Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-25-2024

Jun 25, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.783

$2.811

-1.00%

-$0.028

11,090

 

 

WTI

$81.49

$81.63

-0.17%

-$0.14

73,751

 

 

Brent

$85.88

$86.01

-0.15%

-$0.13

8,293

 

 

ULSD

$2.538

$2.521

0.64%

$0.016

2,460

 

 

RBOB

$2.515

$2.511

0.14%

$0.004

2,482

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.36

$4.38

-0.46%

-$0.02

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.18

$23.77

1.72%

$0.41

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$61.72

$68.37

-9.72%

-$6.65

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/21/24

588

-2

-94

06/24/23

 

 

Canada

06/21/24

166

6

-3

06/24/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/14/19

 

 

 

6/14/24

6/7/24

Net Change

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

631

603

28

4.64%

599

5.34%

522

20.97%

 

 

Midwest

736

712

24

3.37%

658

11.85%

596

23.57%

 

 

Mountain

230

224

6

2.68%

157

46.50%

147

56.04%

 

 

Pacific

279

276

3

1.09%

191

46.07%

239

16.83%

 

 

South

1,168

1,159

9

0.78%

1,125

3.82%

1,016

15.01%

 

 

    Salt

337

336

1

0.30%

330

2.12%

302

11.66%

 

 

    Non_Salt

831

823

8

0.97%

794

4.66%

714

16.35%

 

 

Total

3,045

2,974

71

2.39%

2,729

11.58%

2,519

20.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$67.64

$74.38

-9.07%

-$6.75

$72.69

-6.95%

$61.39

10.18%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$103.72

$105.37

-1.57%

-$1.65

$133.71

-22.43%

$87.78

18.15%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$53.00

$55.00

-3.64%

-$2.00

$56.13

-5.57%

$106.87

-50.41%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$65.07

$72.99

-10.85%

-$7.92

$72.09

-9.73%

$69.50

-6.37%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$65.07

$71.99

-9.62%

-$6.93

$64.79

0.43%

$65.83

-1.15%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$77.93

$76.30

2.14%

$1.63

$85.83

-9.21%

$156.97

-50.36%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$61.84

$68.83

-10.16%

-$6.99

$61.86

-0.04%

$63.07

-1.95%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.811

$2.705

3.92%

$0.11

$2.92

-3.83%

$3.40

-17.27%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.288

-$0.245

17.69%

-$0.04

-$0.27

5.38%

-$0.25

16.45%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.373

-$0.379

1.50%

$0.01

-$0.46

-18.77%

-$0.20

90.21%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.731

-$1.443

-20.00%

-$0.29

-$1.52

13.96%

-$0.64

168.84%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.077

$0.220

-64.95%

-$0.14

$0.18

-57.45%

$0.14

-44.93%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.151

-$2.148

0.14%

$0.00

-$1.88

14.36%

-$1.38

56.10%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.341

-$0.422

-19.19%

$0.08

-$0.09

283.67%

$1.64

-120.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.798

$0.792

0.64%

$0.01

$0.73

10.00%

$0.61

31.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.803

$0.794

1.11%

$0.01

$0.73

10.50%

$0.61

32.48%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.181

$0.182

-0.64%

$0.00

$0.23

-20.41%

$0.24

-23.75%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.550

$1.560

-0.64%

-$0.01

$1.51

2.46%

$1.27

21.98%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.884

$0.870

1.56%

$0.01

$0.82

7.13%

$0.68

30.42%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.355

$6.345

0.15%

$0.01

$6.16

3.25%

$4.56

39.49%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.840

$5.870

-0.51%

-$0.03

$5.51

5.99%

$4.35

34.35%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$81.63

$80.73

1.10%

$0.90

$76.46

6.76%

$67.14

21.58%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$86.01

$85.24

0.90%

$0.77

$81.11

6.04%

$71.65

20.04%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.05

-$13.05

-0.01%

$0.00

-$10.80

20.82%

-$12.57

3.79%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$82.26

$82.84

-0.70%

-$0.58

$79.07

4.04%

$69.19

18.89%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$80.26

$80.84

-0.72%

-$0.58

$76.92

4.35%

$64.66

24.13%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$80.72

$81.28

-0.69%

-$0.56

$77.18

4.59%

$64.43

25.29%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$84.01

$83.24

0.92%

$0.77

$79.11

6.19%

$69.65

20.62%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.52

$2.49

1.24%

$0.03

$2.42

4.04%

$2.30

9.93%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.50

$2.51

-0.28%

-$0.01

$2.45

1.87%

$2.12

18.19%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.40

$2.41

-0.29%

-$0.01

$2.36

1.95%

$2.02

19.10%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.47

$2.50

-0.88%

-$0.02

$2.37

4.47%

$2.04

21.32%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$2.01

$1.95

3.29%

$0.06

$1.79

12.23%

$1.81

11.12%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$738.22

$740.00

-0.24%

-$1.78

$704.49

4.79%

$611.84

20.66%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$98.98

$99.50

-0.52%

-$0.52

$96.17

2.92%

$87.61

12.98%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

53.26%

60.35%

-11.75%

-7.09%

75.70%

-29.64%

43.21%

23.26%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

64.25%

71.32%

-9.91%

-7.07%

78.77%

-18.43%

43.01%

49.38%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

80.75%

86.41%

-6.55%

-5.66%

106.41%

-24.11%

46.00%

75.54%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

60.23%

67.44%

-10.69%

-7.21%

82.43%

-26.93%

43.58%

38.21%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

97.55%

108.28%

-9.91%

-10.73%

80.78%

20.76%

45.95%

112.30%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

116.41%

108.56%

7.23%

7.85%

81.50%

42.83%

85.53%

36.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

350.60%

343.09%

2.19%

7.51%

374.19%

-6.30%

175.01%

100.33%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.87

EUR 34.35

1.52%

EUR 0.52

EUR 36.04

-3.26%

EUR 49.38

-29.39%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 81.68

GBP 80.82

1.07%

GBP 0.87

GBP 87.12

-6.24%

GBP 120.22

-32.06%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 74.50

EUR 74.45

0.07%

EUR 0.05

EUR 85.24

-12.60%

EUR 128.11

-41.85%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 77.11

GBP 73.90

4.34%

GBP 3.21

GBP 77.61

-0.65%

GBP 109.49

-29.57%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 45.13

EUR 49.36

-8.57%

-EUR 4.23

EUR 60.60

-25.53%

EUR 126.47

-64.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 102.58

EUR 104.15

-1.51%

-EUR 1.57

EUR 109.81

-6.58%

EUR 136.05

-24.60%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.52

$12.13

3.22%

$0.39

$12.50

0.16%

$15.76

-20.57%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/24/24

6/21/24

% Change

Change

5/23/24

% Change

6/23/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.87

$34.35

1.52%

$0.52

$36.04

-3.26%

$49.38

-29.39%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$81.68

$80.82

1.07%

$0.87

$87.12

-6.24%

$120.22

-32.06%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$74.50

$74.45

0.07%

$0.05

$85.24

-12.60%

$128.11

-41.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$77.11

$73.90

4.34%

$3.21

$77.61

-0.65%

$109.49

-29.57%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$45.13

$49.36

-8.57%

-$4.23

$60.60

-25.53%

$126.47

-64.32%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$102.58

$104.15

-1.51%

-$1.57

$109.81

-6.58%

$136.05

-24.60%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.52

$12.13

3.22%

$0.39

$12.50

0.16%

$15.76

-20.57%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

49

32

46

88

47

58

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

33

52

138

43

83

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

87

49

59

182

34

76

23.00%

72.00%

 

 

W N Central

69

20

14

221

21

-21

11.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

97

18

33

663

82

55

14.00%

9.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

27

39

511

116

116

29.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

9

-15

896

167

65

23.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

56

-2

15

283

-14

71

-5.00%

33.00%

 

 

Pacific

19

-6

11

65

-55

30

-46.00%

86.00%

 

 

United States

74

20

30

352

46

59

15.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

6

-5

-14

5,772

-867

-6

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-4

-6

5,173

-768

17

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-7

-10

5,393

-1,134

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-4

1

5,660

-1,118

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

-1

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

0

-4

4,913

-307

-595

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

9

-6

-15

3,118

-112

-514

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

3

-3

-6

3,957

-586

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

To opt out of this email please follow this link.

Campbell Faulkner | OTC Global Holdings

Quality Data – Reliable Service – Affordable Price

5151 San Felipe Suite 2200
Houston, TX 77056
faulkner.c@otcgh.com
eoxlive.com/market-data

 

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.