Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-20-2024

Jun 20, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.859

$2.909

-1.72%

-$0.050

65,260

 

 

WTI

$82.20

$81.57

0.77%

$0.63

5,672

 

 

Brent

$85.58

$85.33

0.29%

$0.25

30,220

 

 

ULSD

$2.534

$2.521

0.52%

$0.013

7,226

 

 

RBOB

$2.500

$2.483

0.67%

$0.017

6,909

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.54

$4.62

-1.73%

-$0.08

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.14

$23.82

1.34%

$0.32

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$85.43

$83.08

2.83%

$2.35

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/14/24

590

-4

-97

06/17/23

 

 

Canada

06/14/24

160

17

1

06/17/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/07/19

 

 

 

6/7/24

5/31/24

Net Change

% Change

6/9/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

603

575

28

4.87%

574

5.05%

494

22.16%

 

 

Midwest

712

681

31

4.55%

632

12.66%

568

25.31%

 

 

Mountain

224

218

6

2.75%

148

51.35%

140

59.54%

 

 

Pacific

276

273

3

1.10%

176

56.82%

230

20.00%

 

 

South

1,159

1,146

13

1.13%

1,105

4.89%

996

16.41%

 

 

    Salt

336

330

6

1.82%

324

3.70%

298

12.90%

 

 

    Non_Salt

823

817

6

0.73%

781

5.38%

698

17.91%

 

 

Total

2,974

2,893

81

2.80%

2,634

12.91%

2,427

22.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$91.51

$89.30

2.47%

$2.21

$76.24

20.03%

$59.98

52.58%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$97.65

$95.87

1.86%

$1.78

$128.20

-23.83%

$71.24

37.06%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$49.00

$48.03

2.02%

$0.97

$57.19

-14.33%

$103.58

-52.69%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$88.60

$83.32

6.34%

$5.28

$74.82

18.42%

$67.06

32.13%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$85.73

$80.80

6.10%

$4.93

$66.53

28.86%

$71.03

20.70%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$72.24

$73.44

-1.63%

-$1.20

$95.27

-24.17%

$155.32

-53.49%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$82.15

$77.16

6.47%

$4.99

$65.85

24.75%

$68.01

20.80%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.909

$2.788

4.34%

$0.12

$2.90

0.28%

$3.31

-11.98%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.299

-$0.248

20.93%

-$0.05

-$0.25

19.05%

-$0.25

18.44%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.479

-$0.468

-2.19%

-$0.01

-$0.43

10.32%

-$0.19

155.31%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.446

-$1.380

-4.78%

-$0.07

-$1.48

-2.60%

-$0.66

119.41%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.388

$0.399

-2.78%

-$0.01

$0.07

477.53%

$0.15

158.73%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.346

-$2.323

1.02%

-$0.02

-$1.86

25.83%

-$1.35

73.98%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.537

-$0.537

-0.04%

$0.00

$0.08

-732.39%

$1.63

-132.91%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.787

$0.794

-0.79%

-$0.01

$0.71

11.30%

$0.63

25.57%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.792

$0.801

-1.09%

-$0.01

$0.71

12.01%

$0.63

25.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.200

$0.202

-1.23%

$0.00

$0.21

-5.36%

$0.24

-14.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.520

$1.528

-0.49%

-$0.01

$1.54

-1.10%

$1.36

12.16%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.856

$0.854

0.23%

$0.00

$0.80

6.81%

$0.68

25.51%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.270

$6.178

1.49%

$0.09

$6.06

3.48%

$4.79

30.86%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.790

$5.694

1.68%

$0.10

$5.55

4.32%

$4.47

29.63%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$80.71

$79.72

1.23%

$0.99

$78.90

2.29%

$68.22

18.31%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.33

$84.25

1.27%

$1.08

$83.46

2.24%

$72.83

17.16%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.50

-$13.50

0.00%

$0.00

-$10.75

25.60%

-$12.93

4.42%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$81.40

$79.99

1.72%

$1.40

$81.22

0.21%

$70.17

16.01%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$79.55

$77.89

2.08%

$1.65

$78.92

0.79%

$64.70

22.94%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$79.72

$78.08

2.06%

$1.64

$79.14

0.73%

$66.58

19.73%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.33

$82.25

1.30%

$1.08

$81.46

2.30%

$69.87

19.26%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.52

$2.49

1.49%

$0.04

$2.50

1.00%

$2.34

7.82%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.45

$2.44

0.29%

$0.01

$2.53

-2.93%

$2.20

11.56%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.35

$2.35

0.30%

$0.01

$2.43

-3.05%

$2.10

12.11%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.48

$2.45

1.27%

$0.03

$2.44

1.72%

$2.08

19.12%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.95

$1.89

2.74%

$0.05

$1.81

7.39%

$1.82

6.74%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$736.75

$722.50

1.97%

$14.25

$724.75

1.65%

$623.68

18.13%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$97.73

$97.65

0.08%

$0.08

$97.86

-0.13%

$89.27

9.47%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

59.26%

66.70%

-11.15%

-7.44%

52.46%

12.96%

50.27%

17.88%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

72.58%

79.14%

-8.29%

-6.56%

52.18%

39.10%

50.61%

43.41%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

89.61%

101.92%

-12.08%

-12.31%

100.96%

-11.24%

53.40%

67.81%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

68.25%

75.99%

-10.19%

-7.74%

58.89%

15.89%

50.54%

35.04%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

106.33%

106.62%

-0.27%

-0.29%

74.52%

42.69%

45.75%

132.42%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

85.27%

111.99%

-23.86%

-26.72%

115.23%

-26.00%

84.08%

1.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

354.32%

355.45%

-0.32%

-1.13%

397.76%

-10.92%

173.82%

103.84%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.94

EUR 34.66

0.79%

EUR 0.27

EUR 32.33

8.07%

EUR 51.65

-32.36%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 83.15

GBP 82.36

0.96%

GBP 0.79

GBP 77.88

6.77%

GBP 129.10

-35.59%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 76.50

EUR 75.67

1.10%

EUR 0.83

EUR 78.71

-2.81%

EUR 134.78

-43.24%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 72.74

GBP 73.34

-0.82%

-GBP 0.60

GBP 69.38

4.85%

GBP 111.37

-34.68%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 39.00

EUR 41.26

-5.48%

-EUR 2.26

EUR 55.85

-30.17%

EUR 127.92

-69.51%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 104.83

EUR 102.22

2.55%

EUR 2.61

EUR 102.42

2.35%

EUR 139.62

-24.92%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.28

$11.87

3.51%

$0.42

$11.66

5.40%

$15.76

-22.02%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/18/24

6/17/24

% Change

Change

5/20/24

% Change

6/20/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.94

$34.66

0.79%

$0.27

$32.33

8.07%

$51.65

-32.36%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$83.15

$82.36

0.96%

$0.79

$77.88

6.77%

$129.10

-35.59%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$76.50

$75.67

1.10%

$0.83

$78.71

-2.81%

$134.78

-43.24%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$72.74

$73.34

-0.82%

-$0.60

$69.38

4.85%

$111.37

-34.68%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$39.00

$41.26

-5.48%

-$2.26

$55.85

-30.17%

$127.92

-69.51%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$104.83

$102.22

2.55%

$2.61

$102.42

2.35%

$139.62

-24.92%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.28

$11.87

3.51%

$0.42

$11.66

5.40%

$15.76

-22.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

-2

1

39

16

12

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

14

-9

3

74

10

33

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

25

-6

18

95

-16

23

-14.00%

32.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

20

152

1

-30

1.00%

-16.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

78

7

18

566

64

21

13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

65

0

14

410

89

74

28.00%

22.00%

 

 

W S Central

108

11

2

781

158

81

25.00%

12.00%

 

 

Mountain

65

16

39

227

-12

57

-5.00%

34.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

3

21

46

-49

18

NA

NA

 

 

United States

48

2

15

278

26

31

10.00%

13.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/15/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

15

-3

-5

5,766

-862

8

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-3

-5

5,172

-764

23

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

16

2

-13

5,392

-1,128

-463

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

7

-6

-6

5,656

-1,114

-878

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-2

-2

2,458

-410

-8

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

0

-2

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-18

-18

4,898

-306

-593

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

11

-9

-9

3,109

-106

-497

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

7

-4

-7

3,954

-583

-255

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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