Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-05-2024

Jun 5, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:03 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.638

$2.586

2.01%

$0.052

27,483

 

 

WTI

$73.77

$73.25

0.71%

$0.52

69,939

 

 

Brent

$77.89

$77.52

0.48%

$0.37

9,168

 

 

ULSD

$2.298

$2.286

0.51%

$0.012

10,457

 

 

RBOB

$2.340

$2.349

-0.39%

-$0.009

6,856

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.47

$4.46

0.22%

$0.01

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.00

$24.33

-1.37%

-$0.33

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$63.40

$62.88

0.82%

$0.52

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/31/24

600

0

-96

06/03/23

 

 

Canada

05/31/24

128

8

31

06/03/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/28/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

102,370

101,908

101,919

-11

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,137

86,652

86,744

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

372,952

355,680

360,076

-4,396

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

165,320

147,749

140,342

7,407

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

138,849

129,904

131,438

-1,534

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,763

35,976

36,351

-375

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,431

158,110

158,895

-785

 

 

RBOB

387,565

361,987

371,841

-9,854

 

 

HSC Basis

861,661

852,844

855,979

-3,135

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/24/19

 

 

 

5/24/24

5/17/24

Net Change

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

538

511

27

5.28%

522

3.07%

442

21.66%

 

 

Midwest

652

628

24

3.82%

577

13.00%

510

27.74%

 

 

Mountain

210

202

8

3.96%

127

65.35%

125

68.27%

 

 

Pacific

267

259

8

3.09%

151

76.82%

217

23.04%

 

 

South

1,128

1,112

16

1.44%

1,070

5.42%

954

18.24%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

304

6.58%

292

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

804

793

11

1.39%

766

4.96%

662

21.38%

 

 

Total

2,795

2,711

84

3.10%

2,446

14.27%

2,248

24.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$69.06

$68.42

0.94%

$0.65

$63.09

9.47%

$61.61

12.10%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$117.54

$125.78

-6.55%

-$8.23

$121.16

-2.98%

$65.59

79.21%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$54.86

$59.46

-7.74%

-$4.60

$60.36

-9.11%

$98.37

-44.23%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$68.95

$68.39

0.82%

$0.56

$64.29

7.25%

$68.05

1.33%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$55.51

$59.40

-6.55%

-$3.89

$59.67

-6.97%

$69.30

-19.90%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$87.89

$98.60

-10.86%

-$10.71

$101.36

-13.29%

$158.14

-44.42%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$59.91

$59.87

0.07%

$0.04

$55.77

7.42%

$67.39

-11.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.586

$2.756

-6.17%

-$0.17

$2.46

4.99%

$3.28

-21.23%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.256

-$0.262

-2.40%

$0.01

-$0.22

14.51%

-$0.28

-9.68%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.536

-$0.491

-8.47%

-$0.05

-$0.29

82.28%

-$0.20

161.54%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.663

-$1.570

-5.93%

-$0.09

-$1.19

39.96%

-$0.74

123.70%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

-$0.039

$0.015

-361.33%

-$0.05

$0.27

-114.33%

$0.19

-120.36%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$1.769

-$1.795

-1.47%

$0.03

-$1.42

24.59%

-$1.38

27.98%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.083

$0.001

-9333.33%

-$0.08

$0.24

-134.41%

$1.53

-105.42%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.682

$0.685

-0.32%

$0.00

$0.69

-0.91%

$0.64

7.01%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.685

$0.692

-1.05%

-$0.01

$0.68

0.00%

$0.65

4.94%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.195

$0.195

-0.02%

$0.00

$0.19

1.27%

$0.23

-15.65%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.404

$1.441

-2.57%

-$0.04

$1.51

-7.17%

$1.36

3.01%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.724

$0.736

-1.62%

-$0.01

$0.78

-6.65%

$0.71

1.86%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$5.953

$6.005

-0.87%

-$0.05

$5.80

2.63%

$4.76

24.98%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.520

$5.600

-1.42%

-$0.08

$5.32

3.67%

$4.55

21.21%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$73.25

$74.22

-1.32%

-$0.97

$78.14

-6.26%

$68.46

7.00%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$77.67

$78.46

-1.02%

-$0.79

$83.33

-6.79%

$72.96

6.45%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$12.03

-$11.75

2.34%

-$0.28

-$10.85

10.88%

-$12.72

-5.45%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$76.46

$79.18

-3.55%

-$2.72

$79.99

-4.42%

$71.29

7.25%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$74.56

$77.22

-3.57%

-$2.67

$77.89

-4.28%

$66.84

11.55%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$75.15

$77.35

-2.92%

-$2.20

$77.80

-3.40%

$66.10

13.70%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$75.67

$76.46

-1.05%

-$0.79

$81.33

-6.96%

$71.92

5.22%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.29

$2.29

-0.09%

$0.00

$2.48

-7.59%

$2.35

-2.39%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.35

$2.40

-2.25%

-$0.05

$2.55

-8.11%

$2.22

5.87%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.25

$2.30

-2.35%

-$0.05

$2.45

-8.44%

$2.12

6.14%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.24

$2.25

-0.44%

-$0.01

$2.41

-7.05%

$2.19

2.56%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.80

$1.79

0.39%

$0.01

$1.77

1.81%

$1.72

5.07%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$665.89

$691.99

-3.77%

-$26.10

$715.82

-6.98%

$638.87

4.23%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$90.44

$94.07

-3.86%

-$3.63

$96.39

-6.18%

$91.65

-1.32%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

73.80%

53.66%

37.53%

20.14%

46.98%

57.09%

39.81%

85.38%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

73.46%

45.82%

60.32%

27.64%

45.30%

62.16%

40.95%

79.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

172.65%

114.12%

51.29%

58.53%

139.89%

23.42%

43.60%

295.99%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

92.03%

62.70%

46.78%

29.33%

54.38%

69.24%

39.12%

135.25%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

81.95%

80.86%

1.35%

1.09%

68.45%

19.72%

47.23%

73.51%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

76.99%

82.07%

-6.19%

-5.08%

72.30%

6.49%

70.69%

8.91%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

287.05%

332.79%

-13.74%

-45.74%

307.21%

-6.56%

118.52%

142.20%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 34.08

EUR 36.18

-5.82%

-EUR 2.10

EUR 31.91

6.79%

EUR 43.67

-21.98%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 81.47

GBP 87.43

-6.82%

-GBP 5.96

GBP 77.30

5.39%

GBP 105.78

-22.99%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 76.85

EUR 84.10

-8.63%

-EUR 7.26

EUR 76.80

0.05%

EUR 104.91

-26.75%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 75.83

GBP 82.21

-7.76%

-GBP 6.38

GBP 69.32

9.38%

GBP 108.79

-30.30%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 42.49

EUR 50.89

-16.51%

-EUR 8.40

EUR 60.26

-29.49%

EUR 111.52

-61.90%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 113.25

EUR 118.31

-4.28%

-EUR 5.06

EUR 103.39

9.53%

EUR 115.00

-1.52%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.61

$12.80

-9.25%

-$1.18

$11.04

5.14%

$13.19

-11.99%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/4/24

6/3/24

% Change

Change

5/6/24

% Change

6/5/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$34.08

$36.18

-5.82%

-$2.10

$31.91

6.79%

$43.67

-21.98%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$81.47

$87.43

-6.82%

-$5.96

$77.30

5.39%

$105.78

-22.99%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$76.85

$84.10

-8.63%

-$7.26

$76.80

0.05%

$104.91

-26.75%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$75.83

$82.21

-7.76%

-$6.38

$69.32

9.38%

$108.79

-30.30%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$42.49

$50.89

-16.51%

-$8.40

$60.26

-29.49%

$111.52

-61.90%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$113.25

$118.31

-4.28%

-$5.06

$103.39

9.53%

$115.00

-1.52%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.61

$12.80

-9.25%

-$1.18

$11.04

5.14%

$13.19

-11.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

5

1

-1

14

7

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

9

-2

3

35

10

7

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

2

-18

-24

43

-12

-5

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

18

-8

-18

66

-12

-39

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

62

7

26

411

41

-18

11.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

52

5

16

280

80

56

40.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

91

15

21

567

128

58

29.00%

11.00%

 

 

Mountain

32

-1

10

103

-47

-11

-31.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

2

-11

2

3

-56

-18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-3

4

181

13

0

8.00%

0.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/01/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

23

-14

-8

5,743

-841

64

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

12

-14

-7

5,162

-745

52

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

30

-1

11

5,367

-1,117

-441

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

23

-4

15

5,642

-1,096

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

4

-2

-8

2,457

-405

-3

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-3

-5

3,080

-537

-17

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,059

-239

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-7

7

4,887

-268

-563

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

26

-4

-15

3,086

-85

-481

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-5

-2

3,942

-569

-238

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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