Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-07-2024

Mar 7, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.921

$1.929

-0.41%

-$0.008

15,283

 

 

WTI

$78.58

$79.13

-0.70%

-$0.55

87,448

 

 

Brent

$82.41

$82.96

-0.66%

-$0.55

8,683

 

 

ULSD

$2.658

$2.663

-0.18%

-$0.005

6,518

 

 

RBOB

$2.543

$2.554

-0.43%

-$0.011

4,086

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.52

$4.55

-0.66%

-$0.03

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.46

$29.40

0.19%

$0.06

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$31.07

$32.51

-4.42%

-$1.44

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/01/24

629

3

-120

03/04/23

 

 

Canada

03/01/24

231

0

-15

03/04/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/20/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,189

95,769

95,880

-111

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,797

82,482

82,646

-164

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

391,941

369,385

379,693

-10,308

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,874

122,677

108,540

14,137

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

116,848

109,544

108,904

640

 

 

NYM Ethanol

52,454

51,704

52,046

-342

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,467

161,545

162,247

-702

 

 

RBOB

391,100

366,555

376,101

-9,546

 

 

HSC Basis

788,024

779,794

782,203

-2,409

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

2/23/24

2/16/24

Net Change

% Change

2/24/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

453

505

-52

-10.30%

451

0.44%

391

15.92%

 

 

Midwest

600

631

-31

-4.91%

544

10.29%

462

29.93%

 

 

Mountain

169

173

-4

-2.31%

99

70.71%

97

73.87%

 

 

Pacific

217

217

0

0.00%

99

119.19%

156

38.75%

 

 

South

935

944

-9

-0.95%

922

1.41%

711

31.58%

 

 

    Salt

275

278

-3

-1.08%

261

5.36%

198

38.61%

 

 

    Non_Salt

660

666

-6

-0.90%

661

-0.15%

512

28.86%

 

 

Total

2,374

2,470

-96

-3.89%

2,114

12.30%

1,817

30.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$35.19

$36.64

-3.94%

-$1.44

$33.31

5.66%

$43.78

-19.62%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$37.08

$35.36

4.85%

$1.71

$36.42

1.81%

$36.28

2.20%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$20.12

$19.50

3.17%

$0.62

$29.63

-32.10%

$36.27

-44.53%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$36.66

$38.36

-4.43%

-$1.70

$35.17

4.26%

$46.96

-21.93%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$31.16

$31.15

0.02%

$0.01

$33.78

-7.75%

$52.65

-40.81%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$37.01

$38.09

-2.83%

-$1.08

$64.42

-42.55%

$56.45

-34.44%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$30.40

$30.04

1.19%

$0.36

$31.80

-4.40%

$44.42

-31.57%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.929

$1.957

-1.43%

-$0.03

$2.01

-3.89%

$3.43

-43.76%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.199

-$0.197

1.12%

$0.00

-$0.25

-18.93%

-$0.39

-48.38%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.117

-$0.123

5.22%

$0.01

-$0.07

60.00%

-$0.08

45.45%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.192

-$1.175

-1.45%

-$0.02

-$1.11

7.30%

-$1.52

-21.44%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.016

-$0.026

40.68%

$0.01

$0.25

-106.24%

$1.10

-101.42%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.564

-$0.522

8.13%

-$0.04

-$0.72

-21.63%

-$0.98

-42.31%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.001

$0.021

-106.80%

-$0.02

$0.01

-126.42%

$0.05

-102.70%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.813

$0.810

0.29%

$0.00

$0.84

-2.95%

$0.80

1.94%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.814

$0.798

2.06%

$0.02

$0.84

-3.57%

$0.77

5.60%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.193

$0.194

-0.65%

$0.00

$0.20

-1.91%

$0.24

-20.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.602

$1.558

2.81%

$0.04

$1.43

11.86%

$1.50

6.71%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.927

$0.904

2.57%

$0.02

$0.94

-1.63%

$0.86

8.36%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$5.998

$5.890

1.83%

$0.11

$5.84

2.73%

$5.57

7.67%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$5.990

$5.918

1.22%

$0.07

$5.74

4.42%

$5.33

12.36%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$79.13

$78.15

1.24%

$0.98

$73.37

7.85%

$72.90

8.55%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$83.35

$82.39

1.14%

$0.95

$78.59

6.05%

$78.06

6.77%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$15.34

-$15.83

-3.21%

$0.49

-$17.59

-12.77%

-$16.40

-6.46%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$81.21

$80.50

0.87%

$0.70

$76.10

6.72%

$74.25

9.37%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.35

$76.81

0.70%

$0.54

$73.71

4.94%

$71.49

8.20%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.45

$78.02

0.54%

$0.42

$73.86

6.20%

$71.69

9.43%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$81.35

$80.39

1.17%

$0.95

$76.59

6.21%

$76.16

6.81%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.66

$2.60

2.11%

$0.05

$2.68

-0.93%

$2.57

3.62%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.55

$2.53

0.75%

$0.02

$2.45

4.17%

$2.40

6.34%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.45

$2.43

0.78%

$0.02

$2.35

4.35%

$2.30

6.62%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.54

$2.49

1.93%

$0.05

$2.51

1.12%

$2.43

4.31%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.61

$1.55

3.61%

$0.06

$1.62

-0.56%

$1.69

-4.80%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$764.28

$750.40

1.85%

$13.88

$747.45

2.25%

$697.03

9.65%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$99.74

$100.26

-0.52%

-$0.52

$99.24

0.51%

$95.68

4.24%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

58.65%

60.40%

-2.90%

-1.75%

59.52%

-1.46%

57.73%

1.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

61.71%

62.74%

-1.64%

-1.03%

57.31%

7.68%

57.42%

7.47%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

128.50%

115.99%

10.79%

12.51%

107.77%

19.24%

92.28%

39.25%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

58.11%

58.80%

-1.17%

-0.69%

59.56%

-2.43%

58.50%

-0.67%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

56.34%

55.94%

0.72%

0.40%

42.36%

33.00%

46.24%

21.84%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

68.23%

134.33%

-49.21%

-66.10%

31.32%

117.85%

30.05%

127.05%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

144.09%

185.40%

-22.28%

-41.31%

306.31%

-52.96%

63.47%

127.02%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 26.25

EUR 27.30

-3.83%

-EUR 1.05

EUR 28.52

-7.97%

EUR 48.50

-45.87%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 65.76

GBP 68.27

-3.67%

-GBP 2.51

GBP 69.86

-5.87%

GBP 127.55

-48.44%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 60.38

EUR 62.17

-2.88%

-EUR 1.79

EUR 62.68

-3.66%

EUR 138.70

-56.46%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 61.51

GBP 65.35

-5.86%

-GBP 3.83

GBP 66.00

-6.80%

GBP 122.35

-49.72%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 55.54

EUR 55.74

-0.36%

-EUR 0.20

EUR 60.40

-8.05%

EUR 130.60

-57.47%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 82.52

EUR 84.65

-2.52%

-EUR 2.13

EUR 88.15

-6.39%

EUR 150.06

-45.01%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.37

$8.78

-4.68%

-$0.41

$9.45

-11.45%

$13.58

-38.38%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/6/24

3/5/24

% Change

Change

2/6/24

% Change

3/8/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$26.25

$27.30

-3.83%

-$1.05

$28.52

-7.97%

$48.50

-45.87%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$65.76

$68.27

-3.67%

-$2.51

$69.86

-5.87%

$127.55

-48.44%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$60.38

$62.17

-2.88%

-$1.79

$62.68

-3.66%

$138.70

-56.46%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$61.51

$65.35

-5.86%

-$3.83

$66.00

-6.80%

$122.35

-49.72%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$55.54

$55.74

-0.36%

-$0.20

$60.40

-8.05%

$130.60

-57.47%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$82.52

$84.65

-2.52%

-$2.13

$88.15

-6.39%

$150.06

-45.01%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.37

$8.78

-4.68%

-$0.41

$9.45

-11.45%

$13.58

-38.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-1

-11

34

-34

-51

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

2

-1

-3

2

-11

-13

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

11

4

-10

22

-11

-35

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

3

0

-3

9

-9

-14

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

221

-21

-48

4,255

-616

123

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

198

-25

-14

3,939

-487

150

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

E N Central

181

-55

-18

4,171

-764

-155

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

182

-54

-68

4,366

-897

-608

-17.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

93

-16

36

2,027

-252

103

-11.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

-31

45

2,576

-333

153

-11.00%

6.00%

 

 

W S Central

56

-26

17

1,797

-149

51

-8.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

151

-14

-66

3,579

-326

-482

-8.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

115

13

-64

2,119

-181

-362

-8.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

138

-24

-15

3,039

-418

-92

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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