Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-16-2023

Jun 16, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:32 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.568

$2.533

1.38%

$0.035

45,722

 

 

WTI

$70.69

$70.62

0.10%

$0.07

18,869

 

 

Brent

$75.75

$75.67

0.11%

$0.08

7,671

 

 

ULSD

$2.515

$2.480

1.44%

$0.036

9,351

 

 

RBOB

$2.657

$2.642

0.58%

$0.015

6,681

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.87

$4.86

0.21%

$0.01

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.41

$34.61

2.30%

$0.80

Jul-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.21

$42.20

2.39%

$1.01

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/09/23

695

-1

-38

06/10/22

 

 

Canada

06/09/23

136

39

-5

06/10/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/6/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,827

107,473

107,553

-80

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

89,540

88,897

88,963

-66

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

444,243

415,939

431,829

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

263,093

197,951

193,375

4,576

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,358

129,564

130,424

-860

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,909

34,642

34,451

191

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,119

145,079

145,698

-619

 

 

RBOB

348,574

331,135

336,064

-4,929

 

 

HSC Basis

549,105

543,125

535,865

7,260

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/15/18

 

 

 

6/9/23

6/2/23

Net Change

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

574

552

22

3.99%

407

41.03%

466

23.07%

 

 

Midwest

632

604

28

4.64%

482

31.12%

529

19.52%

 

 

Mountain

148

137

11

8.03%

122

21.31%

138

7.56%

 

 

Pacific

176

164

12

7.32%

221

-20.36%

245

-28.28%

 

 

South

1,105

1,093

12

1.10%

863

28.04%

946

16.81%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

251

29.08%

286

13.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

781

774

7

0.90%

612

27.61%

660

18.30%

 

 

Total

2,634

2,550

84

3.29%

2,095

25.73%

2,324

13.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$48.72

$47.62

2.30%

$1.09

$58.52

-16.75%

$102.61

-52.52%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$74.26

$71.98

3.17%

$2.28

$66.21

12.16%

$85.08

-12.72%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$81.72

$79.72

2.51%

$2.00

$85.93

-4.90%

$121.24

-32.60%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$55.40

$54.12

2.36%

$1.28

$62.52

-11.39%

$107.08

-48.26%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$59.53

$64.72

-8.02%

-$5.19

$78.13

-23.81%

$86.75

-31.37%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$163.10

$138.27

17.96%

$24.84

$143.31

13.81%

$139.46

16.96%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$46.31

$50.15

-7.65%

-$3.84

$61.82

-25.08%

$83.06

-44.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.533

$2.342

8.16%

$0.19

$2.51

0.96%

$5.65

-55.20%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.089

-$0.062

43.44%

-$0.03

-$0.14

-38.84%

-$0.21

-57.68%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.175

-$0.136

-22.46%

-$0.04

-$0.13

38.77%

-$0.30

-41.92%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.622

-$0.548

-13.42%

-$0.07

-$1.09

-42.94%

-$2.43

-74.42%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.778

$1.730

2.74%

$0.05

$1.94

-8.53%

-$0.29

-711.28%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.016

-$0.946

7.38%

-$0.07

-$0.94

8.46%

-$1.32

-23.19%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.676

$1.588

5.53%

$0.09

$1.42

17.82%

$0.57

195.26%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.557

$0.562

-0.88%

$0.00

$0.65

-14.42%

$1.04

-46.18%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.555

$0.565

-1.78%

-$0.01

$0.64

-13.28%

$1.05

-47.14%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.204

$0.196

4.43%

$0.01

$0.20

3.52%

$0.39

-47.77%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.302

$1.321

-1.44%

-$0.02

$1.38

-5.97%

$1.94

-33.04%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.600

$0.595

0.74%

$0.00

$0.73

-17.41%

$1.18

-49.36%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.550

$0.550

-0.09%

$0.00

$0.65

-15.61%

$1.02

-46.18%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.362

$1.351

0.82%

$0.01

$1.39

-1.91%

$1.93

-29.54%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$70.81

$68.46

3.32%

$2.35

$72.77

-2.69%

$93.94

-24.62%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$75.67

$73.20

3.26%

$2.47

$76.81

-1.48%

$98.83

-23.43%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.82

-$12.29

-4.03%

$0.48

-$13.00

-9.10%

-$16.50

-28.39%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$73.33

$70.57

3.77%

$2.76

$74.18

-1.14%

$95.86

-23.50%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$70.43

$68.67

2.50%

$1.76

$69.99

0.63%

$91.47

-23.00%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$70.65

$68.68

2.78%

$1.97

$71.26

-0.86%

$92.43

-23.57%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$73.58

$72.92

0.90%

$0.66

$75.32

-2.31%

$95.42

-22.89%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.48

$2.36

5.17%

$0.12

$2.40

3.12%

$3.37

-26.34%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.63

$2.56

2.81%

$0.07

$2.49

5.62%

$2.88

-8.80%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.53

$2.46

2.93%

$0.07

$2.39

5.86%

$2.79

-9.12%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.28

$2.19

4.15%

$0.09

$2.22

2.98%

$3.38

-32.42%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.45

$2.40

1.75%

$0.04

$2.34

4.48%

$2.51

-2.32%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$668.74

$644.07

3.83%

$24.67

$652.03

2.56%

$953.60

-29.87%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$88.72

$90.97

-2.48%

-$2.26

$88.27

0.51%

$124.00

-28.45%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

71.73%

67.22%

6.71%

4.51%

66.85%

7.30%

45.23%

58.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

74.77%

69.37%

7.78%

5.40%

119.93%

-37.66%

50.76%

47.30%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

102.07%

107.56%

-5.10%

-5.49%

108.17%

-5.64%

97.48%

4.71%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

72.27%

68.92%

4.86%

3.35%

70.94%

1.87%

48.96%

47.61%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

72.49%

74.54%

-2.75%

-2.05%

78.29%

-7.41%

58.59%

23.72%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

149.53%

146.02%

2.40%

3.51%

158.71%

-5.78%

87.91%

70.09%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

235.23%

231.10%

1.79%

4.13%

196.18%

19.91%

100.96%

132.99%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/15/23

6/14/23

% Change

Change

5/17/23

% Change

6/15/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 39.61

EUR 38.57

2.69%

EUR 1.04

EUR 33.16

19.45%

EUR 75.79

-47.74%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 99.69

GBP 97.72

2.02%

GBP 1.97

GBP 80.35

24.08%

GBP 193.70

-48.53%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 138.28

EUR 113.73

21.58%

EUR 24.55

EUR 96.18

43.78%

EUR 196.06

-29.47%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 103.86

GBP 101.55

2.28%

GBP 2.31

GBP 88.49

17.37%

GBP 160.59

-35.32%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 145.61

EUR 112.62

29.29%

EUR 32.99

EUR 94.16

54.64%

EUR 181.55

-19.80%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 164.09

EUR 138.05

18.86%

EUR 26.04

EUR 116.20

41.21%

EUR 190.17

-13.72%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$10.78

$10.77

0.13%

$0.01

$10.28

4.92%

$26.92

-59.96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-7

-9

17

2

-33

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-18

-13

30

-17

-45

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

11

-16

2

68

-20

-40

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

47

12

19

161

40

29

33.00%

22.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

51

-14

-17

489

39

-83

9.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

55

-3

-8

289

16

-66

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

-4

-22

607

56

-151

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

-12

-28

147

-56

-80

-28.00%

-35.00%

 

 

Pacific

4

-13

-22

25

-55

-29

NA

NA

 

 

United States

30

-11

-12

217

-1

-59

0.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/10/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

36

44

5,737

-845

-206

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

30

14

23

5,083

-814

-131

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

0

-2

5,820

-657

-91

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

-15

-13

6,520

-208

149

-3.00%

2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

2

5

2,434

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-2

0

3,099

-504

-36

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

2,100

-187

154

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-11

4

5,479

313

723

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

1

12

3,606

419

604

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

16

2

7

4,184

-323

126

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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