Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-26-2024

Jun 26, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.681

$2.756

-2.72%

-$0.075

244

 

 

WTI

$81.34

$80.83

0.63%

$0.51

58,052

 

 

Brent

$85.41

$85.01

0.47%

$0.40

3,657

 

 

ULSD

$2.531

$2.509

0.85%

$0.021

1,394

 

 

RBOB

$2.527

$2.515

0.50%

$0.013

1,304

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.06

$4.18

-2.87%

-$0.12

Aug-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.68

$24.48

0.83%

$0.20

Aug-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$61.61

$61.74

-0.21%

-$0.13

Jul-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/21/24

588

-2

-94

06/24/23

 

 

Canada

06/21/24

166

6

-3

06/24/23

 

 

International

May

953

-25

-12

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/11/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,968

95,404

95,399

5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,859

82,276

82,137

139

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

361,919

345,051

348,629

-3,578

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,285

130,433

123,411

7,022

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

123,761

113,901

115,041

-1,140

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,295

31,779

-484

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

147,478

146,363

147,007

-644

 

 

RBOB

399,961

376,364

379,360

-2,996

 

 

HSC Basis

805,785

797,663

799,375

-1,712

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/14/19

 

 

 

6/14/24

6/7/24

Net Change

% Change

6/16/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

631

603

28

4.64%

599

5.34%

522

20.97%

 

 

Midwest

736

712

24

3.37%

658

11.85%

596

23.57%

 

 

Mountain

230

224

6

2.68%

157

46.50%

147

56.04%

 

 

Pacific

279

276

3

1.09%

191

46.07%

239

16.83%

 

 

South

1,168

1,159

9

0.78%

1,125

3.82%

1,016

15.01%

 

 

    Salt

337

336

1

0.30%

330

2.12%

302

11.66%

 

 

    Non_Salt

831

823

8

0.97%

794

4.66%

714

16.35%

 

 

Total

3,045

2,974

71

2.39%

2,729

11.58%

2,519

20.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-24

$67.39

$67.64

-0.37%

-$0.25

$69.66

-3.26%

$62.03

8.64%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-24

$103.69

$103.72

-0.03%

-$0.03

$125.74

-17.54%

$86.01

20.55%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-24

$57.00

$53.00

7.55%

$4.00

$54.31

4.95%

$108.84

-47.63%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-24

$64.49

$65.07

-0.90%

-$0.59

$69.16

-6.75%

$70.04

-7.93%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-24

$66.21

$65.07

1.75%

$1.14

$62.17

6.49%

$71.26

-7.10%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-24

$79.38

$77.93

1.87%

$1.46

$89.90

-11.70%

$144.88

-45.21%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-24

$63.04

$61.84

1.93%

$1.20

$60.43

4.31%

$68.42

-7.87%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.756

$2.811

-1.96%

-$0.06

$2.77

-0.61%

$3.39

-18.61%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.282

-$0.288

-1.94%

$0.01

-$0.27

4.40%

-$0.22

27.37%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.424

-$0.373

-11.99%

-$0.05

-$0.47

-9.79%

-$0.19

126.75%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$2.209

-$1.731

-27.57%

-$0.48

-$1.50

47.54%

-$0.63

249.02%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.069

$0.077

-10.64%

-$0.01

$0.21

-66.86%

$0.14

-51.72%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$2.133

-$2.151

-0.83%

$0.02

-$1.86

14.82%

-$1.33

60.09%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.227

-$0.341

-33.49%

$0.11

-$0.12

83.19%

$1.62

-113.99%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-24

$0.801

$0.798

0.47%

$0.00

$0.74

8.27%

$0.60

33.15%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-24

$0.801

$0.803

-0.16%

$0.00

$0.75

7.54%

$0.61

32.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-24

$0.177

$0.181

-2.04%

$0.00

$0.21

-14.16%

$0.25

-28.06%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-24

$1.550

$1.550

0.00%

$0.00

$1.52

1.73%

$1.29

19.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-24

$0.885

$0.884

0.20%

$0.00

$0.83

6.07%

$0.67

32.71%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jul-24

$6.320

$6.355

-0.55%

-$0.03

$6.12

3.27%

$4.57

38.30%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jul-24

$5.870

$5.840

0.51%

$0.03

$5.55

5.77%

$4.21

39.43%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-24

$80.83

$81.63

-0.99%

-$0.80

$77.23

4.66%

$67.45

19.84%

 

 

Brent

Aug-24

$85.01

$86.01

-1.18%

-$1.00

$81.84

3.87%

$72.01

18.05%

 

 

WCS

Aug-24

-$13.20

-$13.05

1.14%

-$0.15

-$10.80

22.21%

-$12.99

1.57%

 

 

LLS

Aug-24

$83.22

$82.26

1.15%

$0.95

$78.37

6.19%

$69.86

19.12%

 

 

Mars

Aug-24

$81.12

$80.26

1.05%

$0.85

$76.37

6.22%

$65.28

24.26%

 

 

Sour

Aug-24

$81.62

$80.72

1.10%

$0.90

$76.49

6.70%

$65.87

23.92%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-24

$83.01

$84.01

-1.20%

-$1.00

$79.84

3.97%

$70.01

18.57%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-24

$2.51

$2.52

-0.67%

-$0.02

$2.44

2.58%

$2.31

8.44%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.49

$2.50

-0.32%

-$0.01

$2.48

0.56%

$2.19

13.99%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-24

$2.39

$2.40

-0.33%

-$0.01

$2.38

0.59%

$2.09

14.66%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-24

$2.46

$2.47

-0.40%

-$0.01

$2.37

4.18%

$2.11

16.88%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-24

$2.06

$2.01

2.49%

$0.05

$1.79

14.71%

$1.90

8.25%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-24

$742.57

$738.22

0.59%

$4.35

$703.99

5.48%

$627.98

18.25%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-24

$99.84

$98.98

0.87%

$0.86

$94.18

6.02%

$88.31

13.06%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-24

56.90%

53.26%

6.83%

3.64%

61.73%

-7.82%

42.06%

35.28%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-24

64.85%

64.25%

0.93%

0.60%

64.68%

0.26%

42.52%

52.52%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-24

97.40%

80.75%

20.62%

16.65%

92.38%

5.43%

43.62%

123.29%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-24

60.24%

60.23%

0.02%

0.01%

69.68%

-13.55%

44.18%

36.35%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-24

91.64%

97.55%

-6.06%

-5.91%

83.86%

9.28%

46.85%

95.60%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-24

86.95%

116.41%

-25.31%

-29.46%

83.11%

4.62%

85.67%

1.49%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-24

339.87%

350.60%

-3.06%

-10.73%

359.99%

-5.59%

175.21%

93.98%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-24

EUR 34.90

EUR 34.87

0.09%

EUR 0.03

EUR 34.86

0.11%

EUR 49.26

-29.16%

 

 

NBP

Aug-24

GBP 82.37

GBP 81.68

0.85%

GBP 0.69

GBP 83.47

-1.31%

GBP 118.11

-30.26%

 

 

German Base

Aug-24

EUR 76.53

EUR 74.50

2.72%

EUR 2.03

EUR 83.90

-8.79%

EUR 131.13

-41.64%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-24

GBP 73.00

GBP 77.11

-5.33%

-GBP 4.11

GBP 74.66

-2.23%

GBP 109.88

-33.56%

 

 

French Base

Aug-24

EUR 42.12

EUR 45.13

-6.68%

-EUR 3.01

EUR 60.98

-30.93%

EUR 129.23

-67.41%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-24

EUR 105.07

EUR 102.58

2.42%

EUR 2.49

EUR 106.03

-0.91%

EUR 141.24

-25.61%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-24

$12.52

$12.52

0.02%

$0.00

$11.92

5.08%

$15.73

-20.41%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/25/24

6/24/24

% Change

Change

5/24/24

% Change

6/26/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Aug-24

$34.90

$34.87

0.09%

$0.03

$34.86

0.11%

$49.26

-29.16%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Aug-24

$82.37

$81.68

0.85%

$0.69

$83.47

-1.31%

$118.11

-30.26%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Aug-24

$76.53

$74.50

2.72%

$2.03

$83.90

-8.79%

$131.13

-41.64%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Aug-24

$73.00

$77.11

-5.33%

-$4.11

$74.66

-2.23%

$109.88

-33.56%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Aug-24

$42.12

$45.13

-6.68%

-$3.01

$60.98

-30.93%

$129.23

-67.41%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$105.07

$102.58

2.42%

$2.49

$106.03

-0.91%

$141.24

-25.61%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Aug-24

$12.52

$12.52

0.02%

$0.00

$11.92

5.08%

$15.73

-20.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

49

32

46

88

47

58

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

64

33

52

138

43

83

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

87

49

59

182

34

76

23.00%

72.00%

 

 

W N Central

69

20

14

221

21

-21

11.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

97

18

33

663

82

55

14.00%

9.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

27

39

511

116

116

29.00%

29.00%

 

 

W S Central

115

9

-15

896

167

65

23.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

56

-2

15

283

-14

71

-5.00%

33.00%

 

 

Pacific

19

-6

11

65

-55

30

-46.00%

86.00%

 

 

United States

74

20

30

352

46

59

15.00%

21.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/22/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

6

-5

-14

5,772

-867

-6

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-4

-6

5,173

-768

17

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-7

-10

5,393

-1,134

-470

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-4

1

5,660

-1,118

-876

-16.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

-1

2,458

-410

-9

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,082

-541

-20

-15.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,059

-240

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

0

-4

4,913

-307

-595

-6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

9

-6

-15

3,118

-112

-514

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

3

-3

-6

3,957

-586

-260

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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