Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-12-2024

Mar 12, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.809

$1.759

2.84%

$0.050

42,738

 

 

WTI

$77.49

$77.93

-0.56%

-$0.44

80,310

 

 

Brent

$81.81

$82.21

-0.49%

-$0.40

8,334

 

 

ULSD

$2.613

$2.652

-1.47%

-$0.039

10,021

 

 

RBOB

$2.561

$2.580

-0.77%

-$0.020

8,985

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.68

$4.68

0.00%

$0.00

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.37

$30.98

-1.98%

-$0.61

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$27.26

$30.38

-10.27%

-$3.12

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/08/24

622

-7

-124

03/11/23

 

 

Canada

03/08/24

225

-6

2

03/11/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,063

87,681

87,758

-77

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

76,567

76,285

76,415

-130

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

378,896

356,554

367,810

-11,256

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

448,180

381,680

332,108

49,572

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

105,898

97,936

98,217

-281

 

 

NYM Ethanol

49,422

48,669

49,051

-382

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

148,146

147,137

147,947

-810

 

 

RBOB

369,388

346,078

354,541

-8,463

 

 

HSC Basis

777,873

766,100

769,391

-3,291

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

3/1/24

2/23/24

Net Change

% Change

3/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

422

453

-31

-6.84%

416

1.44%

364

15.93%

 

 

Midwest

575

600

-25

-4.17%

515

11.65%

437

31.52%

 

 

Mountain

169

169

0

0.00%

92

83.70%

94

80.56%

 

 

Pacific

219

217

2

0.92%

81

170.37%

152

44.08%

 

 

South

949

935

14

1.50%

925

2.59%

708

34.04%

 

 

    Salt

285

275

10

3.64%

261

9.20%

201

42.07%

 

 

    Non_Salt

664

660

4

0.61%

664

0.00%

507

30.86%

 

 

Total

2,334

2,374

-40

-1.68%

2,030

14.98%

1,755

32.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$31.13

$34.15

-8.82%

-$3.01

$32.44

-4.02%

$42.96

-27.53%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$33.53

$35.01

-4.23%

-$1.48

$33.74

-0.62%

$34.60

-3.10%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$19.00

$19.69

-3.53%

-$0.69

$28.88

-34.21%

$34.01

-44.14%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$32.52

$35.76

-9.04%

-$3.23

$34.03

-4.43%

$46.22

-29.63%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$29.34

$30.69

-4.40%

-$1.35

$32.28

-9.08%

$49.85

-41.14%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$37.71

$38.63

-2.38%

-$0.92

$61.58

-38.76%

$52.16

-27.69%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.22

$29.52

-4.42%

-$1.30

$30.50

-7.48%

$41.71

-32.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.759

$1.805

-2.55%

-$0.05

$1.88

-6.68%

$3.36

-47.59%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.230

-$0.227

1.19%

$0.00

-$0.21

10.47%

-$0.36

-36.82%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.103

-$0.112

9.02%

$0.01

-$0.04

132.73%

-$0.07

50.95%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.196

-$1.165

-2.67%

-$0.03

-$1.05

13.55%

-$1.47

-18.72%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.005

-$0.017

72.41%

$0.01

$0.16

-103.04%

$1.13

-100.42%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.478

-$0.473

1.08%

-$0.01

-$0.61

-21.87%

-$0.95

-49.60%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.018

-$0.010

82.65%

-$0.01

$0.13

-114.12%

$0.11

-115.80%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.758

$0.778

-2.59%

-$0.02

$0.85

-10.82%

$0.77

-1.33%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.754

$0.783

-3.69%

-$0.03

$0.85

-11.53%

$0.74

2.12%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.182

$0.186

-2.02%

$0.00

$0.20

-8.20%

$0.24

-24.35%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.580

$1.563

1.09%

$0.02

$1.52

4.20%

$1.48

6.82%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.907

$0.916

-1.07%

-$0.01

$0.98

-7.75%

$0.83

8.62%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$5.860

$5.890

-0.51%

-$0.03

$5.90

-0.67%

$5.20

12.70%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$5.978

$6.073

-1.56%

-$0.09

$5.86

1.98%

$5.21

14.73%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$77.53

$77.50

0.04%

$0.03

$76.61

1.20%

$71.05

9.12%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$82.21

$82.08

0.16%

$0.13

$81.61

0.74%

$76.15

7.96%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$11.85

-$14.23

-20.08%

$2.38

-$15.18

-21.96%

-$14.95

-20.73%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$79.59

$79.32

0.34%

$0.27

$78.75

1.07%

$72.35

10.01%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$76.77

$76.62

0.20%

$0.15

$75.99

1.03%

$69.69

10.16%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$77.85

$77.96

-0.14%

-$0.11

$77.32

0.68%

$69.23

12.44%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$80.21

$80.08

0.16%

$0.13

$79.61

0.75%

$73.86

8.59%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.66

$2.64

0.83%

$0.02

$2.85

-6.73%

$2.58

3.18%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.55

$2.53

0.63%

$0.02

$2.56

-0.43%

$2.32

9.89%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.44

$2.43

0.66%

$0.02

$2.46

-0.45%

$2.22

10.33%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.56

$2.49

2.85%

$0.07

$2.71

-5.50%

$2.28

12.44%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.63

$1.63

-0.31%

$0.00

$1.63

-0.61%

$1.68

-3.10%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$756.60

$756.16

0.06%

$0.44

$784.36

-3.54%

$667.87

13.29%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$100.39

$101.00

-0.60%

-$0.61

$105.04

-4.43%

$95.80

4.79%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

60.92%

60.56%

0.59%

0.36%

61.40%

-0.78%

53.54%

13.78%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

64.57%

66.41%

-2.77%

-1.84%

53.02%

21.78%

53.02%

21.78%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

147.46%

141.47%

4.23%

5.99%

107.23%

37.52%

88.24%

67.11%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

60.63%

61.64%

-1.64%

-1.01%

60.29%

0.56%

53.90%

12.49%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

54.53%

57.02%

-4.37%

-2.49%

38.93%

40.07%

48.04%

13.51%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

48.11%

68.36%

-29.62%

-20.25%

36.44%

32.03%

29.93%

60.74%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

104.06%

40.15%

159.18%

63.91%

288.89%

-63.98%

66.14%

57.33%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 24.75

EUR 26.58

-6.90%

-EUR 1.83

EUR 27.00

-8.33%

EUR 53.42

-53.67%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 62.04

GBP 66.40

-6.57%

-GBP 4.36

GBP 65.76

-5.66%

GBP 140.19

-55.75%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 54.34

EUR 58.70

-7.43%

-EUR 4.36

EUR 58.72

-7.46%

EUR 151.86

-64.22%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 56.80

GBP 60.56

-6.21%

-GBP 3.76

GBP 61.08

-7.00%

GBP 131.46

-56.79%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 47.63

EUR 52.51

-9.30%

-EUR 4.88

EUR 55.13

-13.61%

EUR 145.89

-67.36%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 75.55

EUR 82.88

-8.84%

-EUR 7.33

EUR 84.37

-10.45%

EUR 161.77

-53.30%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.08

$8.65

-6.63%

-$0.57

$9.00

-10.17%

$15.62

-48.25%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/11/24

3/8/24

% Change

Change

2/9/24

% Change

3/13/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$24.75

$26.58

-6.90%

-$1.83

$27.00

-8.33%

$53.42

-53.67%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$62.04

$66.40

-6.57%

-$4.36

$65.76

-5.66%

$140.19

-55.75%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$54.34

$58.70

-7.43%

-$4.36

$58.72

-7.46%

$151.86

-64.22%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$56.80

$60.56

-6.21%

-$3.76

$61.08

-7.00%

$131.46

-56.79%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$47.63

$52.51

-9.30%

-$4.88

$55.13

-13.61%

$145.89

-67.36%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$75.55

$82.88

-8.84%

-$7.33

$84.37

-10.45%

$161.77

-53.30%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.08

$8.65

-6.63%

-$0.57

$9.00

-10.17%

$15.62

-48.25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

3

-7

47

-31

-58

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-3

-2

2

-14

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

18

9

1

40

-2

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-4

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

1

-1

13

-9

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

161

-68

-44

4,415

-684

50

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

149

-61

-39

4,087

-549

81

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

131

-90

-52

4,302

-853

-238

-17.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-56

-38

4,531

-952

-678

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-53

-16

2,075

-304

75

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

48

-73

-16

2,624

-405

124

-13.00%

5.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-39

0

1,832

-188

45

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

179

22

-17

3,758

-303

-523

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

126

26

-30

2,245

-155

-413

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

108

-44

-29

3,147

-462

-142

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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