Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-23-2023

Jun 23, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:26 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.526

$2.608

-3.14%

-$0.082

18,332

 

 

WTI

$67.67

$69.51

-2.65%

-$1.84

120,255

 

 

Brent

$72.37

$74.14

-2.39%

-$1.77

7,055

 

 

ULSD

$2.387

$2.466

-3.17%

-$0.078

5,798

 

 

RBOB

$2.483

$2.550

-2.65%

-$0.068

2,950

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.71

$4.63

1.73%

$0.08

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.57

$33.48

-2.73%

-$0.92

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.71

$40.87

2.06%

$0.84

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/16/23

687

-8

-53

06/17/22

 

 

Canada

06/16/23

159

23

3

06/17/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/13/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

112,313

111,944

112,065

-121

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,782

92,142

92,189

-47

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

445,336

417,190

433,080

-15,890

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

266,008

200,982

195,005

5,977

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

147,598

136,428

139,549

-3,121

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,340

37,001

36,913

88

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,633

150,784

151,353

-569

 

 

RBOB

340,409

320,121

325,069

-4,948

 

 

HSC Basis

570,797

565,221

559,003

6,218

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/22/18

 

 

 

6/16/23

6/9/23

Net Change

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

599

574

25

4.36%

430

39.30%

493

21.45%

 

 

Midwest

658

632

26

4.11%

506

30.04%

556

18.35%

 

 

Mountain

157

148

9

6.08%

128

22.66%

144

8.73%

 

 

Pacific

191

176

15

8.52%

231

-17.32%

253

-24.51%

 

 

South

1,125

1,105

20

1.81%

875

28.57%

961

17.04%

 

 

    Salt

330

324

6

1.85%

248

33.06%

286

15.38%

 

 

    Non_Salt

794

781

13

1.66%

628

26.43%

676

17.53%

 

 

Total

2,729

2,634

95

3.61%

2,169

25.82%

2,408

13.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$47.12

$46.45

1.43%

$0.66

$55.52

-15.14%

$99.33

-52.57%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$137.61

$116.60

18.02%

$21.02

$61.02

125.52%

$73.36

87.59%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$92.98

$92.00

1.06%

$0.98

$89.62

3.74%

$112.57

-17.41%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$52.48

$50.90

3.11%

$1.58

$59.99

-12.51%

$102.51

-48.80%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$59.67

$61.93

-3.66%

-$2.26

$79.54

-24.98%

$87.24

-31.60%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$158.90

$170.22

-6.65%

-$11.32

$134.39

18.23%

$132.98

19.49%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$47.69

$48.80

-2.29%

-$1.12

$60.74

-21.49%

$78.74

-39.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.608

$2.597

0.42%

$0.01

$2.49

4.78%

$4.91

-46.83%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.079

-$0.094

-16.10%

$0.02

-$0.10

-21.30%

-$0.21

-63.22%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.177

-$0.193

9.10%

$0.02

-$0.15

21.65%

-$0.25

-30.26%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.436

-$0.491

-11.26%

$0.06

-$0.91

-52.37%

-$2.21

-80.31%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.252

$1.539

-18.66%

-$0.29

$1.89

-33.80%

-$0.29

-525.27%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.147

-$1.113

3.07%

-$0.03

-$1.06

8.24%

-$1.21

-5.57%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.523

$1.594

-4.41%

-$0.07

$1.65

-7.60%

$0.56

170.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.565

$0.580

-2.64%

-$0.02

$0.64

-11.41%

$1.02

-44.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.555

$0.566

-2.01%

-$0.01

$0.64

-13.46%

$0.99

-44.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.218

$0.215

1.15%

$0.00

$0.20

9.87%

$0.35

-38.36%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.295

$1.349

-4.00%

-$0.05

$1.43

-9.15%

$1.85

-30.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.592

$0.617

-4.00%

-$0.02

$0.72

-18.14%

$1.19

-50.06%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.540

$0.574

-6.07%

-$0.03

$0.64

-15.38%

$1.03

-47.52%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.384

$1.380

0.31%

$0.00

$1.46

-5.33%

$1.89

-26.87%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$69.51

$72.53

-4.34%

-$3.02

$72.85

-4.58%

$88.97

-21.87%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$74.14

$77.12

-4.02%

-$2.98

$76.74

-3.39%

$93.78

-20.94%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.18

-$11.10

0.77%

-$0.09

-$13.10

-14.65%

-$16.50

-32.23%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$71.81

$74.74

-4.08%

-$2.93

$74.58

-3.71%

$88.59

-18.94%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$70.46

$71.62

-1.64%

-$1.16

$70.93

-0.66%

$82.94

-15.05%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$69.80

$71.72

-2.75%

-$1.92

$71.44

-2.29%

$83.92

-16.82%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$72.14

$76.39

-5.90%

-$4.25

$75.40

-4.32%

$88.08

-18.10%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.47

$2.57

-3.86%

-$0.10

$2.38

3.61%

$3.24

-23.82%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.54

$2.50

1.52%

$0.04

$2.56

-0.78%

$2.78

-8.70%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.44

$2.40

1.58%

$0.04

$2.46

-0.81%

$2.68

-9.02%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.22

$2.31

-3.85%

-$0.09

$2.18

2.02%

$3.19

-30.19%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.58

$2.61

-1.04%

-$0.03

$2.36

9.37%

$2.39

7.77%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$661.45

$683.91

-3.28%

-$22.47

$636.53

3.91%

$914.28

-27.65%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$93.27

$91.50

1.94%

$1.78

$89.88

3.78%

$118.23

-21.11%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

74.81%

72.57%

3.09%

2.24%

73.41%

1.91%

40.01%

86.98%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

76.34%

73.57%

3.77%

2.77%

112.05%

-31.87%

50.06%

52.50%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

101.36%

102.84%

-1.44%

-1.48%

102.67%

-1.28%

111.64%

-9.21%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

78.21%

75.33%

3.82%

2.88%

77.81%

0.51%

43.49%

79.83%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

77.58%

79.90%

-2.90%

-2.32%

76.85%

0.95%

58.68%

32.21%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

172.02%

160.17%

7.40%

11.85%

182.43%

-5.71%

78.70%

118.58%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

254.06%

238.12%

6.69%

15.94%

199.74%

27.20%

98.63%

157.59%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/22/23

6/21/23

% Change

Change

5/23/23

% Change

6/22/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 34.70

EUR 37.99

-8.66%

-EUR 3.29

EUR 31.58

9.90%

EUR 83.46

-58.42%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 86.10

GBP 94.71

-9.09%

-GBP 8.61

GBP 72.54

18.69%

GBP 191.66

-55.08%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 106.25

EUR 112.21

-5.31%

-EUR 5.96

EUR 93.04

14.20%

EUR 203.49

-47.78%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 92.04

GBP 96.85

-4.97%

-GBP 4.81

GBP 81.92

12.35%

GBP 172.07

-46.51%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 100.80

EUR 112.23

-10.18%

-EUR 11.43

EUR 89.64

12.45%

EUR 187.51

-46.24%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 118.04

EUR 129.16

-8.61%

-EUR 11.12

EUR 112.10

5.30%

EUR 206.40

-42.81%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$10.47

$9.71

7.85%

$0.76

$9.82

6.66%

$30.77

-65.97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

10

-2

-7

27

0

-40

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

13

-12

-23

43

-29

-68

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

5

-28

-64

73

-48

-104

-40.00%

-59.00%

 

 

W N Central

27

-16

-55

188

24

-26

15.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

66

-7

-36

555

32

-120

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

56

-12

-51

345

4

-117

1.00%

-25.00%

 

 

W S Central

112

12

-29

719

68

-180

10.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Mountain

27

-25

-41

174

-81

-121

-32.00%

-41.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-15

-17

32

-70

-46

-69.00%

-59.00%

 

 

United States

36

-12

-36

253

-13

-95

-5.00%

-27.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/17/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

11

-5

3

5,748

-850

-203

-13.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

8

-1

6

5,091

-815

-125

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

31

19

28

5,851

-638

-63

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

14

3

13

6,535

-204

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

1

2,435

-417

21

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

2

3

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

26

6

14

5,504

318

738

6.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-3

-3

3,621

416

602

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

12

3

7

4,196

-320

133

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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