Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-15-2023

Jun 15, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:31 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.434

$2.342

3.93%

$0.092

42,409

 

 

WTI

$69.22

$68.27

1.39%

$0.95

32,280

 

 

Brent

$74.19

$73.20

1.35%

$0.99

6,765

 

 

ULSD

$2.393

$2.358

1.50%

$0.035

7,086

 

 

RBOB

$2.593

$2.555

1.49%

$0.038

6,581

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.83

$4.74

1.90%

$0.09

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$33.44

$32.94

1.53%

$0.50

Jul-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$42.42

$44.07

-3.74%

-$1.65

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/09/23

695

-1

-38

06/10/22

 

 

Canada

06/09/23

136

39

-5

06/10/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/6/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,827

107,473

107,553

-80

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,540

88,897

88,963

-66

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

444,243

415,939

431,829

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

263,093

197,951

193,375

4,576

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,358

129,564

130,424

-860

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,909

34,642

34,451

191

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,119

145,079

145,698

-619

 

 

RBOB

348,574

331,135

336,064

-4,929

 

 

HSC Basis

549,105

543,125

535,865

7,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/08/18

 

 

 

6/2/23

5/26/23

Net Change

% Change

6/3/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

552

522

30

5.75%

387

42.64%

442

24.77%

 

 

Midwest

604

577

27

4.68%

445

35.73%

499

21.04%

 

 

Mountain

137

127

10

7.87%

118

16.10%

132

3.47%

 

 

Pacific

164

151

13

8.61%

206

-20.39%

246

-33.28%

 

 

South

1,093

1,070

23

2.15%

843

29.66%

924

18.26%

 

 

    Salt

319

304

15

4.93%

251

27.09%

284

12.48%

 

 

    Non_Salt

774

766

8

1.04%

593

30.52%

641

20.79%

 

 

Total

2,550

2,446

104

4.25%

1,999

27.56%

2,244

13.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$47.62

$49.08

-2.97%

-$1.46

$58.82

-19.04%

$98.19

-51.50%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$71.98

$66.37

8.44%

$5.60

$64.58

11.45%

$93.29

-22.85%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$79.72

$79.94

-0.28%

-$0.22

$91.85

-13.21%

$132.99

-40.05%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$54.12

$56.21

-3.71%

-$2.09

$63.35

-14.56%

$102.45

-47.17%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$64.72

$69.54

-6.93%

-$4.82

$77.55

-16.54%

$93.69

-30.92%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$138.27

$137.34

0.67%

$0.92

$145.94

-5.26%

$145.64

-5.06%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$50.15

$54.50

-7.98%

-$4.35

$63.57

-21.11%

$85.43

-41.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.342

$2.340

0.09%

$0.00

$2.53

-7.58%

$5.66

-58.63%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.062

-$0.066

-6.66%

$0.00

-$0.17

-62.81%

-$0.22

-72.37%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.136

-$0.114

-16.32%

-$0.02

-$0.19

-29.68%

-$0.33

-58.54%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.548

-$0.605

-9.34%

$0.06

-$1.15

-52.45%

-$2.72

-79.87%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.730

$1.724

0.33%

$0.01

$1.95

-11.27%

-$0.32

-643.40%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$0.946

-$0.988

-4.30%

$0.04

-$1.12

-15.56%

-$1.58

-40.03%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.588

$1.649

-3.71%

-$0.06

$1.40

13.19%

$0.57

179.99%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.562

$0.575

-2.21%

-$0.01

$0.64

-12.46%

$1.01

-44.54%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.565

$0.570

-0.86%

$0.00

$0.64

-12.05%

$1.04

-45.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.196

$0.194

1.03%

$0.00

$0.20

0.02%

$0.36

-45.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.321

$1.315

0.43%

$0.01

$1.38

-4.25%

$1.97

-32.84%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.595

$0.580

2.72%

$0.02

$0.71

-15.58%

$1.24

-52.15%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.550

$0.558

-1.38%

-$0.01

$0.64

-14.18%

$1.04

-47.00%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.351

$1.372

-1.55%

-$0.02

$1.41

-4.15%

$1.97

-31.27%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$68.46

$69.58

-1.64%

-$1.12

$70.66

-3.11%

$95.30

-28.16%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$73.20

$74.29

-1.49%

-$1.09

$74.72

-2.03%

$100.10

-26.87%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$12.29

-$12.40

-0.89%

$0.11

-$13.25

-7.23%

-$17.06

-27.96%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$70.57

$71.79

-1.73%

-$1.22

$72.12

-2.15%

$101.05

-30.16%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$68.67

$69.19

-0.75%

-$0.52

$68.29

0.55%

$98.68

-30.41%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$68.68

$69.16

-0.69%

-$0.47

$68.99

-0.44%

$100.08

-31.37%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$72.92

$73.58

-0.91%

-$0.67

$73.25

-0.46%

$100.46

-27.41%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.36

$2.40

-1.59%

-$0.04

$2.34

0.77%

$3.36

-29.88%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.56

$2.55

0.24%

$0.01

$2.38

7.30%

$2.87

-10.84%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.46

$2.45

0.24%

$0.01

$2.29

7.61%

$2.77

-11.23%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.19

$2.22

-1.48%

-$0.03

$2.17

0.92%

$3.13

-29.95%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.40

$2.39

0.67%

$0.02

$2.35

2.38%

$2.52

-4.37%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$644.07

$649.87

-0.89%

-$5.80

$637.66

1.01%

$938.64

-31.38%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$90.97

$91.10

-0.14%

-$0.12

$90.68

0.33%

$120.50

-24.50%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-23

63.02%

59.47%

5.97%

3.55%

66.09%

-4.65%

55.20%

14.17%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-23

53.39%

48.06%

11.09%

5.33%

121.40%

-56.02%

60.73%

-12.09%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-23

108.30%

106.46%

1.73%

1.84%

114.57%

-5.47%

97.47%

11.11%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-23

63.59%

61.30%

3.74%

2.29%

72.38%

-12.14%

57.76%

10.09%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-23

77.32%

77.09%

0.30%

0.23%

79.07%

-2.21%

57.86%

33.63%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-23

167.36%

241.66%

-30.75%

-74.30%

144.42%

15.88%

78.70%

112.66%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-23

269.98%

214.35%

25.95%

55.63%

205.31%

31.50%

107.65%

150.79%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/23

6/13/23

% Change

Change

5/16/23

% Change

6/14/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-23

EUR 38.30

EUR 35.92

6.63%

EUR 2.38

EUR 32.35

18.40%

EUR 76.20

-49.73%

 

 

NBP

Jul-23

GBP 95.54

GBP 88.15

8.39%

GBP 7.39

GBP 73.75

29.54%

GBP 180.46

-47.06%

 

 

German Base

Jul-23

EUR 109.52

EUR 94.53

15.87%

EUR 15.00

EUR 93.57

17.05%

EUR 185.02

-40.80%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-23

GBP 105.81

GBP 102.25

3.48%

GBP 3.56

GBP 82.30

28.56%

GBP 163.07

-35.11%

 

 

French Base

Jul-23

EUR 113.01

EUR 107.39

5.23%

EUR 5.62

EUR 98.04

15.26%

EUR 163.46

-30.86%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-23

EUR 137.95

EUR 131.36

5.02%

EUR 6.59

EUR 114.80

20.17%

EUR 183.88

-24.98%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-23

$10.77

$10.58

1.76%

$0.19

$9.79

10.03%

$22.37

-51.86%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-7

-9

17

2

-33

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-18

-13

30

-17

-45

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

11

-16

2

68

-20

-40

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

47

12

19

161

40

29

33.00%

22.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

51

-14

-17

489

39

-83

9.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

55

-3

-8

289

16

-66

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

-4

-22

607

56

-151

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

-12

-28

147

-56

-80

-28.00%

-35.00%

 

 

Pacific

4

-13

-22

25

-55

-29

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-11

-12

217

-1

-59

0.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

36

44

5,737

-845

-206

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

30

14

23

5,083

-814

-131

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

0

-2

5,820

-657

-91

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-15

-13

6,520

-208

149

-3.00%

2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

2

5

2,434

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-2

0

3,099

-504

-36

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,100

-187

154

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-11

4

5,479

313

723

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

1

12

3,606

419

604

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

16

2

7

4,184

-323

126

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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