Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-21-2023

Jun 21, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.516

$2.492

0.96%

$0.024

37,914

 

 

WTI

$71.72

$70.50

1.73%

$1.22

107,827

 

 

Brent

$76.29

$75.90

0.51%

$0.39

10,824

 

 

ULSD

$2.485

$2.475

0.37%

$0.009

7,273

 

 

RBOB

$2.589

$2.609

-0.78%

-$0.020

7,764

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.58

$4.71

-2.76%

-$0.13

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.64

$33.48

-2.50%

-$0.84

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.54

$43.71

-4.95%

-$2.17

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/16/23

687

-8

-53

06/17/22

 

 

Canada

06/16/23

159

23

3

06/17/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/13/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

112,313

111,944

112,065

-121

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,782

92,142

92,189

-47

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

445,336

417,190

433,080

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

266,008

200,982

195,005

5,977

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

147,598

136,428

139,549

-3,121

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,340

37,001

36,913

88

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,633

150,784

151,353

-569

 

 

RBOB

340,409

320,121

325,069

-4,948

 

 

HSC Basis

570,797

565,221

559,003

6,218

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/15/18

 

 

 

6/9/23

6/2/23

Net Change

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

574

552

22

3.99%

407

41.03%

466

23.07%

 

 

Midwest

632

604

28

4.64%

482

31.12%

529

19.52%

 

 

Mountain

148

137

11

8.03%

122

21.31%

138

7.56%

 

 

Pacific

176

164

12

7.32%

221

-20.36%

245

-28.28%

 

 

South

1,105

1,093

12

1.10%

863

28.04%

946

16.81%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

251

29.08%

286

13.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

781

774

7

0.90%

612

27.61%

660

18.30%

 

 

Total

2,634

2,550

84

3.29%

2,095

25.73%

2,324

13.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$46.93

$49.04

-4.30%

-$2.11

$60.67

-22.64%

$108.33

-56.67%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$83.20

$77.65

7.15%

$5.55

$63.43

31.16%

$79.07

5.22%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$86.41

$81.86

5.55%

$4.55

$88.41

-2.26%

$117.53

-26.48%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$51.19

$54.77

-6.54%

-$3.58

$64.87

-21.09%

$111.50

-54.09%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$71.02

$65.14

9.03%

$5.88

$83.67

-15.12%

$90.10

-21.17%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$152.23

$147.93

2.91%

$4.30

$141.51

7.57%

$134.50

13.18%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$55.22

$50.38

9.60%

$4.84

$67.32

-17.98%

$84.98

-35.03%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.492

$2.632

-5.32%

-$0.14

$2.71

-7.94%

$5.02

-50.33%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.093

-$0.080

15.17%

-$0.01

-$0.15

-37.09%

-$0.22

-57.64%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.185

-$0.165

-11.08%

-$0.02

-$0.17

10.77%

-$0.28

-33.94%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.566

-$0.584

-3.05%

$0.02

-$1.07

-46.99%

-$2.33

-75.70%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.673

$1.588

5.30%

$0.08

$1.88

-10.80%

-$0.33

-601.05%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.138

-$1.105

2.93%

-$0.03

-$1.13

0.91%

-$1.29

-11.49%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.530

$1.498

2.16%

$0.03

$1.75

-12.78%

$0.56

172.20%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.572

$0.569

0.63%

$0.00

$0.63

-9.67%

$1.05

-45.22%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.565

$0.568

-0.46%

$0.00

$0.64

-11.73%

$1.06

-46.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.213

$0.213

0.00%

$0.00

$0.21

3.66%

$0.37

-42.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.350

$1.327

1.79%

$0.02

$1.39

-3.15%

$1.99

-32.17%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.605

$0.612

-1.23%

-$0.01

$0.72

-15.74%

$1.23

-50.89%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.563

$0.559

0.76%

$0.00

$0.65

-12.73%

$1.05

-46.33%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.367

$1.395

-2.04%

-$0.03

$1.42

-3.42%

$1.95

-30.00%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$71.19

$71.93

-1.04%

-$0.74

$71.59

-0.56%

$90.36

-21.22%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$75.90

$76.61

-0.94%

-$0.71

$75.47

0.57%

$95.38

-20.42%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.77

-$11.81

-0.32%

$0.04

-$13.25

-11.19%

-$17.11

-31.23%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$73.07

$74.07

-1.38%

-$1.01

$73.27

-0.28%

$90.69

-19.43%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$71.57

$70.38

1.67%

$1.20

$69.49

3.00%

$85.20

-15.99%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$70.90

$71.45

-0.78%

-$0.55

$70.17

1.03%

$86.28

-17.83%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$76.65

$75.27

1.80%

$1.38

$74.30

3.16%

$90.11

-14.93%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.48

$2.55

-2.98%

-$0.08

$2.36

5.09%

$3.24

-23.67%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.57

$2.65

-3.31%

-$0.09

$2.50

2.68%

$2.96

-13.19%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.47

$2.56

-3.44%

-$0.09

$2.40

2.79%

$2.86

-13.65%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.29

$2.33

-1.80%

-$0.04

$2.21

3.71%

$3.12

-26.56%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.50

$2.49

0.56%

$0.01

$2.31

8.55%

$2.49

0.28%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$661.50

$688.61

-3.94%

-$27.11

$643.25

2.84%

$874.30

-24.34%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$92.51

$92.71

-0.22%

-$0.20

$90.10

2.68%

$126.49

-26.86%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

79.99%

68.93%

16.05%

11.06%

69.79%

14.62%

49.76%

60.75%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

81.45%

70.96%

14.78%

10.49%

127.73%

-36.23%

58.74%

38.66%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

105.45%

98.10%

7.49%

7.35%

103.24%

2.14%

118.39%

-10.93%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

83.07%

69.70%

19.18%

13.37%

71.66%

15.92%

52.83%

57.24%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

76.04%

77.08%

-1.35%

-1.04%

78.49%

-3.12%

56.71%

34.09%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

153.00%

152.79%

0.14%

0.21%

134.91%

13.41%

81.66%

87.36%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

233.93%

236.12%

-0.93%

-2.19%

198.42%

17.90%

100.87%

131.91%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/20/23

6/16/23

% Change

Change

5/19/23

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 37.59

EUR 33.85

11.05%

EUR 3.74

EUR 31.39

19.76%

EUR 77.62

-51.57%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 93.18

GBP 84.29

10.55%

GBP 8.89

GBP 74.54

25.01%

GBP 181.90

-48.77%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 117.56

EUR 110.33

6.55%

EUR 7.23

EUR 93.63

25.56%

EUR 197.30

-40.42%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 104.00

GBP 86.80

19.81%

GBP 17.20

GBP 86.47

20.27%

GBP 168.12

-38.14%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 118.64

EUR 105.01

12.98%

EUR 13.63

EUR 93.67

26.66%

EUR 180.07

-34.11%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 138.00

EUR 120.19

14.81%

EUR 17.80

EUR 116.02

18.94%

EUR 191.41

-27.91%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$11.26

$8.11

38.78%

$3.15

$9.98

12.76%

$24.52

-54.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

10

-2

-7

27

0

-40

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

13

-12

-23

43

-29

-68

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

5

-28

-64

73

-48

-104

-40.00%

-59.00%

 

 

W N Central

27

-16

-55

188

24

-26

15.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

66

-7

-36

555

32

-120

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

56

-12

-51

345

4

-117

1.00%

-25.00%

 

 

W S Central

112

12

-29

719

68

-180

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

27

-25

-41

174

-81

-121

-32.00%

-41.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-15

-17

32

-70

-46

-69.00%

-59.00%

 

 

United States

36

-12

-36

253

-13

-95

-5.00%

-27.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

11

-5

3

5,748

-850

-203

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-1

6

5,091

-815

-125

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

31

19

28

5,851

-638

-63

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

14

3

13

6,535

-204

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

1

2,435

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

2

3

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

26

6

14

5,504

318

738

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-3

-3

3,621

416

602

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

12

3

7

4,196

-320

133

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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