Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-22-2023

Jun 22, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.606

$2.597

0.35%

$0.009

18,918

 

 

WTI

$70.64

$72.53

-2.61%

-$1.89

107,827

 

 

Brent

$75.21

$77.12

-2.48%

-$1.91

10,398

 

 

ULSD

$2.507

$2.564

-2.24%

-$0.057

7,485

 

 

RBOB

$2.548

$2.624

-2.91%

-$0.076

3,772

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.59

$4.59

0.00%

$0.00

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.42

$33.47

-3.14%

-$1.05

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.88

$41.38

-1.21%

-$0.50

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/16/23

687

-8

-53

06/17/22

 

 

Canada

06/16/23

159

23

3

06/17/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/13/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

112,313

111,944

112,065

-121

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,782

92,142

92,189

-47

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

445,336

417,190

433,080

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

266,008

200,982

195,005

5,977

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

147,598

136,428

139,549

-3,121

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,340

37,001

36,913

88

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,633

150,784

151,353

-569

 

 

RBOB

340,409

320,121

325,069

-4,948

 

 

HSC Basis

570,797

565,221

559,003

6,218

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/15/18

 

 

 

6/9/23

6/2/23

Net Change

% Change

6/10/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

574

552

22

3.99%

407

41.03%

466

23.07%

 

 

Midwest

632

604

28

4.64%

482

31.12%

529

19.52%

 

 

Mountain

148

137

11

8.03%

122

21.31%

138

7.56%

 

 

Pacific

176

164

12

7.32%

221

-20.36%

245

-28.28%

 

 

South

1,105

1,093

12

1.10%

863

28.04%

946

16.81%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

251

29.08%

286

13.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

781

774

7

0.90%

612

27.61%

660

18.30%

 

 

Total

2,634

2,550

84

3.29%

2,095

25.73%

2,324

13.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$46.45

$46.93

-1.02%

-$0.48

$60.81

-23.61%

$101.08

-54.05%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$116.60

$83.20

40.15%

$33.40

$64.08

81.95%

$74.94

55.59%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$92.00

$86.41

6.46%

$5.59

$86.32

6.58%

$118.29

-22.23%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$50.90

$51.19

-0.57%

-$0.29

$65.26

-22.01%

$104.14

-51.12%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$61.93

$71.02

-12.80%

-$9.09

$82.06

-24.53%

$82.76

-25.16%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$170.22

$152.23

11.82%

$18.00

$138.78

22.66%

$135.20

25.91%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$48.80

$55.22

-11.61%

-$6.41

$65.56

-25.56%

$80.77

-39.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.597

$2.492

4.21%

$0.10

$2.55

1.80%

$4.88

-46.73%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.094

-$0.093

1.30%

$0.00

-$0.13

-27.46%

-$0.22

-57.82%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.193

-$0.185

-4.14%

-$0.01

-$0.16

23.86%

-$0.28

-31.38%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.491

-$0.566

-13.24%

$0.07

-$1.03

-52.39%

-$2.30

-78.69%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.539

$1.673

-7.97%

-$0.13

$1.86

-17.06%

-$0.32

-577.57%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.113

-$1.138

-2.17%

$0.02

-$1.08

2.97%

-$1.24

-10.27%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.594

$1.530

4.14%

$0.06

$1.69

-5.57%

$0.56

183.53%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.580

$0.572

1.35%

$0.01

$0.63

-8.28%

$1.02

-43.30%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.566

$0.565

0.23%

$0.00

$0.63

-10.47%

$1.05

-45.98%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.215

$0.213

1.18%

$0.00

$0.20

7.97%

$0.36

-40.14%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.349

$1.350

-0.08%

$0.00

$1.40

-3.78%

$1.93

-29.95%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.617

$0.605

2.07%

$0.01

$0.72

-13.70%

$1.22

-49.36%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.574

$0.563

2.02%

$0.01

$0.62

-8.01%

$1.02

-43.76%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.380

$1.367

0.96%

$0.01

$1.43

-3.19%

$1.87

-26.39%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$72.53

$71.19

1.85%

$1.34

$71.97

0.78%

$91.10

-20.38%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$77.12

$75.90

1.58%

$1.22

$75.87

1.65%

$95.83

-19.52%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.10

-$11.77

-6.05%

$0.67

-$13.25

-16.26%

-$15.97

-30.53%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$74.74

$73.07

2.24%

$1.67

$73.23

2.06%

$93.30

-19.89%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$71.62

$71.57

0.06%

$0.04

$69.58

2.93%

$89.17

-19.68%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$71.72

$70.90

1.15%

$0.83

$70.53

1.70%

$90.15

-20.44%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$76.39

$76.65

-0.34%

-$0.26

$74.61

2.38%

$93.01

-17.87%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.57

$2.48

3.59%

$0.09

$2.36

8.69%

$3.26

-21.39%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.50

$2.57

-2.53%

-$0.06

$2.53

-1.22%

$2.82

-11.25%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.40

$2.47

-2.63%

-$0.07

$2.43

-1.27%

$2.72

-11.66%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.31

$2.29

0.92%

$0.02

$2.18

6.00%

$3.22

-28.26%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.61

$2.50

4.20%

$0.11

$2.35

10.75%

$2.46

5.85%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$683.91

$661.50

3.39%

$22.41

$636.99

7.37%

$906.60

-24.56%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$91.50

$92.51

-1.10%

-$1.01

$90.04

1.62%

$124.29

-26.38%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

72.57%

79.99%

-9.28%

-7.42%

75.66%

-4.08%

47.05%

54.24%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

73.57%

81.45%

-9.67%

-7.88%

115.15%

-36.11%

56.84%

29.43%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

102.84%

105.45%

-2.48%

-2.61%

112.19%

-8.33%

130.54%

-21.22%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

75.33%

83.07%

-9.32%

-7.74%

76.75%

-1.85%

50.19%

50.09%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

79.90%

76.04%

5.08%

3.86%

77.75%

2.77%

56.77%

40.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

160.17%

153.00%

4.69%

7.17%

157.98%

1.39%

78.63%

103.70%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

238.12%

233.93%

1.79%

4.19%

199.18%

19.55%

98.54%

141.65%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/23

6/20/23

% Change

Change

5/22/23

% Change

6/21/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 37.99

EUR 37.59

1.06%

EUR 0.40

EUR 30.43

24.82%

EUR 81.76

-53.53%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 94.71

GBP 93.18

1.64%

GBP 1.53

GBP 71.65

32.19%

GBP 196.24

-51.74%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 112.21

EUR 117.56

-4.55%

-EUR 5.35

EUR 94.00

19.38%

EUR 199.16

-43.66%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 96.85

GBP 104.00

-6.88%

-GBP 7.15

GBP 83.68

15.73%

GBP 182.46

-46.92%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 112.23

EUR 118.64

-5.40%

-EUR 6.41

EUR 90.37

24.18%

EUR 184.37

-39.13%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 129.16

EUR 138.00

-6.40%

-EUR 8.84

EUR 112.95

14.35%

EUR 213.69

-39.56%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$9.71

$11.26

-13.76%

-$1.55

$10.02

-3.14%

$30.59

-68.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

10

-2

-7

27

0

-40

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

13

-12

-23

43

-29

-68

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

5

-28

-64

73

-48

-104

-40.00%

-59.00%

 

 

W N Central

27

-16

-55

188

24

-26

15.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

66

-7

-36

555

32

-120

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

56

-12

-51

345

4

-117

1.00%

-25.00%

 

 

W S Central

112

12

-29

719

68

-180

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

27

-25

-41

174

-81

-121

-32.00%

-41.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-15

-17

32

-70

-46

-69.00%

-59.00%

 

 

United States

36

-12

-36

253

-13

-95

-5.00%

-27.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

11

-5

3

5,748

-850

-203

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-1

6

5,091

-815

-125

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

31

19

28

5,851

-638

-63

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

14

3

13

6,535

-204

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

1

2,435

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

2

3

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

26

6

14

5,504

318

738

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-3

-3

3,621

416

602

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

12

3

7

4,196

-320

133

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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