Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-14-2023

Jun 14, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:58 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.349

$2.340

0.38%

$0.009

44,021

 

 

WTI

$70.33

$69.42

1.31%

$0.91

103,146

 

 

Brent

$75.24

$74.29

1.28%

$0.95

8,802

 

 

ULSD

$2.431

$2.395

1.47%

$0.035

11,339

 

 

RBOB

$2.584

$2.558

1.00%

$0.026

8,248

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.75

$4.71

0.85%

$0.04

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.88

$32.73

0.46%

$0.15

Jul-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$44.04

$44.60

-1.26%

-$0.56

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/09/23

695

-1

-38

06/10/22

 

 

Canada

06/09/23

136

39

-5

06/10/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/6/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,827

107,473

107,553

-80

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,540

88,897

88,963

-66

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

444,243

415,939

431,829

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

263,093

197,951

193,375

4,576

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,358

129,564

130,424

-860

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,909

34,642

34,451

191

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,119

145,079

145,698

-619

 

 

RBOB

348,574

331,135

336,064

-4,929

 

 

HSC Basis

549,105

543,125

535,865

7,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/08/18

 

 

 

6/2/23

5/26/23

Net Change

% Change

6/3/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

552

522

30

5.75%

387

42.64%

442

24.77%

 

 

Midwest

604

577

27

4.68%

445

35.73%

499

21.04%

 

 

Mountain

137

127

10

7.87%

118

16.10%

132

3.47%

 

 

Pacific

164

151

13

8.61%

206

-20.39%

246

-33.28%

 

 

South

1,093

1,070

23

2.15%

843

29.66%

924

18.26%

 

 

    Salt

319

304

15

4.93%

251

27.09%

284

12.48%

 

 

    Non_Salt

774

766

8

1.04%

593

30.52%

641

20.79%

 

 

Total

2,550

2,446

104

4.25%

1,999

27.56%

2,244

13.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$49.08

$49.61

-1.06%

-$0.52

$59.50

-17.52%

$93.14

-47.31%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$66.37

$67.86

-2.20%

-$1.49

$74.05

-10.36%

$86.80

-23.53%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$79.94

$86.12

-7.17%

-$6.18

$89.63

-10.80%

$123.53

-35.28%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$56.21

$56.56

-0.62%

-$0.35

$64.82

-13.29%

$97.32

-42.24%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$69.54

$66.54

4.51%

$3.00

$81.08

-14.23%

$80.79

-13.92%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$137.34

$155.74

-11.81%

-$18.40

$138.96

-1.16%

$136.09

0.92%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$54.50

$52.78

3.25%

$1.72

$62.89

-13.34%

$76.89

-29.12%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.340

$2.266

3.27%

$0.07

$2.54

-7.95%

$5.97

-60.84%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.066

-$0.083

-20.65%

$0.02

-$0.19

-64.67%

-$0.20

-67.47%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.114

-$0.141

23.99%

$0.03

-$0.25

-55.32%

-$0.30

-62.68%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.605

-$0.693

-12.70%

$0.09

-$1.22

-50.56%

-$2.54

-76.17%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.724

$1.716

0.48%

$0.01

$1.97

-12.41%

-$0.27

-750.02%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$0.988

-$1.013

-2.48%

$0.03

-$1.28

-22.73%

-$1.53

-35.23%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.649

$1.968

-16.18%

-$0.32

$1.41

17.35%

$0.58

183.19%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.575

$0.557

3.22%

$0.02

$0.64

-10.47%

$1.05

-45.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.570

$0.574

-0.68%

$0.00

$0.65

-11.68%

$1.05

-45.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.194

$0.184

5.07%

$0.01

$0.20

-1.89%

$0.41

-52.23%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.315

$1.309

0.43%

$0.01

$1.36

-3.20%

$1.97

-33.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.580

$0.570

1.71%

$0.01

$0.70

-17.25%

$1.23

-52.72%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.558

$0.544

2.65%

$0.01

$0.64

-12.44%

$1.04

-46.44%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.372

$1.350

1.63%

$0.02

$1.38

-0.32%

$1.90

-27.60%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$69.58

$67.29

3.29%

$2.29

$70.91

-1.88%

$96.88

-28.18%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$74.29

$71.84

3.30%

$2.45

$75.02

-0.97%

$101.50

-26.81%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$12.40

-$11.44

7.72%

-$0.96

-$13.20

-6.05%

-$16.08

-22.85%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$71.79

$69.60

3.05%

$2.19

$71.19

0.85%

$96.31

-25.45%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$69.19

$67.48

2.47%

$1.71

$67.40

2.65%

$90.62

-23.65%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$69.16

$67.06

3.03%

$2.09

$68.91

0.36%

$91.57

-24.47%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$73.58

$71.75

2.50%

$1.84

$72.16

1.97%

$95.49

-22.94%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.40

$2.31

3.77%

$0.09

$2.31

3.68%

$3.31

-27.53%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.55

$2.48

3.07%

$0.08

$2.39

6.82%

$2.93

-12.93%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.45

$2.38

3.20%

$0.08

$2.29

7.12%

$2.83

-13.38%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.22

$2.14

3.97%

$0.08

$2.19

1.78%

$3.21

-30.60%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.39

$2.40

-0.50%

-$0.01

$2.36

1.10%

$2.51

-4.86%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$649.87

$631.37

2.93%

$18.51

$635.58

2.25%

$944.74

-31.21%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$91.10

$89.25

2.07%

$1.85

$90.54

0.62%

$118.51

-23.13%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-23

59.47%

63.35%

-6.12%

-3.88%

59.24%

0.39%

49.74%

19.56%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-23

48.06%

55.01%

-12.63%

-6.95%

114.68%

-58.09%

52.25%

-8.02%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-23

106.46%

93.58%

13.76%

12.88%

102.48%

3.88%

80.18%

32.78%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-23

61.30%

64.02%

-4.25%

-2.72%

65.11%

-5.85%

50.87%

20.50%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-23

77.09%

78.71%

-2.06%

-1.62%

82.63%

-6.70%

58.89%

30.91%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-23

241.66%

272.24%

-11.23%

-30.58%

150.77%

60.28%

75.96%

218.14%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-23

214.35%

237.91%

-9.90%

-23.56%

197.87%

8.33%

102.32%

109.49%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/13/23

6/12/23

% Change

Change

5/15/23

% Change

6/13/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-23

EUR 35.92

EUR 30.15

19.14%

EUR 5.77

EUR 32.99

8.87%

EUR 74.14

-51.55%

 

 

NBP

Jul-23

GBP 88.15

GBP 73.25

20.34%

GBP 14.90

GBP 74.82

17.81%

GBP 175.35

-49.73%

 

 

German Base

Jul-23

EUR 94.53

EUR 96.50

-2.05%

-EUR 1.97

EUR 93.11

1.53%

EUR 183.47

-48.48%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-23

GBP 102.25

GBP 85.43

19.69%

GBP 16.82

GBP 79.07

29.32%

GBP 167.00

-38.77%

 

 

French Base

Jul-23

EUR 107.39

EUR 99.46

7.98%

EUR 7.93

EUR 96.50

11.29%

EUR 170.29

-36.94%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-23

EUR 131.36

EUR 109.65

19.80%

EUR 21.71

EUR 110.76

18.60%

EUR 185.84

-29.31%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-23

$10.58

$8.33

27.03%

$2.25

$10.40

1.75%

$21.98

-51.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-7

-9

17

2

-33

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-18

-13

30

-17

-45

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

11

-16

2

68

-20

-40

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

47

12

19

161

40

29

33.00%

22.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

51

-14

-17

489

39

-83

9.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

55

-3

-8

289

16

-66

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

-4

-22

607

56

-151

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

-12

-28

147

-56

-80

-28.00%

-35.00%

 

 

Pacific

4

-13

-22

25

-55

-29

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-11

-12

217

-1

-59

0.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

36

44

5,737

-845

-206

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

30

14

23

5,083

-814

-131

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

0

-2

5,820

-657

-91

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-15

-13

6,520

-208

149

-3.00%

2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

2

5

2,434

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-2

0

3,099

-504

-36

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,100

-187

154

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-11

4

5,479

313

723

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

1

12

3,606

419

604

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

16

2

7

4,184

-323

126

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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