Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jun-28-2023

Jun 28, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:07 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.694

$2.763

-2.50%

-$0.069

620

 

 

WTI

$67.58

$67.70

-0.18%

-$0.12

154,746

 

 

Brent

$72.13

$72.26

-0.18%

-$0.13

4,955

 

 

ULSD

$2.381

$2.399

-0.74%

-$0.018

2,101

 

 

RBOB

$2.535

$2.517

0.73%

$0.018

3,034

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.53

$4.56

-0.66%

-$0.03

Aug-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$33.60

$33.32

0.84%

$0.28

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$45.41

$47.62

-4.65%

-$2.22

Jul-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

06/23/23

682

-5

-71

06/24/22

 

 

Canada

06/23/23

169

10

15

06/24/22

 

 

International

May

965

18

148

May

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 6/20/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

113,527

113,003

112,920

83

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

93,473

92,829

92,867

-38

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

447,282

419,217

435,040

-15,823

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

267,077

201,628

195,684

5,944

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

148,800

138,158

140,165

-2,007

 

 

NYM Ethanol

38,482

38,137

38,037

100

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

167,816

166,828

167,332

-504

 

 

RBOB

338,754

317,730

324,035

-6,305

 

 

HSC Basis

574,208

568,463

562,446

6,017

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

06/22/18

 

 

 

6/16/23

6/9/23

Net Change

% Change

6/17/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

599

574

25

4.36%

430

39.30%

493

21.45%

 

 

Midwest

658

632

26

4.11%

506

30.04%

556

18.35%

 

 

Mountain

157

148

9

6.08%

128

22.66%

144

8.73%

 

 

Pacific

191

176

15

8.52%

231

-17.32%

253

-24.51%

 

 

South

1,125

1,105

20

1.81%

875

28.57%

961

17.04%

 

 

    Salt

330

324

6

1.85%

248

33.06%

286

15.38%

 

 

    Non_Salt

794

781

13

1.66%

628

26.43%

676

17.53%

 

 

Total

2,729

2,634

95

3.61%

2,169

25.82%

2,408

13.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jul-23

$51.17

$53.53

-4.41%

-$2.36

$53.06

-3.57%

$85.95

-40.47%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jul-23

$120.99

$130.49

-7.28%

-$9.50

$65.27

85.37%

$65.04

86.01%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jul-23

$78.49

$90.23

-13.01%

-$11.74

$88.36

-11.16%

$105.11

-25.32%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jul-23

$57.51

$59.64

-3.57%

-$2.13

$58.79

-2.18%

$89.23

-35.54%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jul-23

$65.07

$67.09

-3.02%

-$2.02

$70.13

-7.22%

$64.58

0.77%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jul-23

$133.93

$146.00

-8.26%

-$12.06

$160.06

-16.32%

$125.48

6.74%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jul-23

$53.32

$55.50

-3.93%

-$2.18

$57.79

-7.73%

$67.80

-21.35%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-23

$2.763

$2.791

-1.00%

-$0.03

$2.42

14.32%

$4.74

-41.76%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-23

-$0.044

-$0.062

-29.47%

$0.02

-$0.12

-63.32%

-$0.19

-76.53%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-23

-$0.227

-$0.192

-15.40%

-$0.03

-$0.17

30.76%

-$0.20

10.86%

 

 

Waha

Jul-23

-$0.293

-$0.440

-33.37%

$0.15

-$0.92

-68.04%

-$2.22

-86.81%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-23

$1.533

$1.481

3.50%

$0.05

$1.64

-6.34%

-$0.41

-472.38%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-23

-$1.265

-$1.215

4.04%

-$0.05

-$1.20

5.23%

-$1.21

4.86%

 

 

Socal

Jul-23

$1.337

$1.465

-8.76%

-$0.13

$1.64

-18.26%

$0.65

105.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jul-23

$0.546

$0.567

-3.77%

-$0.02

$0.62

-11.72%

$1.00

-45.65%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jul-23

$0.537

$0.557

-3.60%

-$0.02

$0.62

-13.66%

$0.97

-44.55%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jul-23

$0.235

$0.234

0.17%

$0.00

$0.20

19.54%

$0.35

-32.84%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.205

$1.248

-3.38%

-$0.04

$1.43

-15.53%

$1.81

-33.42%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jul-23

$0.586

$0.592

-0.98%

-$0.01

$0.70

-16.76%

$1.18

-50.44%

 

 

Conway Propane

Jul-23

$0.527

$0.542

-2.83%

-$0.02

$0.62

-14.98%

$0.99

-47.02%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Jul-23

$1.373

$1.393

-1.50%

-$0.02

$1.43

-4.09%

$1.86

-26.20%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Aug-23

$67.70

$69.37

-2.47%

-$1.67

$72.76

-6.95%

$88.56

-23.55%

 

 

Brent

Aug-23

$72.26

$74.18

-2.66%

-$1.92

$76.98

-6.13%

$93.81

-22.97%

 

 

WCS

Aug-23

-$11.47

-$11.20

2.35%

-$0.27

-$14.86

-22.82%

-$15.65

-26.70%

 

 

LLS

Aug-23

$70.86

$72.37

-2.13%

-$1.51

$74.43

-4.79%

$88.63

-20.05%

 

 

Mars

Aug-23

$68.25

$69.01

-1.11%

-$0.76

$71.00

-3.88%

$87.11

-21.66%

 

 

Sour

Aug-23

$68.40

$69.68

-1.88%

-$1.28

$71.32

-4.10%

$88.08

-22.34%

 

 

ESPO

Aug-23

$70.26

$72.18

-2.73%

-$1.92

$75.27

-6.66%

$90.93

-22.73%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jul-23

$2.40

$2.44

-1.64%

-$0.04

$2.36

1.87%

$3.11

-22.81%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.51

$2.54

-1.22%

-$0.03

$2.56

-1.84%

$2.74

-8.40%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jul-23

$2.41

$2.44

-1.27%

-$0.03

$2.46

-1.91%

$2.64

-8.72%

 

 

GC Jet

Jul-23

$2.20

$2.32

-5.05%

-$0.12

$2.16

2.09%

$2.96

-25.71%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jul-23

$2.53

$2.58

-2.13%

-$0.06

$2.43

4.16%

$2.30

9.77%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jul-23

$661.12

$658.00

0.47%

$3.12

$635.78

3.98%

$907.61

-27.16%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jul-23

$91.26

$89.46

2.01%

$1.80

$88.02

3.68%

$117.21

-22.14%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Aug-23

70.18%

67.74%

3.60%

2.44%

67.69%

3.68%

42.89%

63.63%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Aug-23

71.82%

68.98%

4.12%

2.84%

100.85%

-28.79%

53.37%

34.57%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Aug-23

94.23%

93.45%

0.83%

0.78%

94.26%

-0.03%

123.07%

-23.43%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Aug-23

69.27%

70.82%

-2.19%

-1.55%

66.36%

4.39%

45.63%

51.81%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Aug-23

74.00%

78.68%

-5.95%

-4.68%

75.96%

-2.58%

61.02%

21.27%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Aug-23

174.79%

175.04%

-0.14%

-0.25%

161.24%

8.40%

81.75%

113.81%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Aug-23

263.85%

260.12%

1.43%

3.73%

212.20%

24.34%

101.68%

159.49%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

6/27/23

6/26/23

% Change

Change

5/26/23

% Change

6/27/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Aug-23

EUR 35.23

EUR 33.00

6.76%

EUR 2.23

EUR 26.81

31.41%

EUR 83.27

-57.69%

 

 

NBP

Aug-23

GBP 87.09

GBP 81.26

7.18%

GBP 5.84

GBP 63.30

37.59%

GBP 195.50

-55.45%

 

 

German Base

Aug-23

EUR 98.08

EUR 98.15

-0.07%

-EUR 0.07

EUR 84.65

15.87%

EUR 221.68

-55.76%

 

 

UK Base

Aug-23

GBP 85.33

GBP 88.66

-3.76%

-GBP 3.33

GBP 74.16

15.07%

GBP 173.94

-50.94%

 

 

French Base

Aug-23

EUR 94.78

EUR 100.24

-5.44%

-EUR 5.46

EUR 80.15

18.25%

EUR 197.34

-51.97%

 

 

Italian Base

Aug-23

EUR 113.34

EUR 117.43

-3.48%

-EUR 4.09

EUR 101.28

11.91%

EUR 216.49

-47.65%

 

 

JKM LNG

Aug-23

$11.44

$10.67

7.20%

$0.77

$8.85

29.29%

$22.37

-48.85%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

-12

4

34

-13

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-15

8

61

-44

-61

-42.00%

-50.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

3

-9

115

-45

-113

-28.00%

-49.00%

 

 

W N Central

64

12

-20

252

37

-46

17.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

65

-16

-14

619

15

-134

2.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

61

-15

-28

406

-11

-145

-3.00%

-26.00%

 

 

W S Central

131

23

-5

850

91

-185

12.00%

-18.00%

 

 

Mountain

43

-18

-10

218

-97

-131

-31.00%

-37.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-24

-31

35

-94

-77

-73.00%

-69.00%

 

 

United States

48

-8

-12

301

-21

-107

-7.00%

-26.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06/24/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

17

8

-10

5,765

-842

-212

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

5

1

-4

5,096

-814

-129

-14.00%

-2.00%

 

 

E N Central

4

-2

-3

5,855

-640

-66

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-6

1

6,536

-210

163

-3.00%

3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

0

0

2,436

-417

22

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

3,102

-502

-33

-14.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

2,100

-187

155

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

Mountain

14

0

5

5,519

319

743

6.00%

16.00%

 

 

Pacific

27

13

14

3,648

429

615

13.00%

20.00%

 

 

United States

8

3

1

4,204

-317

134

-7.00%

3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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