Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-08-2024

Mar 8, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:02 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.777

$1.818

-2.26%

-$0.041

27,677

 

 

WTI

$78.74

$78.93

-0.24%

-$0.19

104,687

 

 

Brent

$82.83

$82.96

-0.16%

-$0.13

9,071

 

 

ULSD

$2.673

$2.695

-0.81%

-$0.022

7,509

 

 

RBOB

$2.552

$2.555

-0.13%

-$0.003

4,731

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.61

$4.64

-0.65%

-$0.03

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.53

$29.85

-1.05%

-$0.31

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$28.57

$31.30

-8.72%

-$2.73

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/01/24

629

3

-120

03/04/23

 

 

Canada

03/01/24

231

0

-15

03/04/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 2/20/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,189

95,769

95,880

-111

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,797

82,482

82,646

-164

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

391,941

369,385

379,693

-10,308

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

145,874

122,677

108,540

14,137

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

116,848

109,544

108,904

640

 

 

NYM Ethanol

52,454

51,704

52,046

-342

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,467

161,545

162,247

-702

 

 

RBOB

391,100

366,555

376,101

-9,546

 

 

HSC Basis

788,024

779,794

782,203

-2,409

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

3/1/24

2/23/24

Net Change

% Change

3/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

422

453

-31

-6.84%

416

1.44%

364

15.93%

 

 

Midwest

575

600

-25

-4.17%

515

11.65%

437

31.52%

 

 

Mountain

169

169

0

0.00%

92

83.70%

94

80.56%

 

 

Pacific

219

217

2

0.92%

81

170.37%

152

44.08%

 

 

South

949

935

14

1.50%

925

2.59%

708

34.04%

 

 

   Salt

285

275

10

3.64%

261

9.20%

201

42.07%

 

 

    Non_Salt

664

660

4

0.61%

664

0.00%

507

30.86%

 

 

Total

2,334

2,374

-40

-1.68%

2,030

14.98%

1,755

32.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.38

$35.19

-8.00%

-$2.82

$35.61

-9.07%

$43.69

-25.88%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$34.28

$37.08

-7.53%

-$2.79

$35.41

-3.19%

$35.95

-4.63%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$19.78

$20.12

-1.68%

-$0.34

$29.75

-33.51%

$34.74

-43.06%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$33.96

$36.66

-7.37%

-$2.70

$36.92

-8.02%

$46.83

-27.48%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$29.05

$31.16

-6.76%

-$2.11

$34.15

-14.91%

$48.50

-40.10%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$33.95

$37.01

-8.26%

-$3.06

$61.90

-45.15%

$55.28

-38.58%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$27.94

$30.40

-8.10%

-$2.46

$32.12

-13.02%

$40.80

-31.53%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.818

$1.929

-5.75%

-$0.11

$1.98

-8.18%

$3.38

-46.15%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.237

-$0.199

19.19%

-$0.04

-$0.24

-0.25%

-$0.38

-37.27%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.134

-$0.117

-12.64%

-$0.02

-$0.05

150.37%

-$0.08

74.54%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.232

-$1.192

-3.38%

-$0.04

-$1.13

9.45%

-$1.52

-18.83%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.034

-$0.016

-119.87%

-$0.02

$0.17

-119.84%

$1.12

-103.06%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.642

-$0.564

13.76%

-$0.08

-$0.65

-1.28%

-$0.94

-31.72%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.009

-$0.001

514.29%

-$0.01

$0.08

-110.89%

$0.07

-112.04%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.805

$0.813

-0.90%

-$0.01

$0.84

-3.70%

$0.77

4.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.805

$0.814

-1.10%

-$0.01

$0.84

-3.86%

$0.76

6.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.195

$0.193

1.29%

$0.00

$0.19

0.62%

$0.24

-18.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.560

$1.602

-2.59%

-$0.04

$1.44

8.07%

$1.52

2.66%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.903

$0.927

-2.60%

-$0.02

$0.94

-3.73%

$0.85

5.74%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$5.931

$5.998

-1.12%

-$0.07

$5.82

1.91%

$5.50

7.91%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.030

$5.990

0.65%

$0.04

$5.75

4.89%

$5.27

14.46%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Apr-24

$78.93

$79.13

-0.25%

-$0.20

$73.91

6.79%

$72.07

9.52%

 

 

Brent

Apr-24

$83.31

$83.35

-0.05%

-$0.04

$79.21

5.17%

$77.10

8.05%

 

 

WCS

Apr-24

-$16.53

-$15.34

7.22%

-$1.19

-$18.01

-8.19%

-$16.40

0.81%

 

 

LLS

Apr-24

$80.75

$81.21

-0.57%

-$0.46

$76.70

5.27%

$75.20

7.38%

 

 

Mars

Apr-24

$77.31

$77.35

-0.05%

-$0.03

$74.18

4.23%

$70.53

9.62%

 

 

Sour

Apr-24

$78.45

$78.45

0.01%

$0.01

$74.48

5.34%

$71.04

10.43%

 

 

ESPO

Apr-24

$81.31

$81.35

-0.05%

-$0.04

$77.21

5.31%

$75.85

7.20%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.69

$2.66

1.17%

$0.03

$2.75

-2.07%

$2.59

3.78%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.55

$2.55

0.20%

$0.00

$2.49

2.61%

$2.33

9.47%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.45

$2.45

0.20%

$0.01

$2.39

2.72%

$2.23

9.90%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.59

$2.54

1.89%

$0.05

$2.58

0.47%

$2.31

11.85%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.63

$1.61

1.18%

$0.02

$1.62

0.18%

$1.67

-2.46%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$765.77

$764.28

0.19%

$1.49

$760.76

0.66%

$697.82

9.74%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$100.86

$99.74

1.12%

$1.11

$101.52

-0.65%

$95.88

5.20%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

61.05%

58.65%

4.09%

2.40%

58.17%

4.95%

55.74%

9.53%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

65.18%

61.71%

5.62%

3.47%

59.08%

10.32%

55.22%

18.04%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

137.00%

128.50%

6.61%

8.50%

105.98%

29.27%

88.71%

54.44%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

60.88%

58.11%

4.77%

2.77%

58.57%

3.94%

57.18%

6.47%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

54.24%

56.34%

-3.73%

-2.10%

45.69%

18.71%

47.67%

13.78%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

65.09%

68.23%

-4.60%

-3.14%

27.85%

133.72%

25.54%

154.86%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

124.39%

144.09%

-13.67%

-19.70%

257.35%

-51.67%

66.12%

88.13%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 26.08

EUR 26.25

-0.66%

-EUR 0.17

EUR 28.40

-8.17%

EUR 48.56

-46.30%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 65.48

GBP 65.76

-0.42%

-GBP 0.28

GBP 69.43

-5.68%

GBP 125.15

-47.68%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 59.45

EUR 60.38

-1.55%

-EUR 0.94

EUR 61.45

-3.26%

EUR 134.88

-55.92%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 60.84

GBP 61.51

-1.09%

-GBP 0.67

GBP 63.21

-3.74%

GBP 121.65

-49.98%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 53.76

EUR 55.54

-3.21%

-EUR 1.78

EUR 58.96

-8.82%

EUR 129.29

-58.42%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 83.08

EUR 82.52

0.68%

EUR 0.56

EUR 87.03

-4.54%

EUR 152.09

-45.38%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.38

$8.37

0.10%

$0.01

$9.35

-10.37%

$13.74

-39.04%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/7/24

3/6/24

% Change

Change

2/7/24

% Change

3/9/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$26.08

$26.25

-0.66%

-$0.17

$28.40

-8.17%

$48.56

-46.30%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$65.48

$65.76

-0.42%

-$0.28

$69.43

-5.68%

$125.15

-47.68%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$59.45

$60.38

-1.55%

-$0.94

$61.45

-3.26%

$134.88

-55.92%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$60.84

$61.51

-1.09%

-$0.67

$63.21

-3.74%

$121.65

-49.98%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$53.76

$55.54

-3.21%

-$1.78

$58.96

-8.82%

$129.29

-58.42%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$83.08

$82.52

0.68%

$0.56

$87.03

-4.54%

$152.09

-45.38%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.38

$8.37

0.10%

$0.01

$9.35

-10.37%

$13.74

-39.04%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-1

-11

34

-34

-51

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

2

-1

-3

2

-11

-13

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

11

4

-10

22

-11

-35

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-3

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

3

0

-3

9

-9

-14

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

221

-21

-48

4,255

-616

123

-13.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

198

-25

-14

3,939

-487

150

-11.00%

4.00%

 

 

E N Central

181

-55

-18

4,171

-764

-155

-15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W N Central

182

-54

-68

4,366

-897

-608

-17.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

93

-16

36

2,027

-252

103

-11.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

101

-31

45

2,576

-333

153

-11.00%

6.00%

 

 

W S Central

56

-26

17

1,797

-149

51

-8.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

151

-14

-66

3,579

-326

-482

-8.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

115

13

-64

2,119

-181

-362

-8.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

138

-24

-15

3,039

-418

-92

-12.00%

-3.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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