Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-17-2024

Jun 17, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:43 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.786

$2.881

-3.30%

-$0.095

51,556

 

 

WTI

$79.42

$78.45

1.24%

$0.97

44,418

 

 

Brent

$83.22

$82.62

0.73%

$0.60

11,989

 

 

ULSD

$2.491

$2.471

0.84%

$0.021

8,885

 

 

RBOB

$2.420

$2.400

0.83%

$0.020

6,107

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.51

$4.57

-1.31%

-$0.06

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.77

$23.58

0.81%

$0.19

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$84.32

$81.93

2.93%

$2.40

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/14/24

590

-4

-97

06/17/23

 

 

Canada

06/14/24

160

17

1

06/17/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/07/19

 

 

 

6/7/24

5/31/24

Net Change

% Change

6/9/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

603

575

28

4.87%

574

5.05%

494

22.16%

 

 

Midwest

712

681

31

4.55%

632

12.66%

568

25.31%

 

 

Mountain

224

218

6

2.75%

148

51.35%

140

59.54%

 

 

Pacific

276

273

3

1.10%

176

56.82%

230

20.00%

 

 

South

1,159

1,146

13

1.13%

1,105

4.89%

996

16.41%

 

 

    Salt

336

330

6

1.82%

324

3.70%

298

12.90%

 

 

    Non_Salt

823

817

6

0.73%

781

5.38%

698

17.91%

 

 

Total

2,974

2,893

81

2.80%

2,634

12.91%

2,427

22.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$90.29

$88.09

2.50%

$2.20

$70.39

28.28%

$60.48

49.30%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$97.63

$98.61

-0.99%

-$0.98

$145.76

-33.02%

$67.67

44.29%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$51.41

$52.71

-2.46%

-$1.30

$59.00

-12.85%

$103.39

-50.27%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$86.75

$83.67

3.69%

$3.08

$70.00

23.92%

$67.76

28.03%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$80.52

$79.11

1.78%

$1.41

$63.49

26.83%

$70.14

14.80%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$79.00

$85.26

-7.34%

-$6.26

$97.57

-19.03%

$160.93

-50.91%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$76.32

$75.14

1.57%

$1.18

$61.32

24.47%

$68.26

11.81%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.881

$2.959

-2.64%

-$0.08

$2.69

7.22%

$3.34

-13.79%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.246

-$0.256

-4.02%

$0.01

-$0.23

8.28%

-$0.26

-7.25%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.492

-$0.541

10.00%

$0.05

-$0.37

33.28%

-$0.19

159.25%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.414

-$1.503

-5.89%

$0.09

-$1.31

8.00%

-$0.69

105.70%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.287

$0.240

19.67%

$0.05

$0.19

50.68%

$0.16

82.78%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.378

-$2.417

-1.62%

$0.04

-$1.69

40.53%

-$1.38

72.63%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.477

-$0.391

21.74%

-$0.09

$0.24

-299.46%

$1.65

-128.95%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.799

$0.790

1.11%

$0.01

$0.68

16.61%

$0.62

29.17%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.801

$0.791

1.26%

$0.01

$0.69

16.34%

$0.62

29.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.209

$0.210

-0.60%

$0.00

$0.20

2.42%

$0.23

-9.70%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.503

$1.506

-0.25%

$0.00

$1.52

-1.13%

$1.31

14.70%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.838

$0.837

0.14%

$0.00

$0.78

6.90%

$0.69

20.89%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.178

$6.138

0.65%

$0.04

$5.90

4.75%

$4.73

30.49%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.656

$5.700

-0.78%

-$0.04

$5.28

7.12%

$4.32

30.79%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$78.05

$78.26

-0.27%

-$0.21

$78.27

-0.28%

$68.00

14.78%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$82.62

$82.75

-0.16%

-$0.13

$82.87

-0.30%

$72.72

13.61%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.75

-$13.05

5.08%

-$0.70

-$10.80

27.31%

-$12.88

6.74%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$80.29

$80.13

0.19%

$0.16

$79.69

0.75%

$70.96

13.14%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$78.24

$78.18

0.07%

$0.06

$77.44

1.03%

$64.27

21.72%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$78.30

$78.18

0.15%

$0.11

$77.70

0.76%

$64.80

20.83%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$80.62

$80.75

-0.16%

-$0.13

$80.87

-0.31%

$70.30

14.68%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.48

$2.48

-0.28%

-$0.01

$2.46

0.49%

$2.27

9.32%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.40

$2.39

0.46%

$0.01

$2.53

-4.79%

$2.22

8.19%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.30

$2.29

0.48%

$0.01

$2.42

-4.99%

$2.12

8.58%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.44

$2.47

-1.05%

-$0.03

$2.41

1.24%

$2.17

12.29%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.92

$1.94

-0.88%

-$0.02

$1.81

6.08%

$1.76

8.97%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$723.00

$718.28

0.66%

$4.72

$712.02

1.54%

$616.08

17.35%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$98.01

$96.80

1.25%

$1.21

$95.78

2.33%

$86.31

13.56%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

69.51%

69.38%

0.19%

0.13%

51.55%

34.84%

47.70%

45.72%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

80.38%

83.17%

-3.35%

-2.79%

55.32%

45.30%

47.95%

67.63%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

105.20%

107.33%

-1.98%

-2.13%

103.02%

2.12%

48.86%

115.31%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

78.24%

83.28%

-6.05%

-5.04%

60.24%

29.88%

48.25%

62.16%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

107.64%

107.67%

-0.03%

-0.03%

70.91%

51.80%

45.91%

134.46%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

72.19%

106.03%

-31.92%

-33.84%

73.93%

-2.35%

83.78%

-13.83%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

369.49%

353.87%

4.41%

15.62%

396.84%

-6.89%

174.63%

111.58%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 36.09

EUR 36.10

-0.02%

-EUR 0.01

EUR 31.27

15.43%

EUR 51.89

-30.44%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 85.00

GBP 85.88

-1.02%

-GBP 0.88

GBP 75.44

12.68%

GBP 127.94

-33.56%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 79.08

EUR 80.54

-1.81%

-EUR 1.45

EUR 74.92

5.56%

EUR 144.32

-45.20%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 74.65

GBP 74.88

-0.30%

-GBP 0.22

GBP 67.22

11.05%

GBP 114.33

-34.71%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 40.77

EUR 42.33

-3.69%

-EUR 1.56

EUR 53.85

-24.29%

EUR 135.27

-69.86%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 104.90

EUR 108.02

-2.88%

-EUR 3.11

EUR 97.78

7.28%

EUR 145.86

-28.08%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$11.93

$12.33

-3.28%

-$0.40

$10.95

8.92%

$16.99

-29.77%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/14/24

6/13/24

% Change

Change

5/16/24

% Change

6/15/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$36.09

$36.10

-0.02%

-$0.01

$31.27

15.43%

$51.89

-30.44%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$85.00

$85.88

-1.02%

-$0.88

$75.44

12.68%

$127.94

-33.56%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$79.08

$80.54

-1.81%

-$1.45

$74.92

5.56%

$144.32

-45.20%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$74.65

$74.88

-0.30%

-$0.22

$67.22

11.05%

$114.33

-34.71%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$40.77

$42.33

-3.69%

-$1.56

$53.85

-24.29%

$135.27

-69.86%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$104.90

$108.02

-2.88%

-$3.11

$97.78

7.28%

$145.86

-28.08%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$11.93

$12.33

-3.28%

-$0.40

$10.95

8.92%

$16.99

-29.77%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

-2

1

39

16

12

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

14

-9

3

74

10

33

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

25

-6

18

95

-16

23

-14.00%

32.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

20

152

1

-30

1.00%

-16.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

78

7

18

566

64

21

13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

65

0

14

410

89

74

28.00%

22.00%

 

 

W S Central

108

11

2

781

158

81

25.00%

12.00%

 

 

Mountain

65

16

39

227

-12

57

-5.00%

34.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

3

21

46

-49

18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

48

2

15

278

26

31

10.00%

13.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

15

-3

-5

5,766

-862

8

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-3

-5

5,172

-764

23

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

16

2

-13

5,392

-1,128

-463

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

-6

-6

5,656

-1,114

-878

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-2

-2

2,458

-410

-8

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

0

-2

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-18

-18

4,898

-306

-593

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

11

-9

-9

3,109

-106

-497

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

7

-4

-7

3,954

-583

-255

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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