Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-11-2024

Mar 11, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:51 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.792

$1.805

-0.72%

-$0.013

22,386

 

 

WTI

$77.71

$78.01

-0.38%

-$0.30

70,382

 

 

Brent

$81.83

$82.08

-0.30%

-$0.25

6,854

 

 

ULSD

$2.616

$2.641

-0.94%

-$0.025

5,662

 

 

RBOB

$2.539

$2.527

0.46%

$0.012

4,779

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.56

$4.58

-0.44%

-$0.02

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.60

$29.35

0.85%

$0.25

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$30.33

$28.52

6.37%

$1.82

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/08/24

622

-7

-124

03/11/23

 

 

Canada

03/08/24

225

-6

2

03/11/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,063

87,681

87,758

-77

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

76,567

76,285

76,415

-130

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

378,896

356,554

367,810

-11,256

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

448,180

381,680

332,108

49,572

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

105,898

97,936

98,217

-281

 

 

NYM Ethanol

49,422

48,669

49,051

-382

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

148,146

147,137

147,947

-810

 

 

RBOB

369,388

346,078

354,541

-8,463

 

 

HSC Basis

777,873

766,100

769,391

-3,291

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

3/1/24

2/23/24

Net Change

% Change

3/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

422

453

-31

-6.84%

416

1.44%

364

15.93%

 

 

Midwest

575

600

-25

-4.17%

515

11.65%

437

31.52%

 

 

Mountain

169

169

0

0.00%

92

83.70%

94

80.56%

 

 

Pacific

219

217

2

0.92%

81

170.37%

152

44.08%

 

 

South

949

935

14

1.50%

925

2.59%

708

34.04%

 

 

    Salt

285

275

10

3.64%

261

9.20%

201

42.07%

 

 

    Non_Salt

664

660

4

0.61%

664

0.00%

507

30.86%

 

 

Total

2,334

2,374

-40

-1.68%

2,030

14.98%

1,755

32.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$34.15

$32.38

5.46%

$1.77

$33.07

3.26%

$42.55

-19.74%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$35.01

$34.28

2.11%

$0.72

$34.80

0.61%

$34.83

0.53%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$19.69

$19.78

-0.44%

-$0.09

$28.75

-31.50%

$35.83

-45.03%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$35.76

$33.96

5.29%

$1.80

$34.34

4.12%

$45.79

-21.92%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$30.69

$29.05

5.65%

$1.64

$33.12

-7.32%

$51.66

-40.58%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$38.63

$33.95

13.78%

$4.68

$62.00

-37.69%

$55.18

-29.99%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$29.52

$27.94

5.69%

$1.59

$31.15

-5.21%

$43.33

-31.86%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.805

$1.818

-0.72%

-$0.01

$1.95

-7.34%

$3.29

-45.12%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.227

-$0.237

-4.17%

$0.01

-$0.22

3.27%

-$0.39

-41.86%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.112

-$0.134

18.95%

$0.02

-$0.06

98.94%

-$0.06

75.62%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.165

-$1.232

-5.48%

$0.07

-$1.11

5.22%

-$1.52

-23.21%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.017

-$0.034

49.27%

$0.02

$0.15

-111.41%

$1.13

-101.54%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.473

-$0.642

-26.25%

$0.17

-$0.63

-25.10%

-$0.99

-52.34%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.010

-$0.009

13.95%

$0.00

$0.13

-107.34%

$0.13

-107.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.778

$0.805

-3.38%

-$0.03

$0.84

-7.90%

$0.77

0.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.783

$0.805

-2.76%

-$0.02

$0.84

-7.35%

$0.77

2.07%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.186

$0.195

-4.49%

-$0.01

$0.20

-5.72%

$0.24

-22.21%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.563

$1.560

0.15%

$0.00

$1.50

4.48%

$1.47

6.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.916

$0.903

1.50%

$0.01

$0.95

-3.99%

$0.83

9.89%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$5.890

$5.931

-0.69%

-$0.04

$5.82

1.20%

$5.43

8.40%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.073

$6.030

0.72%

$0.04

$5.83

4.21%

$5.14

18.24%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$77.50

$78.32

-1.06%

-$0.82

$76.04

1.92%

$72.44

6.99%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$82.08

$82.96

-1.07%

-$0.88

$81.08

1.23%

$77.52

5.88%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$14.23

-$13.96

1.90%

-$0.27

-$14.25

-0.18%

-$15.76

-9.71%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$79.32

$80.23

-1.14%

-$0.91

$78.83

0.63%

$73.96

7.24%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$76.62

$77.10

-0.63%

-$0.48

$74.94

2.23%

$67.98

12.71%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$77.96

$78.60

-0.82%

-$0.64

$76.58

1.80%

$68.63

13.59%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$80.08

$80.96

-1.10%

-$0.88

$79.08

1.26%

$73.30

9.25%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.64

$2.69

-1.93%

-$0.05

$2.82

-6.35%

$2.55

3.61%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.53

$2.55

-0.98%

-$0.02

$2.56

-1.10%

$2.35

7.48%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.43

$2.45

-1.02%

-$0.03

$2.46

-1.14%

$2.25

7.81%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.49

$2.59

-3.87%

-$0.10

$2.61

-4.75%

$2.32

7.34%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.63

$1.63

0.31%

$0.00

$1.62

0.43%

$1.66

-1.87%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$756.16

$765.77

-1.26%

-$9.61

$777.52

-2.75%

$685.89

10.25%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$101.00

$100.86

0.14%

$0.14

$102.02

-1.00%

$94.88

6.44%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

60.56%

61.05%

-0.80%

-0.49%

55.92%

8.30%

58.59%

3.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

66.41%

65.18%

1.89%

1.23%

57.22%

16.06%

57.30%

15.90%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

141.47%

137.00%

3.26%

4.47%

101.11%

39.92%

91.71%

54.26%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

61.64%

60.88%

1.25%

0.76%

55.59%

10.88%

59.18%

4.16%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

57.02%

54.24%

5.13%

2.78%

43.17%

32.08%

47.67%

19.61%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

68.36%

65.09%

5.02%

3.27%

32.98%

107.28%

30.14%

126.81%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

40.15%

124.39%

-67.72%

-84.24%

307.32%

-86.94%

66.50%

-39.62%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 26.58

EUR 26.08

1.93%

EUR 0.50

EUR 27.92

-4.79%

EUR 56.64

-53.07%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 66.40

GBP 65.48

1.41%

GBP 0.92

GBP 68.19

-2.62%

GBP 147.73

-55.05%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 58.70

EUR 59.45

-1.26%

-EUR 0.75

EUR 60.10

-2.34%

EUR 150.50

-61.00%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 60.56

GBP 60.84

-0.47%

-GBP 0.28

GBP 61.39

-1.36%

GBP 146.71

-58.72%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 52.51

EUR 53.76

-2.33%

-EUR 1.25

EUR 57.03

-7.92%

EUR 156.41

-66.43%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 82.88

EUR 83.08

-0.24%

-EUR 0.20

EUR 86.74

-4.45%

EUR 165.96

-50.06%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.65

$8.38

3.29%

$0.28

$9.20

-5.89%

$16.26

-46.77%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/8/24

3/7/24

% Change

Change

2/8/24

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$26.58

$26.08

1.93%

$0.50

$27.92

-4.79%

$56.64

-53.07%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$66.40

$65.48

1.41%

$0.92

$68.19

-2.62%

$147.73

-55.05%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$58.70

$59.45

-1.26%

-$0.75

$60.10

-2.34%

$150.50

-61.00%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$60.56

$60.84

-0.47%

-$0.28

$61.39

-1.36%

$146.71

-58.72%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$52.51

$53.76

-2.33%

-$1.25

$57.03

-7.92%

$156.41

-66.43%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$82.88

$83.08

-0.24%

-$0.20

$86.74

-4.45%

$165.96

-50.06%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.65

$8.38

3.29%

$0.28

$9.20

-5.89%

$16.26

-46.77%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

3

-7

47

-31

-58

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-3

-2

2

-14

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

18

9

1

40

-2

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-4

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

1

-1

13

-9

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

161

-68

-44

4,415

-684

50

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

149

-61

-39

4,087

-549

81

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

131

-90

-52

4,302

-853

-238

-17.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-56

-38

4,531

-952

-678

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-53

-16

2,075

-304

75

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

48

-73

-16

2,624

-405

124

-13.00%

5.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-39

0

1,832

-188

45

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

179

22

-17

3,758

-303

-523

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

126

26

-30

2,245

-155

-413

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

108

-44

-29

3,147

-462

-142

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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