Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-27-2023

Jun 27, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:30 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.763

$2.791

-1.00%

-$0.028

5,907

 

 

WTI

$68.91

$69.37

-0.66%

-$0.46

167,390

 

 

Brent

$73.72

$74.18

-0.62%

-$0.46

4,453

 

 

ULSD

$2.462

$2.439

0.96%

$0.023

1,902

 

 

RBOB

$2.549

$2.537

0.47%

$0.012

3,605

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.78

$4.81

-0.62%

-$0.03

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$34.13

$33.14

2.97%

$0.98

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$47.62

$44.63

6.68%

$2.98

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/23/23

682

-5

-71

06/24/22

 

 

Canada

06/23/23

169

10

15

06/24/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/20/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

113,527

113,003

112,920

83

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

93,473

92,829

92,867

-38

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

447,282

419,217

435,040

-15,823

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

267,077

201,628

195,684

5,944

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

148,800

138,158

140,165

-2,007

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,482

38,137

38,037

100

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

167,816

166,828

167,332

-504

 

 

RBOB

338,754

317,730

324,035

-6,305

 

 

HSC Basis

574,208

568,463

562,446

6,017

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/22/18

 

 

 

6/16/23

6/9/23

Net Change

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

599

574

25

4.36%

430

39.30%

493

21.45%

 

 

Midwest

658

632

26

4.11%

506

30.04%

556

18.35%

 

 

Mountain

157

148

9

6.08%

128

22.66%

144

8.73%

 

 

Pacific

191

176

15

8.52%

231

-17.32%

253

-24.51%

 

 

South

1,125

1,105

20

1.81%

875

28.57%

961

17.04%

 

 

    Salt

330

324

6

1.85%

248

33.06%

286

15.38%

 

 

    Non_Salt

794

781

13

1.66%

628

26.43%

676

17.53%

 

 

Total

2,729

2,634

95

3.61%

2,169

25.82%

2,408

13.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$53.53

$50.60

5.79%

$2.93

$54.11

-1.06%

$90.06

-40.55%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$130.49

$143.74

-9.22%

-$13.25

$62.27

109.54%

$75.83

72.09%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$90.23

$98.55

-8.45%

-$8.32

$86.74

4.03%

$113.10

-20.22%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$59.64

$56.61

5.35%

$3.03

$59.20

0.76%

$93.29

-36.07%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$67.09

$57.58

16.53%

$9.52

$74.93

-10.46%

$72.19

-7.06%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$146.00

$162.90

-10.38%

-$16.91

$145.04

0.66%

$124.59

17.18%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$55.50

$47.69

16.37%

$7.81

$60.20

-7.80%

$71.41

-22.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.791

$2.729

2.27%

$0.06

$2.48

12.72%

$4.70

-40.67%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.062

-$0.080

-22.08%

$0.02

-$0.11

-45.29%

-$0.22

-71.36%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.192

-$0.203

5.84%

$0.01

-$0.17

14.93%

-$0.23

-15.03%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.440

-$0.443

-0.77%

$0.00

-$0.88

-50.09%

-$2.36

-81.35%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.481

$0.851

74.02%

$0.63

$1.72

-14.01%

-$0.43

-441.77%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.215

-$1.173

3.63%

-$0.04

-$1.20

1.19%

-$1.26

-3.20%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.465

$1.564

-6.31%

-$0.10

$1.72

-14.75%

$0.61

141.63%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.567

$0.573

-0.89%

-$0.01

$0.62

-8.96%

$1.00

-43.04%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.557

$0.563

-0.90%

-$0.01

$0.62

-10.78%

$1.02

-45.21%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.234

$0.223

5.25%

$0.01

$0.20

17.80%

$0.35

-33.01%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.248

$1.240

0.63%

$0.01

$1.41

-11.63%

$1.85

-32.61%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.592

$0.598

-1.11%

-$0.01

$0.71

-16.85%

$1.18

-49.84%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.542

$0.553

-1.89%

-$0.01

$0.62

-12.52%

$0.99

-45.33%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.393

$1.363

2.24%

$0.03

$1.45

-3.84%

$1.85

-24.74%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$69.37

$69.16

0.30%

$0.21

$71.93

-3.56%

$87.27

-20.51%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$74.18

$73.85

0.44%

$0.33

$76.18

-2.63%

$92.40

-19.72%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.20

-$10.71

4.35%

-$0.49

-$13.96

-19.79%

-$15.00

-25.32%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$72.37

$71.82

0.75%

$0.54

$73.56

-1.62%

$88.82

-18.52%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$69.01

$68.00

1.46%

$1.01

$70.07

-1.52%

$86.11

-19.86%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$69.68

$69.32

0.52%

$0.36

$70.64

-1.35%

$87.09

-19.99%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$72.18

$71.85

0.46%

$0.33

$75.01

-3.77%

$89.81

-19.63%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.44

$2.41

1.33%

$0.03

$2.34

4.36%

$3.15

-22.62%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.54

$2.51

1.24%

$0.03

$2.54

-0.08%

$2.74

-7.37%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.44

$2.41

1.29%

$0.03

$2.44

-0.08%

$2.64

-7.65%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.32

$2.19

5.84%

$0.13

$2.15

7.91%

$2.99

-22.47%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.58

$2.57

0.70%

$0.02

$2.40

7.85%

$2.34

10.24%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$658.00

$652.30

0.87%

$5.70

$626.72

4.99%

$937.07

-29.78%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$89.46

$90.90

-1.59%

-$1.45

$89.69

-0.26%

$117.23

-23.69%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

67.74%

67.61%

0.19%

0.13%

66.23%

2.28%

39.29%

72.41%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

68.98%

72.97%

-5.47%

-3.99%

104.60%

-34.05%

50.15%

37.55%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

93.45%

101.73%

-8.14%

-8.28%

90.38%

3.40%

117.60%

-20.54%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

70.82%

69.65%

1.68%

1.17%

67.32%

5.20%

41.92%

68.94%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

78.68%

78.74%

-0.08%

-0.06%

75.31%

4.47%

59.50%

32.24%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

175.04%

172.57%

1.43%

2.47%

138.30%

26.57%

87.67%

99.66%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

260.12%

257.38%

1.06%

2.74%

207.08%

25.61%

104.42%

149.11%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/26/23

6/23/23

% Change

Change

5/25/23

% Change

6/24/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 33.00

EUR 34.15

-3.36%

-EUR 1.15

EUR 27.52

19.89%

EUR 84.60

-60.99%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 81.26

GBP 84.35

-3.67%

-GBP 3.10

GBP 65.95

23.21%

GBP 192.48

-57.78%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 98.15

EUR 100.03

-1.88%

-EUR 1.88

EUR 87.50

12.17%

EUR 220.47

-55.48%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 88.66

GBP 87.02

1.89%

GBP 1.64

GBP 76.83

15.40%

GBP 179.16

-50.51%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 100.24

EUR 98.79

1.46%

EUR 1.44

EUR 84.01

19.32%

EUR 211.53

-52.61%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 117.43

EUR 113.43

3.53%

EUR 4.00

EUR 104.44

12.44%

EUR 215.44

-45.49%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$10.67

$10.72

-0.48%

-$0.05

$9.08

17.57%

$26.89

-60.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

-12

4

34

-13

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-15

8

61

-44

-61

-42.00%

-50.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

3

-9

115

-45

-113

-28.00%

-49.00%

 

 

W N Central

64

12

-20

252

37

-46

17.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

65

-16

-14

619

15

-134

2.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

61

-15

-28

406

-11

-145

-3.00%

-26.00%

 

 

W S Central

131

23

-5

850

91

-185

12.00%

-18.00%

 

 

Mountain

43

-18

-10

218

-97

-131

-31.00%

-37.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-24

-31

35

-94

-77

-73.00%

-69.00%

 

 

United States

48

-8

-12

301

-21

-107

-7.00%

-26.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

17

8

-10

5,765

-842

-212

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

5

1

-4

5,096

-814

-129

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

4

-2

-3

5,855

-640

-66

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-6

1

6,536

-210

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

0

2,436

-417

22

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

14

0

5

5,519

319

743

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

Pacific

27

13

14

3,648

429

615

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

8

3

1

4,204

-317

134

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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