

$0.20

-92.41%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$1.795

-$1.713

4.80%

-$0.08

-$1.39

29.46%

-$1.38

29.91%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

$0.001

$0.014

-93.43%

-$0.01

$0.20

-99.55%

$1.54

-99.94%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.685

$0.715

-4.23%

-$0.03

$0.70

-1.65%

$0.64

7.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.692

$0.725

-4.51%

-$0.03

$0.71

-3.17%

$0.65

7.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.195

$0.191

2.03%

$0.00

$0.19

1.97%

$0.22

-13.18%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.441

$1.500

-3.95%

-$0.06

$1.52

-4.97%

$1.36

6.00%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.736

$0.804

-8.50%

-$0.07

$0.79

-7.37%

$0.71

4.05%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.005

$6.105

-1.64%

-$0.10

$5.84

2.81%

$4.75

26.47%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.600

$5.610

-0.18%

-$0.01

$5.38

4.06%

$4.48

24.92%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$74.22

$76.99

-3.73%

-$2.77

$77.76

-4.55%

$68.38

8.54%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$78.46

$81.26

-3.56%

-$2.80

$82.96

-5.42%

$72.89

7.64%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.75

-$11.75

-0.01%

$0.00

-$10.80

8.79%

-$13.52

-13.07%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.18

$79.91

-0.93%

-$0.74

$80.61

-1.79%

$70.69

12.01%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.22

$77.86

-0.83%

-$0.64

$78.32

-1.39%

$66.30

16.49%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$77.35

$78.12

-0.99%

-$0.77

$78.50

-1.46%

$66.48

16.35%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$76.46

$79.26

-3.66%

-$2.80

$80.96

-5.56%

$71.67

6.68%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.29

$2.38

-3.90%

-$0.09

$2.45

-6.64%

$2.31

-0.91%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.40

$2.42

-0.87%

-$0.02

$2.52

-4.91%

$2.21

8.40%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.30

$2.32

-0.90%

-$0.02

$2.42

-5.12%

$2.11

8.80%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.25

$2.33

-3.14%

-$0.07

$2.41

-6.44%

$2.12

6.28%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.79

$1.81

-0.83%

-$0.01

$1.76

1.70%

$1.69

6.15%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$691.99

$696.32

-0.62%

-$4.33

$710.50

-2.61%

$627.61

10.26%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$94.07

$94.12

-0.05%

-$0.05

$96.43

-2.45%

$90.73

3.68%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

53.66%

56.38%

-4.82%

-2.72%

45.50%

17.93%

42.05%

27.61%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

45.82%

55.38%

-17.26%

-9.56%

43.21%

6.04%

42.42%

8.02%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

114.12%

112.15%

1.76%

1.97%

140.77%

-18.93%

45.67%

149.88%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

62.70%

66.88%

-6.25%

-4.18%

52.54%

19.34%

41.71%

50.32%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

80.86%

82.64%

-2.15%

-1.78%

67.44%

19.90%

45.05%

79.49%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

82.07%

130.10%

-36.92%

-48.03%

80.01%

2.57%

71.53%

14.74%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

332.79%

314.40%

5.85%

18.39%

314.45%

5.83%

119.70%

178.02%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 36.18

EUR 34.68

4.32%

EUR 1.50

EUR 30.24

19.64%

EUR 41.72

-13.28%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 87.43

GBP 83.05

5.28%

GBP 4.38

GBP 73.19

19.46%

GBP 99.90

-12.49%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 84.10

EUR 80.54

4.43%

EUR 3.57

EUR 74.59

12.76%

EUR 101.50

-17.14%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 82.21

GBP 76.63

7.28%

GBP 5.58

GBP 65.79

24.95%

GBP 94.99

-13.46%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 50.89

EUR 46.59

9.23%

EUR 4.30

EUR 54.55

-6.71%

EUR 98.98

-48.58%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 118.31

EUR 111.21

6.39%

EUR 7.11

EUR 98.46

20.16%

EUR 112.38

5.28%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$12.80

$11.97

6.92%

$0.83

$10.77

18.76%

$12.49

2.45%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/3/24

5/31/24

% Change

Change

5/3/24

% Change

6/2/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$36.18

$34.68

4.32%

$1.50

$30.24

19.64%

$41.72

-13.28%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$87.43

$83.05

5.28%

$4.38

$73.19

19.46%

$99.90

-12.49%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$84.10

$80.54

4.43%

$3.57

$74.59

12.76%

$101.50

-17.14%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$82.21

$76.63

7.28%

$5.58

$65.79

24.95%

$94.99

-13.46%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$50.89

$46.59

9.23%

$4.30

$54.55

-6.71%

$98.98

-48.58%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$118.31

$111.21

6.39%

$7.11

$98.46

20.16%

$112.38

5.28%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$12.80

$11.97

6.92%

$0.83

$10.77

18.76%

$12.49

2.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

5

1

-1

14

7

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

9

-2

3

35

10

7

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

2

-18

-24

43

-12

-5

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

18

-8

-18

66

-12

-39

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

62

7

26

411

41

-18

11.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

52

5

16

280

80

56

40.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

91

15

21

567

128

58

29.00%

11.00%

 

 

Mountain

32

-1

10

103

-47

-11

-31.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

2

-11

2

3

-56

-18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-3

4

181

13

0

8.00%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

23

-14

-8

5,743

-841

64

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

12

-14

-7

5,162

-745

52

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

30

-1

11

5,367

-1,117

-441

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

23

-4

15

5,642

-1,096

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

4

-2

-8

2,457

-405

-3

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-3

-5

3,080

-537

-17

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,059

-239

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-7

7

4,887

-268

-563

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

26

-4

-15

3,086

-85

-481

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-5

-2

3,942

-569

-238

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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