Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-26-2023

Jun 26, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:00 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.797

$2.729

2.49%

$0.068

10,671

 

 

WTI

$69.57

$69.16

0.59%

$0.41

123,362

 

 

Brent

$74.40

$73.85

0.74%

$0.55

5,769

 

 

ULSD

$2.443

$2.407

1.47%

$0.036

3,967

 

 

RBOB

$2.533

$2.517

0.62%

$0.016

2,918

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.82

$4.69

2.77%

$0.13

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.89

$32.29

1.86%

$0.60

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$44.62

$41.28

8.10%

$3.34

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/23/23

682

-5

-71

06/24/22

 

 

Canada

06/23/23

169

10

15

06/24/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/20/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

113,527

113,003

112,920

83

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

93,473

92,829

92,867

-38

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

447,282

419,217

435,040

-15,823

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

267,077

201,628

195,684

5,944

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

148,800

138,158

140,165

-2,007

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,482

38,137

38,037

100

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

167,816

166,828

167,332

-504

 

 

RBOB

338,754

317,730

324,035

-6,305

 

 

HSC Basis

574,208

568,463

562,446

6,017

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/22/18

 

 

 

6/16/23

6/9/23

Net Change

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

599

574

25

4.36%

430

39.30%

493

21.45%

 

 

Midwest

658

632

26

4.11%

506

30.04%

556

18.35%

 

 

Mountain

157

148

9

6.08%

128

22.66%

144

8.73%

 

 

Pacific

191

176

15

8.52%

231

-17.32%

253

-24.51%

 

 

South

1,125

1,105

20

1.81%

875

28.57%

961

17.04%

 

 

    Salt

330

324

6

1.85%

248

33.06%

286

15.38%

 

 

    Non_Salt

794

781

13

1.66%

628

26.43%

676

17.53%

 

 

Total

2,729

2,634

95

3.61%

2,169

25.82%

2,408

13.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$50.60

$47.12

7.41%

$3.49

$55.38

-8.62%

$96.42

-47.52%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$135.69

$137.61

-1.40%

-$1.93

$65.54

107.03%

$77.30

75.54%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$84.35

$92.98

-9.27%

-$8.62

$90.38

-6.66%

$117.53

-28.23%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$56.61

$52.48

7.87%

$4.13

$60.68

-6.70%

$99.70

-43.22%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$57.58

$59.67

-3.51%

-$2.09

$78.48

-26.63%

$77.47

-25.68%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$162.90

$158.90

2.52%

$4.01

$150.47

8.26%

$143.07

13.86%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$47.69

$47.69

0.01%

$0.01

$62.73

-23.97%

$72.45

-34.17%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.729

$2.608

4.64%

$0.12

$2.57

6.35%

$4.85

-43.73%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.080

-$0.079

1.27%

$0.00

-$0.13

-36.95%

-$0.19

-58.01%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.203

-$0.177

-12.76%

-$0.03

-$0.17

17.56%

-$0.23

-10.06%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.443

-$0.436

-1.68%

-$0.01

-$0.98

-54.79%

-$2.07

-78.60%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$0.851

$1.252

-32.03%

-$0.40

$1.86

-54.33%

-$0.40

-311.96%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.173

-$1.147

2.25%

-$0.03

-$1.22

-3.57%

-$1.20

-2.64%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.564

$1.523

2.65%

$0.04

$1.83

-14.76%

$0.58

171.05%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.573

$0.565

1.38%

$0.01

$0.65

-11.93%

$1.02

-43.64%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.563

$0.555

1.38%

$0.01

$0.64

-11.76%

$1.06

-47.17%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.223

$0.218

2.30%

$0.01

$0.20

8.55%

$0.35

-35.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.240

$1.295

-4.28%

-$0.06

$1.46

-14.79%

$1.91

-35.21%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.598

$0.592

1.01%

$0.01

$0.72

-17.30%

$1.20

-50.30%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.553

$0.540

2.48%

$0.01

$0.65

-14.64%

$1.01

-45.32%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.363

$1.384

-1.52%

-$0.02

$1.46

-6.73%

$1.74

-21.75%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$69.16

$69.51

-0.51%

-$0.35

$74.29

-6.91%

$85.59

-19.20%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$73.85

$74.14

-0.39%

-$0.29

$78.23

-5.60%

$90.60

-18.49%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$10.71

-$11.18

-4.37%

$0.47

-$12.74

-15.94%

-$16.91

-36.64%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$71.82

$71.81

0.02%

$0.01

$75.41

-4.76%

$89.61

-19.85%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$68.00

$70.46

-3.62%

-$2.46

$71.72

-5.19%

$85.17

-20.16%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$69.32

$69.80

-0.70%

-$0.48

$72.31

-4.14%

$83.48

-16.96%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$71.85

$72.14

-0.40%

-$0.29

$76.20

-5.71%

$89.24

-19.49%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.41

$2.47

-2.39%

-$0.06

$2.40

0.21%

$3.20

-24.83%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.51

$2.54

-1.22%

-$0.03

$2.62

-4.09%

$2.75

-8.76%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.41

$2.44

-1.27%

-$0.03

$2.52

-4.25%

$2.65

-9.09%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.19

$2.22

-1.48%

-$0.03

$2.20

-0.23%

$2.92

-24.99%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.57

$2.58

-0.54%

-$0.01

$2.39

7.45%

$2.28

12.35%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$652.30

$661.45

-1.38%

-$9.14

$649.02

0.51%

$874.16

-25.38%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$90.90

$93.27

-2.54%

-$2.37

$89.44

1.64%

$120.45

-24.53%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

67.61%

74.81%

-9.62%

-7.20%

62.90%

7.49%

53.22%

27.04%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

72.97%

76.34%

-4.41%

-3.37%

100.68%

-27.52%

63.48%

14.95%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

101.73%

101.36%

0.37%

0.37%

93.94%

8.29%

116.04%

-12.33%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

69.65%

78.21%

-10.94%

-8.56%

64.51%

7.97%

56.04%

24.29%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

78.74%

77.58%

1.50%

1.16%

75.58%

4.18%

59.01%

33.44%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

172.57%

172.02%

0.32%

0.55%

135.93%

26.96%

79.75%

116.39%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

257.38%

254.06%

1.31%

3.32%

201.99%

27.42%

99.98%

157.43%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/23/23

6/22/23

% Change

Change

5/24/23

% Change

6/23/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 34.15

EUR 34.70

-1.59%

-EUR 0.55

EUR 30.07

13.58%

EUR 86.64

-60.59%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 84.35

GBP 86.10

-2.03%

-GBP 1.75

GBP 70.21

20.14%

GBP 202.79

-58.40%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 100.03

EUR 106.25

-5.85%

-EUR 6.22

EUR 90.01

11.13%

EUR 208.83

-52.10%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 87.02

GBP 92.04

-5.46%

-GBP 5.02

GBP 80.85

7.62%

GBP 186.15

-53.26%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 98.79

EUR 100.80

-1.99%

-EUR 2.01

EUR 87.15

13.36%

EUR 195.10

-49.36%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 113.43

EUR 118.04

-3.91%

-EUR 4.61

EUR 109.25

3.83%

EUR 218.89

-48.18%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$10.72

$10.47

2.42%

$0.25

$9.64

11.21%

$26.05

-58.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

-12

4

34

-13

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-15

8

61

-44

-61

-42.00%

-50.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

3

-9

115

-45

-113

-28.00%

-49.00%

 

 

W N Central

64

12

-20

252

37

-46

17.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

65

-16

-14

619

15

-134

2.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

61

-15

-28

406

-11

-145

-3.00%

-26.00%

 

 

W S Central

131

23

-5

850

91

-185

12.00%

-18.00%

 

 

Mountain

43

-18

-10

218

-97

-131

-31.00%

-37.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-24

-31

35

-94

-77

-73.00%

-69.00%

 

 

United States

48

-8

-12

301

-21

-107

-7.00%

-26.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

17

8

-10

5,765

-842

-212

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

5

1

-4

5,096

-814

-129

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

4

-2

-3

5,855

-640

-66

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-6

1

6,536

-210

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

0

2,436

-417

22

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

14

0

5

5,519

319

743

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

Pacific

27

13

14

3,648

429

615

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

8

3

1

4,204

-317

134

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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