Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-15-2024

Mar 15, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:42 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.724

$1.741

-0.98%

-$0.017

32,649

 

 

WTI

$80.79

$81.26

-0.58%

-$0.47

62,997

 

 

Brent

$84.92

$85.42

-0.59%

-$0.50

7,743

 

 

ULSD

$2.693

$2.709

-0.57%

-$0.016

7,079

 

 

RBOB

$2.690

$2.703

-0.48%

-$0.013

7,826

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.64

$4.68

-0.85%

-$0.04

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.02

$32.25

-0.71%

-$0.23

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$29.27

$27.69

5.72%

$1.58

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/08/24

622

-7

-124

03/11/23

 

 

Canada

03/08/24

225

-6

2

03/11/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,063

87,681

87,758

-77

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

76,567

76,285

76,415

-130

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

378,896

356,554

367,810

-11,256

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

448,180

381,680

332,108

49,572

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

105,898

97,936

98,217

-281

 

 

NYM Ethanol

49,422

48,669

49,051

-382

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

148,146

147,137

147,947

-810

 

 

RBOB

369,388

346,078

354,541

-8,463

 

 

HSC Basis

777,873

766,100

769,391

-3,291

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/08/19

 

 

 

3/8/24

3/1/24

Net Change

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

412

422

-10

-2.37%

391

5.37%

337

22.40%

 

 

Midwest

561

575

-14

-2.43%

490

14.49%

410

36.70%

 

 

Mountain

167

169

-2

-1.18%

87

91.95%

90

85.56%

 

 

Pacific

213

219

-6

-2.74%

72

195.83%

145

46.49%

 

 

South

972

949

23

2.42%

933

4.18%

700

38.78%

 

 

    Salt

294

285

9

3.16%

266

10.53%

200

47.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

678

664

14

2.11%

667

1.65%

501

35.28%

 

 

Total

2,325

2,334

-9

-0.39%

1,972

17.90%

1,683

38.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.95

$31.42

4.90%

$1.54

$30.90

6.66%

$43.10

-23.53%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.89

$31.06

5.89%

$1.83

$30.30

8.56%

$33.74

-2.52%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$18.30

$18.64

-1.82%

-$0.34

$27.34

-33.07%

$39.41

-53.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$33.57

$32.28

4.00%

$1.29

$32.53

3.18%

$46.22

-27.38%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$28.96

$27.98

3.52%

$0.99

$30.90

-6.26%

$49.97

-42.05%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$37.05

$37.05

0.00%

$0.00

$58.78

-36.97%

$54.41

-31.90%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.93

$27.59

4.86%

$1.34

$26.77

8.05%

$41.76

-30.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.741

$1.658

5.01%

$0.08

$1.66

4.56%

$3.24

-46.33%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.206

-$0.214

-3.51%

$0.01

-$0.22

-7.77%

-$0.35

-40.77%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.083

-$0.087

5.55%

$0.00

-$0.03

139.60%

-$0.07

19.97%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.311

-$1.306

-0.40%

-$0.01

-$0.84

56.14%

-$1.36

-3.86%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.035

$0.012

-395.00%

-$0.05

$0.10

-134.17%

$1.16

-103.04%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.438

-$0.384

14.12%

-$0.05

-$0.45

-2.47%

-$0.92

-52.39%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

$0.015

-$0.070

-121.73%

$0.09

$0.12

-87.39%

$0.05

-71.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.784

$0.774

1.31%

$0.01

$0.88

-11.29%

$0.69

14.29%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.784

$0.774

1.30%

$0.01

$0.88

-11.44%

$0.66

17.90%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.181

$0.180

0.71%

$0.00

$0.18

-1.36%

$0.24

-25.14%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.647

$1.627

1.25%

$0.02

$1.55

6.09%

$1.32

24.56%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.904

$0.904

-0.07%

$0.00

$1.01

-10.45%

$0.75

19.98%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.050

$6.032

0.29%

$0.02

$6.03

0.34%

$4.96

21.90%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.051

$6.055

-0.07%

$0.00

$5.95

1.70%

$4.74

27.64%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$80.74

$79.30

1.78%

$1.44

$76.11

6.08%

$66.40

21.60%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$85.42

$84.03

1.63%

$1.39

$80.99

5.47%

$71.62

19.27%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$13.98

-$11.44

18.16%

-$2.54

-$15.13

-7.59%

-$16.49

-15.17%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$82.43

$81.45

1.18%

$0.98

$77.93

5.77%

$66.71

23.55%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$79.64

$78.58

1.33%

$1.06

$75.76

5.11%

$62.75

26.91%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$80.91

$78.96

2.41%

$1.95

$76.51

5.75%

$64.14

26.15%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$83.42

$82.03

1.67%

$1.39

$78.99

5.61%

$68.56

21.67%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.70

$2.69

0.63%

$0.02

$2.75

-1.64%

$2.34

15.41%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.69

$2.64

1.93%

$0.05

$2.55

5.64%

$2.18

23.85%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.60

$2.54

2.00%

$0.05

$2.45

5.88%

$2.08

25.00%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.56

$2.55

0.47%

$0.01

$2.57

-0.62%

$2.02

26.70%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.69

$1.69

0.00%

$0.00

$1.57

7.99%

$1.78

-5.27%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$780.12

$771.80

1.08%

$8.33

$789.34

-1.17%

$640.84

21.73%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$103.38

$100.54

2.82%

$2.84

$105.03

-1.58%

$89.56

15.43%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

60.92%

61.81%

-1.44%

-0.89%

63.74%

-4.42%

50.96%

19.54%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

72.84%

74.13%

-1.74%

-1.29%

59.52%

22.38%

54.99%

32.46%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

150.33%

147.22%

2.11%

3.11%

108.22%

38.91%

74.71%

101.22%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

64.76%

64.53%

0.36%

0.23%

64.69%

0.11%

52.48%

23.40%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

47.04%

46.06%

2.13%

0.98%

43.64%

7.79%

46.63%

0.88%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

132.55%

139.81%

-5.19%

-7.26%

69.25%

91.41%

27.16%

388.03%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

93.93%

86.46%

8.64%

7.47%

240.36%

-60.92%

69.20%

35.74%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 26.42

EUR 24.72

6.89%

EUR 1.70

EUR 25.47

3.76%

EUR 47.20

-44.02%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 65.36

GBP 61.23

6.75%

GBP 4.13

GBP 61.52

6.25%

GBP 126.18

-48.20%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 52.30

EUR 50.16

4.27%

EUR 2.14

EUR 52.01

0.56%

EUR 111.37

-53.04%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 59.70

GBP 57.09

4.58%

GBP 2.62

GBP 55.06

8.42%

GBP 122.61

-51.31%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 43.44

EUR 42.61

1.93%

EUR 0.82

EUR 46.77

-7.13%

EUR 104.58

-58.47%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 78.77

EUR 75.69

4.06%

EUR 3.07

EUR 76.00

3.64%

EUR 122.84

-35.88%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$8.58

$8.46

1.39%

$0.12

$8.60

-0.24%

$14.00

-38.75%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/14/24

3/13/24

% Change

Change

2/14/24

% Change

3/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$26.42

$24.72

6.89%

$1.70

$25.47

3.76%

$47.20

-44.02%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$65.36

$61.23

6.75%

$4.13

$61.52

6.25%

$126.18

-48.20%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$52.30

$50.16

4.27%

$2.14

$52.01

0.56%

$111.37

-53.04%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$59.70

$57.09

4.58%

$2.62

$55.06

8.42%

$122.61

-51.31%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$43.44

$42.61

1.93%

$0.82

$46.77

-7.13%

$104.58

-58.47%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$78.77

$75.69

4.06%

$3.07

$76.00

3.64%

$122.84

-35.88%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$8.58

$8.46

1.39%

$0.12

$8.60

-0.24%

$14.00

-38.75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

13

3

-7

47

-31

-58

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-3

-2

2

-14

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

18

9

1

40

-2

-36

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-6

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-4

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

1

-1

13

-9

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

161

-68

-44

4,415

-684

50

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

149

-61

-39

4,087

-549

81

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

131

-90

-52

4,302

-853

-238

-17.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-56

-38

4,531

-952

-678

-17.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-53

-16

2,075

-304

75

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

48

-73

-16

2,624

-405

124

-13.00%

5.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-39

0

1,832

-188

45

-9.00%

3.00%

 

 

Mountain

179

22

-17

3,758

-303

-523

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

126

26

-30

2,245

-155

-413

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

108

-44

-29

3,147

-462

-142

-13.00%

-4.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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