Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-24-2024

Jun 24, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.676

$2.705

-1.07%

-$0.029

9,897

 

 

WTI

$80.61

$80.73

-0.15%

-$0.12

69,418

 

 

Brent

$85.23

$85.24

-0.01%

-$0.01

7,676

 

 

ULSD

$2.489

$2.491

-0.09%

-$0.002

2,240

 

 

RBOB

$2.505

$2.514

-0.36%

-$0.009

1,418

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.50

$4.51

-0.22%

-$0.01

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.67

$24.32

-2.64%

-$0.64

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$68.61

$77.42

-11.38%

-$8.81

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/21/24

588

-2

-94

06/24/23

 

 

Canada

06/21/24

166

6

-3

06/24/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/14/19

 

 

 

6/14/24

6/7/24

Net Change

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

631

603

28

4.64%

599

5.34%

522

20.97%

 

 

Midwest

736

712

24

3.37%

658

11.85%

596

23.57%

 

 

Mountain

230

224

6

2.68%

157

46.50%

147

56.04%

 

 

Pacific

279

276

3

1.09%

191

46.07%

239

16.83%

 

 

South

1,168

1,159

9

0.78%

1,125

3.82%

1,016

15.01%

 

 

    Salt

337

336

1

0.30%

330

2.12%

302

11.66%

 

 

    Non_Salt

831

823

8

0.97%

794

4.66%

714

16.35%

 

 

Total

3,045

2,974

71

2.39%

2,729

11.58%

2,519

20.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$74.38

$83.21

-10.60%

-$8.82

$74.54

-0.21%

$60.32

23.31%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$105.37

$99.26

6.16%

$6.11

$130.60

-19.32%

$86.14

22.33%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$55.00

$48.98

12.28%

$6.02

$56.03

-1.84%

$106.50

-48.36%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$72.99

$80.17

-8.95%

-$7.18

$73.88

-1.20%

$68.02

7.31%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$71.99

$78.34

-8.10%

-$6.35

$64.25

12.05%

$68.08

5.75%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$76.30

$69.14

10.34%

$7.15

$84.11

-9.29%

$159.76

-52.24%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$68.83

$75.09

-8.34%

-$6.26

$64.82

6.18%

$65.31

5.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.705

$2.741

-1.31%

-$0.04

$3.05

-11.37%

$3.37

-19.64%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.245

-$0.278

-12.10%

$0.03

-$0.28

-13.98%

-$0.25

-1.41%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.379

-$0.446

17.83%

$0.07

-$0.49

-23.34%

-$0.19

101.17%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.443

-$1.478

-2.36%

$0.03

-$1.60

-9.67%

-$0.66

117.65%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.220

$0.317

-30.66%

-$0.10

$0.10

112.56%

$0.14

52.04%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.148

-$2.274

-5.55%

$0.13

-$1.97

9.24%

-$1.38

55.77%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.422

-$0.498

-15.26%

$0.08

-$0.04

1033.33%

$1.63

-125.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.792

$0.805

-1.57%

-$0.01

$0.72

10.63%

$0.61

29.71%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.794

$0.805

-1.41%

-$0.01

$0.72

10.63%

$0.62

27.51%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.182

$0.196

-7.09%

-$0.01

$0.23

-19.03%

$0.24

-22.45%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.560

$1.550

0.64%

$0.01

$1.51

3.59%

$1.31

19.17%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.870

$0.851

2.19%

$0.02

$0.79

10.39%

$0.66

31.30%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.345

$6.355

-0.15%

-$0.01

$6.05

4.89%

$4.66

36.06%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.870

$5.865

0.09%

$0.01

$5.50

6.80%

$4.36

34.77%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$80.73

$81.29

-0.69%

-$0.56

$77.15

4.64%

$67.33

19.90%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.24

$85.71

-0.55%

-$0.47

$81.64

4.41%

$71.87

18.60%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.05

-$13.00

0.38%

-$0.05

-$10.85

20.28%

-$13.08

-0.24%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$82.84

$82.41

0.52%

$0.43

$80.18

3.31%

$69.23

19.66%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$80.84

$80.36

0.59%

$0.48

$78.14

3.46%

$65.49

23.44%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$81.28

$80.71

0.70%

$0.57

$78.31

3.78%

$66.93

21.43%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.24

$83.71

-0.56%

-$0.47

$79.64

4.52%

$69.87

19.14%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.49

$2.53

-1.42%

-$0.04

$2.44

2.13%

$2.32

7.46%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.51

$2.50

0.24%

$0.01

$2.48

1.29%

$2.18

15.10%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.41

$2.40

0.25%

$0.01

$2.38

1.35%

$2.08

15.82%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.50

$2.48

0.48%

$0.01

$2.40

4.17%

$2.04

22.40%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$1.95

$1.93

0.78%

$0.02

$1.80

8.30%

$1.88

3.51%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$740.00

$739.50

0.07%

$0.50

$707.84

4.54%

$630.99

17.27%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$99.50

$100.63

-1.12%

-$1.13

$97.25

2.31%

$89.96

10.60%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

60.35%

67.78%

-10.96%

-7.43%

55.47%

8.80%

46.57%

29.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

71.32%

79.87%

-10.70%

-8.55%

59.99%

18.89%

47.13%

51.33%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

86.41%

96.39%

-10.35%

-9.98%

89.15%

-3.07%

46.78%

84.72%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

67.44%

75.17%

-10.28%

-7.73%

63.10%

6.88%

46.91%

43.76%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

108.28%

110.26%

-1.80%

-1.98%

84.30%

28.45%

45.38%

138.61%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

108.56%

107.35%

1.13%

1.21%

113.76%

-4.57%

85.57%

26.87%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

343.09%

340.61%

0.73%

2.48%

341.10%

0.58%

174.64%

96.46%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.35

EUR 34.82

-1.37%

-EUR 0.48

EUR 35.50

-3.24%

EUR 50.80

-32.39%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 80.82

GBP 82.09

-1.55%

-GBP 1.27

GBP 85.04

-4.97%

GBP 123.60

-34.62%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 74.45

EUR 76.34

-2.48%

-EUR 1.89

EUR 85.28

-12.70%

EUR 129.35

-42.44%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 73.90

GBP 77.20

-4.27%

-GBP 3.30

GBP 76.51

-3.41%

GBP 109.54

-32.53%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 49.36

EUR 39.58

24.71%

EUR 9.78

EUR 60.48

-18.38%

EUR 126.14

-60.87%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 104.15

EUR 105.73

-1.49%

-EUR 1.57

EUR 108.60

-4.09%

EUR 134.88

-22.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.13

$12.16

-0.26%

-$0.03

$12.42

-2.35%

$15.98

-24.09%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/21/24

6/20/24

% Change

Change

5/22/24

% Change

6/22/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.35

$34.82

-1.37%

-$0.48

$35.50

-3.24%

$50.80

-32.39%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$80.82

$82.09

-1.55%

-$1.27

$85.04

-4.97%

$123.60

-34.62%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$74.45

$76.34

-2.48%

-$1.89

$85.28

-12.70%

$129.35

-42.44%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$73.90

$77.20

-4.27%

-$3.30

$76.51

-3.41%

$109.54

-32.53%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$49.36

$39.58

24.71%

$9.78

$60.48

-18.38%

$126.14

-60.87%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$104.15

$105.73

-1.49%

-$1.57

$108.60

-4.09%

$134.88

-22.78%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.13

$12.16

-0.26%

-$0.03

$12.42

-2.35%

$15.98

-24.09%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

49

32

46

88

47

58

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

33

52

138

43

83

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

87

49

59

182

34

76

23.00%

72.00%

 

 

W N Central

69

20

14

221

21

-21

11.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

97

18

33

663

82

55

14.00%

9.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

27

39

511

116

116

29.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

9

-15

896

167

65

23.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

56

-2

15

283

-14

71

-5.00%

33.00%

 

 

Pacific

19

-6

11

65

-55

30

-46.00%

86.00%

 

 

United States

74

20

30

352

46

59

15.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

6

-5

-14

5,772

-867

-6

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-4

-6

5,173

-768

17

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-7

-10

5,393

-1,134

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-4

1

5,660

-1,118

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

-1

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

0

-4

4,913

-307

-595

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

9

-6

-15

3,118

-112

-514

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

3

-3

-6

3,957

-586

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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