Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-13-2023

Jun 13, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:45 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.358

$2.266

4.06%

$0.092

48,998

 

 

WTI

$69.16

$67.12

3.04%

$2.04

161,383

 

 

Brent

$74.05

$71.84

3.08%

$2.21

12,083

 

 

ULSD

$2.381

$2.309

3.13%

$0.072

10,634

 

 

RBOB

$2.561

$2.483

3.15%

$0.078

13,336

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.75

$4.55

4.40%

$0.20

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.91

$32.01

2.81%

$0.90

Jul-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$44.57

$45.73

-2.53%

-$1.16

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/09/23

695

-1

-38

06/10/22

 

 

Canada

06/09/23

136

39

-5

06/10/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/6/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,827

107,473

107,553

-80

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,540

88,897

88,963

-66

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

444,243

415,939

431,829

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

263,093

197,951

193,375

4,576

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,358

129,564

130,424

-860

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,909

34,642

34,451

191

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,119

145,079

145,698

-619

 

 

RBOB

348,574

331,135

336,064

-4,929

 

 

HSC Basis

549,105

543,125

535,865

7,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/08/18

 

 

 

6/2/23

5/26/23

Net Change

% Change

6/3/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

552

522

30

5.75%

387

42.64%

442

24.77%

 

 

Midwest

604

577

27

4.68%

445

35.73%

499

21.04%

 

 

Mountain

137

127

10

7.87%

118

16.10%

132

3.47%

 

 

Pacific

164

151

13

8.61%

206

-20.39%

246

-33.28%

 

 

South

1,093

1,070

23

2.15%

843

29.66%

924

18.26%

 

 

    Salt

319

304

15

4.93%

251

27.09%

284

12.48%

 

 

    Non_Salt

774

766

8

1.04%

593

30.52%

641

20.79%

 

 

Total

2,550

2,446

104

4.25%

1,999

27.56%

2,244

13.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$49.61

$50.58

-1.92%

-$0.97

$56.63

-12.40%

$93.54

-46.97%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$67.86

$66.64

1.84%

$1.23

$69.67

-2.59%

$92.18

-26.37%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$86.12

$87.03

-1.04%

-$0.91

$93.72

-8.11%

$126.31

-31.82%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$56.56

$57.36

-1.41%

-$0.81

$61.56

-8.12%

$97.25

-41.85%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$66.54

$67.66

-1.65%

-$1.11

$84.08

-20.86%

$77.57

-14.21%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$155.74

$150.96

3.17%

$4.78

$141.39

10.15%

$140.67

10.71%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$52.78

$54.02

-2.29%

-$1.24

$62.32

-15.30%

$73.98

-28.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.266

$2.254

0.53%

$0.01

$2.44

-7.05%

$6.03

-62.41%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.083

-$0.068

21.96%

-$0.02

-$0.18

-53.46%

-$0.20

-59.37%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.141

-$0.145

2.62%

$0.00

-$0.21

-31.34%

-$0.30

-53.01%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.693

-$0.684

-1.24%

-$0.01

-$1.23

-43.46%

-$2.57

-73.07%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.716

$1.574

9.01%

$0.14

$1.99

-13.55%

-$0.24

-819.32%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.013

-$1.025

-1.15%

$0.01

-$1.14

-11.01%

-$1.55

-34.50%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.968

$1.898

3.64%

$0.07

$1.19

65.26%

$0.60

227.88%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.557

$0.587

-5.14%

-$0.03

$0.65

-13.73%

$1.07

-47.84%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.574

$0.581

-1.27%

-$0.01

$0.67

-14.35%

$1.06

-45.64%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.184

$0.195

-5.43%

-$0.01

$0.19

-4.83%

$0.41

-55.36%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.309

$1.356

-3.47%

-$0.05

$1.37

-4.58%

$2.01

-34.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.570

$0.605

-5.83%

-$0.04

$0.72

-21.31%

$1.23

-53.85%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.544

$0.576

-5.64%

-$0.03

$0.64

-14.99%

$1.07

-49.21%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.350

$1.425

-5.25%

-$0.07

$1.40

-3.40%

$2.00

-32.47%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$67.29

$70.33

-4.52%

-$3.04

$69.83

-3.64%

$96.65

-30.38%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$71.84

$74.79

-4.11%

-$2.95

$74.76

-3.91%

$101.24

-29.04%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.44

-$11.87

-3.70%

$0.42

-$13.26

-13.69%

-$16.35

-30.01%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$69.60

$67.75

2.66%

$1.85

$72.90

-4.52%

$94.96

-26.70%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$67.48

$65.31

3.22%

$2.17

$67.78

-0.44%

$90.63

-25.54%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$67.06

$70.43

-5.01%

-$3.36

$68.51

-2.11%

$91.64

-26.81%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$71.75

$73.98

-3.11%

-$2.23

$73.90

-2.92%

$94.39

-23.98%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.31

$2.36

-2.33%

-$0.06

$2.30

0.48%

$3.33

-30.60%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.48

$2.59

-4.51%

-$0.12

$2.36

5.05%

$2.90

-14.65%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.38

$2.49

-4.69%

-$0.12

$2.26

5.27%

$2.80

-15.17%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.14

$2.25

-4.80%

-$0.11

$2.12

0.75%

$3.19

-32.89%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.40

$2.38

0.76%

$0.02

$2.32

3.49%

$2.52

-4.61%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$631.37

$653.25

-3.35%

-$21.88

$628.89

0.39%

$881.71

-28.39%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$89.25

$92.00

-2.99%

-$2.75

$87.65

1.83%

$118.14

-24.45%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-23

63.35%

66.55%

-4.81%

-3.20%

61.58%

2.87%

47.82%

32.48%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-23

55.01%

55.11%

-0.18%

-0.10%

118.58%

-53.61%

49.43%

11.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-23

93.58%

103.40%

-9.50%

-9.82%

102.09%

-8.34%

78.70%

18.91%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-23

64.02%

64.86%

-1.30%

-0.84%

69.32%

-7.65%

48.83%

31.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-23

78.71%

73.93%

6.47%

4.78%

79.84%

-1.42%

57.98%

35.75%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-23

272.24%

218.06%

24.85%

54.18%

148.61%

83.19%

75.38%

261.16%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-23

237.91%

277.39%

-14.23%

-39.48%

194.95%

22.04%

101.83%

133.63%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/12/23

6/9/23

% Change

Change

5/12/23

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-23

EUR 30.15

EUR 32.67

-7.72%

-EUR 2.52

EUR 33.50

-10.00%

EUR 73.62

-59.04%

 

 

NBP

Jul-23

GBP 73.25

GBP 84.26

-13.07%

-GBP 11.01

GBP 75.84

-3.42%

GBP 173.14

-57.69%

 

 

German Base

Jul-23

EUR 96.50

EUR 96.85

-0.36%

-EUR 0.35

EUR 92.51

4.31%

EUR 174.38

-44.66%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-23

GBP 85.43

GBP 88.42

-3.38%

-GBP 2.99

GBP 88.01

-2.93%

GBP 165.83

-48.48%

 

 

French Base

Jul-23

EUR 99.46

EUR 98.24

1.24%

EUR 1.22

EUR 101.78

-2.28%

EUR 161.77

-38.52%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-23

EUR 109.65

EUR 115.57

-5.13%

-EUR 5.92

EUR 120.63

-9.10%

EUR 185.35

-40.84%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-23

$8.33

$10.73

-22.39%

-$2.40

$10.75

-22.51%

$21.78

-61.76%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-7

-9

17

2

-33

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-18

-13

30

-17

-45

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

11

-16

2

68

-20

-40

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

47

12

19

161

40

29

33.00%

22.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

51

-14

-17

489

39

-83

9.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

55

-3

-8

289

16

-66

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

-4

-22

607

56

-151

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

-12

-28

147

-56

-80

-28.00%

-35.00%

 

 

Pacific

4

-13

-22

25

-55

-29

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-11

-12

217

-1

-59

0.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

36

44

5,737

-845

-206

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

30

14

23

5,083

-814

-131

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

0

-2

5,820

-657

-91

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-15

-13

6,520

-208

149

-3.00%

2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

2

5

2,434

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-2

0

3,099

-504

-36

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,100

-187

154

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-11

4

5,479

313

723

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

1

12

3,606

419

604

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

16

2

7

4,184

-323

126

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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