Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-13-2024

Mar 13, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:34 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.679

$1.714

-2.04%

-$0.035

69,949

 

 

WTI

$79.32

$77.56

2.27%

$1.76

149,841

 

 

Brent

$83.51

$81.92

1.94%

$1.59

16,675

 

 

ULSD

$2.684

$2.616

2.57%

$0.067

18,292

 

 

RBOB

$2.641

$2.586

2.11%

$0.055

18,015

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.65

$4.67

-0.43%

-$0.02

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.93

$31.11

2.63%

$0.82

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$28.54

$27.47

3.92%

$1.08

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/08/24

622

-7

-124

03/11/23

 

 

Canada

03/08/24

225

-6

2

03/11/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,063

87,681

87,758

-77

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

76,567

76,285

76,415

-130

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

378,896

356,554

367,810

-11,256

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

448,180

381,680

332,108

49,572

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

105,898

97,936

98,217

-281

 

 

NYM Ethanol

49,422

48,669

49,051

-382

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

148,146

147,137

147,947

-810

 

 

RBOB

369,388

346,078

354,541

-8,463

 

 

HSC Basis

777,873

766,100

769,391

-3,291

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

3/1/24

2/23/24

Net Change

% Change

3/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

422

453

-31

-6.84%

416

1.44%

364

15.93%

 

 

Midwest

575

600

-25

-4.17%

515

11.65%

437

31.52%

 

 

Mountain

169

169

0

0.00%

92

83.70%

94

80.56%

 

 

Pacific

219

217

2

0.92%

81

170.37%

152

44.08%

 

 

South

949

935

14

1.50%

925

2.59%

708

34.04%

 

 

    Salt

285

275

10

3.64%

261

9.20%

201

42.07%

 

 

    Non_Salt

664

660

4

0.61%

664

0.00%

507

30.86%

 

 

Total

2,334

2,374

-40

-1.68%

2,030

14.98%

1,755

32.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.14

$31.13

3.22%

$1.00

$31.09

3.36%

$43.47

-26.08%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.08

$33.53

-4.32%

-$1.45

$32.50

-1.28%

$35.50

-9.63%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$19.00

$19.00

0.00%

$0.00

$28.37

-33.03%

$36.18

-47.49%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$33.35

$32.52

2.55%

$0.83

$32.66

2.13%

$46.70

-28.59%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$29.28

$29.34

-0.21%

-$0.06

$29.39

-0.35%

$50.72

-42.27%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$39.37

$37.71

4.40%

$1.66

$61.75

-36.24%

$55.94

-29.61%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.60

$28.22

1.35%

$0.38

$27.54

3.85%

$42.53

-32.74%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.714

$1.759

-2.56%

-$0.04

$1.80

-4.78%

$3.33

-48.51%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.233

-$0.230

1.30%

$0.00

-$0.22

4.86%

-$0.36

-35.61%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.117

-$0.103

-12.26%

-$0.01

-$0.05

123.81%

-$0.06

88.30%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.250

-$1.196

-4.53%

-$0.05

-$1.00

24.44%

-$1.45

-14.00%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

$0.004

-$0.005

183.33%

$0.01

$0.13

-96.91%

$1.14

-99.65%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.524

-$0.478

9.62%

-$0.05

-$0.64

-18.17%

-$0.96

-45.14%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.014

-$0.018

-21.79%

$0.00

$0.17

-108.26%

$0.11

-112.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.755

$0.758

-0.37%

$0.00

$0.87

-12.94%

$0.74

2.26%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.760

$0.754

0.79%

$0.01

$0.86

-12.10%

$0.73

3.47%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.186

$0.182

2.08%

$0.00

$0.19

-3.24%

$0.24

-21.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.581

$1.580

0.09%

$0.00

$1.52

3.71%

$1.46

8.62%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.895

$0.907

-1.25%

-$0.01

$1.00

-10.28%

$0.83

8.06%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$5.929

$5.860

1.17%

$0.07

$5.93

-0.02%

$5.23

13.39%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.000

$5.978

0.36%

$0.02

$5.92

1.43%

$5.07

18.24%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$77.25

$77.53

-0.36%

-$0.28

$76.65

0.78%

$68.58

12.64%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$81.92

$82.21

-0.35%

-$0.29

$81.51

0.50%

$73.60

11.30%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$13.00

-$11.85

8.87%

-$1.15

-$14.90

-12.72%

-$15.30

-15.00%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$79.82

$79.59

0.29%

$0.23

$78.79

1.30%

$69.32

15.15%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$76.70

$76.77

-0.10%

-$0.07

$76.64

0.08%

$66.45

15.42%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$77.73

$77.85

-0.15%

-$0.12

$76.94

1.02%

$65.17

19.27%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$79.92

$80.21

-0.36%

-$0.29

$79.51

0.52%

$69.89

14.35%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.62

$2.66

-1.50%

-$0.04

$2.85

-8.07%

$2.54

3.23%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.59

$2.55

1.77%

$0.04

$2.59

-0.08%

$2.30

12.66%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.49

$2.44

1.84%

$0.05

$2.49

-0.08%

$2.20

13.23%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.56

$2.56

0.12%

$0.00

$2.67

-4.01%

$2.12

21.09%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.64

$1.63

0.92%

$0.01

$1.63

0.61%

$1.73

-5.15%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$757.00

$756.60

0.05%

$0.39

$788.65

-4.01%

$682.75

10.87%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$101.84

$100.39

1.44%

$1.44

$103.64

-1.74%

$93.40

9.03%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

61.35%

60.92%

0.71%

0.43%

60.74%

1.00%

56.96%

7.71%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

65.47%

64.57%

1.39%

0.90%

54.61%

19.89%

55.58%

17.79%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

163.31%

147.46%

10.75%

15.85%

100.55%

62.42%

94.35%

73.09%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

62.85%

60.63%

3.66%

2.22%

60.80%

3.37%

57.30%

9.69%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

55.20%

54.53%

1.23%

0.67%

37.45%

47.40%

47.82%

15.43%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

171.09%

48.11%

255.62%

122.98%

46.45%

268.33%

29.88%

472.59%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

183.52%

104.06%

76.36%

79.46%

300.90%

-39.01%

64.90%

182.77%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 24.90

EUR 24.75

0.61%

EUR 0.15

EUR 26.05

-4.43%

EUR 49.63

-49.83%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 62.80

GBP 62.04

1.22%

GBP 0.76

GBP 63.02

-0.35%

GBP 132.50

-52.61%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 54.96

EUR 54.34

1.15%

EUR 0.63

EUR 56.61

-2.92%

EUR 145.28

-62.17%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 58.90

GBP 56.80

3.71%

GBP 2.10

GBP 59.58

-1.13%

GBP 126.62

-53.48%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 47.12

EUR 47.63

-1.07%

-EUR 0.51

EUR 52.31

-9.93%

EUR 137.36

-65.70%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 77.45

EUR 75.55

2.52%

EUR 1.90

EUR 80.96

-4.33%

EUR 151.03

-48.72%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.47

$8.08

4.86%

$0.39

$8.85

-4.21%

$16.42

-48.40%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/12/24

3/11/24

% Change

Change

2/12/24

% Change

3/14/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$24.90

$24.75

0.61%

$0.15

$26.05

-4.43%

$49.63

-49.83%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$62.80

$62.04

1.22%

$0.76

$63.02

-0.35%

$132.50

-52.61%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$54.96

$54.34

1.15%

$0.63

$56.61

-2.92%

$145.28

-62.17%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$58.90

$56.80

3.71%

$2.10

$59.58

-1.13%

$126.62

-53.48%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$47.12

$47.63

-1.07%

-$0.51

$52.31

-9.93%

$137.36

-65.70%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$77.45

$75.55

2.52%

$1.90

$80.96

-4.33%

$151.03

-48.72%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.47

$8.08

4.86%

$0.39

$8.85

-4.21%

$16.42

-48.40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

3

-7

47

-31

-58

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-3

-2

2

-14

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

18

9

1

40

-2

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-4

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

1

-1

13

-9

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

161

-68

-44

4,415

-684

50

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

149

-61

-39

4,087

-549

81

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

131

-90

-52

4,302

-853

-238

-17.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-56

-38

4,531

-952

-678

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-53

-16

2,075

-304

75

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

48

-73

-16

2,624

-405

124

-13.00%

5.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-39

0

1,832

-188

45

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

179

22

-17

3,758

-303

-523

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

126

26

-30

2,245

-155

-413

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

108

-44

-29

3,147

-462

-142

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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