Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-14-2024

Mar 14, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:27 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.648

$1.658

-0.60%

-$0.010

30,521

 

 

WTI

$80.67

$79.72

1.19%

$0.95

87,771

 

 

Brent

$84.81

$84.03

0.93%

$0.78

10,924

 

 

ULSD

$2.699

$2.685

0.50%

$0.013

8,118

 

 

RBOB

$2.676

$2.661

0.55%

$0.015

5,900

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.65

$4.73

-1.69%

-$0.08

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.96

$32.17

-0.65%

-$0.21

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$27.89

$28.59

-2.45%

-$0.70

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/08/24

622

-7

-124

03/11/23

 

 

Canada

03/08/24

225

-6

2

03/11/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,063

87,681

87,758

-77

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

76,567

76,285

76,415

-130

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

378,896

356,554

367,810

-11,256

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

448,180

381,680

332,108

49,572

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

105,898

97,936

98,217

-281

 

 

NYM Ethanol

49,422

48,669

49,051

-382

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

148,146

147,137

147,947

-810

 

 

RBOB

369,388

346,078

354,541

-8,463

 

 

HSC Basis

777,873

766,100

769,391

-3,291

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/01/19

 

 

 

3/1/24

2/23/24

Net Change

% Change

3/3/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

422

453

-31

-6.84%

416

1.44%

364

15.93%

 

 

Midwest

575

600

-25

-4.17%

515

11.65%

437

31.52%

 

 

Mountain

169

169

0

0.00%

92

83.70%

94

80.56%

 

 

Pacific

219

217

2

0.92%

81

170.37%

152

44.08%

 

 

South

949

935

14

1.50%

925

2.59%

708

34.04%

 

 

    Salt

285

275

10

3.64%

261

9.20%

201

42.07%

 

 

    Non_Salt

664

660

4

0.61%

664

0.00%

507

30.86%

 

 

Total

2,334

2,374

-40

-1.68%

2,030

14.98%

1,755

32.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$31.42

$32.14

-2.25%

-$0.72

$30.72

2.25%

$42.47

-26.03%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$31.06

$32.08

-3.18%

-$1.02

$30.64

1.36%

$34.36

-9.61%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$18.64

$19.00

-1.90%

-$0.36

$28.51

-34.62%

$38.04

-51.00%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$32.28

$33.35

-3.23%

-$1.08

$32.24

0.10%

$45.52

-29.10%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$27.98

$29.28

-4.46%

-$1.31

$31.16

-10.21%

$49.74

-43.75%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$37.05

$39.37

-5.90%

-$2.32

$58.50

-36.67%

$52.60

-29.56%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$27.59

$28.60

-3.54%

-$1.01

$26.94

2.41%

$41.72

-33.87%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.658

$1.714

-3.27%

-$0.06

$1.74

-4.82%

$3.19

-48.11%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.214

-$0.233

-8.24%

$0.02

-$0.24

-10.58%

-$0.36

-40.42%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.087

-$0.117

34.29%

$0.03

-$0.04

126.10%

-$0.07

27.74%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.306

-$1.250

-4.47%

-$0.06

-$0.94

38.40%

-$1.36

-3.90%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

$0.012

$0.004

200.00%

$0.01

$0.09

-86.65%

$1.14

-98.95%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.384

-$0.524

-26.78%

$0.14

-$0.56

-31.68%

-$0.95

-59.41%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.070

-$0.014

402.86%

-$0.06

$0.09

-176.27%

$0.06

-224.16%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.774

$0.755

2.45%

$0.02

$0.87

-11.39%

$0.68

13.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.774

$0.760

1.79%

$0.01

$0.88

-12.43%

$0.66

17.92%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.180

$0.186

-3.37%

-$0.01

$0.19

-5.89%

$0.25

-27.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.627

$1.581

2.89%

$0.05

$1.55

4.73%

$1.46

11.70%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.904

$0.895

1.02%

$0.01

$1.00

-9.13%

$0.83

8.92%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.032

$5.929

1.74%

$0.10

$5.98

0.88%

$5.11

18.14%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.055

$6.000

0.93%

$0.06

$5.93

2.13%

$4.88

24.01%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$79.30

$77.25

2.59%

$2.05

$77.24

2.67%

$65.60

20.88%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$84.03

$81.92

2.51%

$2.11

$82.07

2.39%

$70.75

18.77%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$11.44

-$13.00

-13.60%

$1.56

-$15.10

-24.19%

-$15.11

-24.24%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$81.45

$79.82

2.00%

$1.63

$79.22

2.81%

$70.73

15.16%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$78.58

$76.70

2.39%

$1.88

$76.81

2.30%

$64.13

22.54%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$78.96

$77.73

1.56%

$1.23

$78.00

1.23%

$62.84

25.64%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$82.03

$79.92

2.57%

$2.11

$80.07

2.45%

$67.47

21.57%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.69

$2.62

2.56%

$0.07

$2.83

-5.19%

$2.38

13.14%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.64

$2.59

2.08%

$0.05

$2.59

2.01%

$2.21

19.42%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.54

$2.49

2.17%

$0.05

$2.49

2.09%

$2.11

20.34%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.55

$2.56

-0.59%

-$0.02

$2.62

-2.71%

$2.20

15.89%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.69

$1.64

3.05%

$0.05

$1.61

4.97%

$1.75

-3.70%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$771.80

$757.00

1.96%

$14.80

$797.36

-3.21%

$673.39

14.61%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$100.54

$101.84

-1.28%

-$1.30

$105.51

-4.71%

$87.58

14.79%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Apr-24

64.55%

61.35%

5.22%

3.20%

66.38%

-2.76%

59.58%

8.34%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Apr-24

68.45%

65.47%

4.55%

2.98%

59.85%

14.37%

52.35%

30.75%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Apr-24

198.64%

163.31%

21.63%

35.33%

101.51%

95.69%

90.83%

118.69%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Apr-24

65.35%

62.85%

3.98%

2.50%

65.64%

-0.44%

61.90%

5.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Apr-24

52.44%

55.20%

-5.00%

-2.76%

40.36%

29.93%

47.80%

9.71%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Apr-24

86.17%

171.09%

-49.63%

-84.92%

43.40%

98.55%

29.22%

194.90%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Apr-24

51.11%

183.52%

-72.15%

-132.41%

293.95%

-82.61%

62.12%

-17.72%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Apr-24

EUR 24.63

EUR 24.90

-1.09%

-EUR 0.27

EUR 25.65

-3.97%

EUR 49.00

-49.74%

 

 

NBP

Apr-24

GBP 61.51

GBP 62.80

-2.05%

-GBP 1.29

GBP 61.85

-0.56%

GBP 127.00

-51.57%

 

 

German Base

Apr-24

EUR 53.88

EUR 54.96

-1.98%

-EUR 1.09

EUR 55.63

-3.16%

EUR 133.28

-59.58%

 

 

UK Base

Apr-24

GBP 58.05

GBP 58.90

-1.45%

-GBP 0.86

GBP 56.44

2.84%

GBP 118.50

-51.01%

 

 

French Base

Apr-24

EUR 46.79

EUR 47.12

-0.69%

-EUR 0.33

EUR 52.62

-11.07%

EUR 128.76

-63.66%

 

 

Italian Base

Apr-24

EUR 78.92

EUR 77.45

1.90%

EUR 1.47

EUR 78.80

0.15%

EUR 142.79

-44.73%

 

 

JKM LNG

Apr-24

$8.46

$8.47

-0.17%

-$0.01

$8.65

-2.17%

$12.33

-31.41%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/13/24

3/12/24

% Change

Change

2/13/24

% Change

3/15/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Apr-24

$24.63

$24.90

-1.09%

-$0.27

$25.65

-3.97%

$49.00

-49.74%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Apr-24

$61.51

$62.80

-2.05%

-$1.29

$61.85

-0.56%

$127.00

-51.57%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Apr-24

$53.88

$54.96

-1.98%

-$1.09

$55.63

-3.16%

$133.28

-59.58%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Apr-24

$58.05

$58.90

-1.45%

-$0.86

$56.44

2.84%

$118.50

-51.01%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Apr-24

$46.79

$47.12

-0.69%

-$0.33

$52.62

-11.07%

$128.76

-63.66%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$78.92

$77.45

1.90%

$1.47

$78.80

0.15%

$142.79

-44.73%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Apr-24

$8.46

$8.47

-0.17%

-$0.01

$8.65

-2.17%

$12.33

-31.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

3

-7

47

-31

-58

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-3

-2

2

-14

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

18

9

1

40

-2

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-4

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

1

-1

13

-9

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

161

-68

-44

4,415

-684

50

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

149

-61

-39

4,087

-549

81

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

131

-90

-52

4,302

-853

-238

-17.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-56

-38

4,531

-952

-678

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-53

-16

2,075

-304

75

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

48

-73

-16

2,624

-405

124

-13.00%

5.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-39

0

1,832

-188

45

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

179

22

-17

3,758

-303

-523

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

126

26

-30

2,245

-155

-413

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

108

-44

-29

3,147

-462

-142

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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