Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-18-2024

Jun 18, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:53 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.858

$2.788

2.51%

$0.070

53,067

 

 

WTI

$81.20

$80.33

1.08%

$0.87

34,904

 

 

Brent

$84.92

$84.25

0.80%

$0.67

19,781

 

 

ULSD

$2.508

$2.483

1.03%

$0.025

11,064

 

 

RBOB

$2.473

$2.447

1.07%

$0.026

6,849

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.44

$4.53

-1.99%

-$0.09

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.57

$23.30

1.14%

$0.27

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$83.19

$84.33

-1.35%

-$1.13

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/14/24

590

-4

-97

06/17/23

 

 

Canada

06/14/24

160

17

1

06/17/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/07/19

 

 

 

6/7/24

5/31/24

Net Change

% Change

6/9/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

603

575

28

4.87%

574

5.05%

494

22.16%

 

 

Midwest

712

681

31

4.55%

632

12.66%

568

25.31%

 

 

Mountain

224

218

6

2.75%

148

51.35%

140

59.54%

 

 

Pacific

276

273

3

1.10%

176

56.82%

230

20.00%

 

 

South

1,159

1,146

13

1.13%

1,105

4.89%

996

16.41%

 

 

    Salt

336

330

6

1.82%

324

3.70%

298

12.90%

 

 

    Non_Salt

823

817

6

0.73%

781

5.38%

698

17.91%

 

 

Total

2,974

2,893

81

2.80%

2,634

12.91%

2,427

22.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$89.30

$90.29

-1.10%

-$0.99

$69.74

28.05%

$61.05

46.27%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$95.87

$97.63

-1.81%

-$1.77

$130.43

-26.50%

$65.91

45.46%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$48.03

$51.41

-6.58%

-$3.38

$57.96

-17.14%

$98.02

-51.00%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$83.32

$86.75

-3.95%

-$3.43

$69.31

20.21%

$68.26

22.07%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$80.80

$80.52

0.34%

$0.28

$63.99

26.27%

$70.98

13.83%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$73.44

$79.00

-7.04%

-$5.56

$96.69

-24.04%

$149.81

-50.98%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$77.16

$76.32

1.09%

$0.83

$63.41

21.67%

$69.11

11.64%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.788

$2.881

-3.23%

-$0.09

$2.79

-0.04%

$3.35

-16.88%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.248

-$0.246

0.69%

$0.00

-$0.23

7.10%

-$0.25

-1.90%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.468

-$0.492

5.04%

$0.02

-$0.39

19.35%

-$0.18

159.97%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.380

-$1.414

-2.40%

$0.03

-$1.41

-1.80%

-$0.65

111.07%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.399

$0.287

39.29%

$0.11

$0.17

132.36%

$0.16

153.94%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.323

-$2.378

-2.33%

$0.06

-$1.76

32.08%

-$1.37

69.32%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.537

-$0.477

12.72%

-$0.06

$0.18

-398.55%

$1.62

-133.15%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.794

$0.799

-0.63%

-$0.01

$0.70

13.38%

$0.63

26.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.801

$0.801

0.00%

$0.00

$0.70

14.05%

$0.63

27.66%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.202

$0.209

-3.02%

-$0.01

$0.21

-3.63%

$0.24

-14.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.528

$1.503

1.67%

$0.03

$1.53

-0.21%

$1.32

15.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.854

$0.838

1.90%

$0.02

$0.79

8.11%

$0.70

22.75%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.178

$6.178

0.00%

$0.00

$6.02

2.62%

$4.71

31.11%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.694

$5.656

0.68%

$0.04

$5.40

5.44%

$4.34

31.16%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$79.72

$78.05

2.09%

$1.67

$79.12

0.76%

$68.86

15.77%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$84.25

$82.62

1.93%

$1.63

$83.63

0.74%

$73.53

14.58%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.50

-$13.75

-1.84%

$0.25

-$10.80

25.01%

-$12.93

4.43%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$79.99

$80.29

-0.37%

-$0.29

$80.08

-0.10%

$71.00

12.66%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$77.89

$78.24

-0.44%

-$0.34

$78.03

-0.17%

$67.09

16.10%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$78.08

$78.30

-0.28%

-$0.22

$78.29

-0.27%

$67.43

15.80%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$82.25

$80.62

1.98%

$1.63

$81.63

0.76%

$72.41

13.60%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.49

$2.48

0.40%

$0.01

$2.50

-0.64%

$2.40

3.50%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.44

$2.40

1.71%

$0.04

$2.51

-2.55%

$2.24

8.91%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.35

$2.30

1.78%

$0.04

$2.41

-2.66%

$2.14

9.32%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.45

$2.44

0.37%

$0.01

$2.47

-0.77%

$2.23

9.97%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.89

$1.92

-1.30%

-$0.02

$1.80

5.28%

$1.80

5.22%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$722.50

$723.00

-0.07%

-$0.50

$723.84

-0.19%

$647.06

11.66%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$97.65

$98.01

-0.37%

-$0.36

$96.86

0.81%

$89.77

8.77%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

66.70%

69.51%

-4.04%

-2.81%

48.56%

37.36%

44.45%

50.06%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

79.14%

80.38%

-1.54%

-1.24%

47.85%

65.39%

44.48%

77.92%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

101.92%

105.20%

-3.12%

-3.28%

91.10%

11.88%

46.89%

117.36%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

75.99%

78.24%

-2.88%

-2.25%

54.19%

40.23%

44.46%

70.92%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

106.62%

107.64%

-0.95%

-1.02%

73.51%

45.04%

46.61%

128.75%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

111.99%

72.19%

55.13%

39.80%

111.26%

0.66%

84.11%

33.15%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

355.45%

369.49%

-3.80%

-14.04%

400.53%

-11.26%

174.81%

103.34%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.66

EUR 36.09

-3.97%

-EUR 1.43

EUR 31.36

10.52%

EUR 49.33

-29.74%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 82.36

GBP 85.00

-3.11%

-GBP 2.65

GBP 75.83

8.61%

GBP 122.19

-32.60%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 75.67

EUR 79.08

-4.31%

-EUR 3.41

EUR 74.90

1.03%

EUR 134.81

-43.87%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 73.34

GBP 74.65

-1.75%

-GBP 1.31

GBP 68.62

6.88%

GBP 110.16

-33.42%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 41.26

EUR 40.77

1.20%

EUR 0.49

EUR 53.79

-23.30%

EUR 119.39

-65.44%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 102.22

EUR 104.90

-2.56%

-EUR 2.68

EUR 97.56

4.78%

EUR 128.59

-20.51%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$11.87

$11.93

-0.50%

-$0.06

$11.20

5.99%

$15.53

-23.57%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/17/24

6/14/24

% Change

Change

5/17/24

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.66

$36.09

-3.97%

-$1.43

$31.36

10.52%

$49.33

-29.74%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$82.36

$85.00

-3.11%

-$2.65

$75.83

8.61%

$122.19

-32.60%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$75.67

$79.08

-4.31%

-$3.41

$74.90

1.03%

$134.81

-43.87%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$73.34

$74.65

-1.75%

-$1.31

$68.62

6.88%

$110.16

-33.42%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$41.26

$40.77

1.20%

$0.49

$53.79

-23.30%

$119.39

-65.44%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$102.22

$104.90

-2.56%

-$2.68

$97.56

4.78%

$128.59

-20.51%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$11.87

$11.93

-0.50%

-$0.06

$11.20

5.99%

$15.53

-23.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

-2

1

39

16

12

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

14

-9

3

74

10

33

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

25

-6

18

95

-16

23

-14.00%

32.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

20

152

1

-30

1.00%

-16.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

78

7

18

566

64

21

13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

65

0

14

410

89

74

28.00%

22.00%

 

 

W S Central

108

11

2

781

158

81

25.00%

12.00%

 

 

Mountain

65

16

39

227

-12

57

-5.00%

34.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

3

21

46

-49

18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

48

2

15

278

26

31

10.00%

13.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

15

-3

-5

5,766

-862

8

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-3

-5

5,172

-764

23

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

16

2

-13

5,392

-1,128

-463

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

-6

-6

5,656

-1,114

-878

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-2

-2

2,458

-410

-8

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

0

-2

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-18

-18

4,898

-306

-593

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

11

-9

-9

3,109

-106

-497

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

7

-4

-7

3,954

-583

-255

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe” filled=”f” stroked=”f”>

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.