Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-18-2024

Mar 18, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:06 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.732

$1.655

4.65%

$0.077

56,400

 

 

WTI

$81.54

$81.04

0.62%

$0.50

20,118

 

 

Brent

$85.79

$85.34

0.53%

$0.45

12,172

 

 

ULSD

$2.758

$2.727

1.14%

$0.031

9,631

 

 

RBOB

$2.751

$2.721

1.12%

$0.030

5,698

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.68

$4.76

-1.68%

-$0.08

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$33.69

$32.95

2.23%

$0.73

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$28.80

$29.41

-2.09%

-$0.61

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/15/24

629

7

-125

03/18/23

 

 

Canada

03/15/24

207

-18

0

03/18/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/12/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,085

90,642

90,642

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,238

78,895

78,982

-87

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

380,458

358,116

368,376

-10,260

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

307,461

262,005

230,289

31,716

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

109,955

100,537

100,240

297

 

 

NYM Ethanol

48,564

47,770

48,227

-457

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,268

149,192

149,949

-757

 

 

RBOB

379,544

352,260

364,346

-12,086

 

 

HSC Basis

791,538

780,281

781,443

-1,162

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/08/19

 

 

 

3/8/24

3/1/24

Net Change

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

412

422

-10

-2.37%

391

5.37%

337

22.40%

 

 

Midwest

561

575

-14

-2.43%

490

14.49%

410

36.70%

 

 

Mountain

167

169

-2

-1.18%

87

91.95%

90

85.56%

 

 

Pacific

213

219

-6

-2.74%

72

195.83%

145

46.49%

 

 

South

972

949

23

2.42%

933

4.18%

700

38.78%

 

 

    Salt

294

285

9

3.16%

266

10.53%

200

47.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

678

664

14

2.11%

667

1.65%

501

35.28%

 

 

Total

2,325

2,334

-9

-0.39%

1,972

17.90%

1,683

38.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.50

$32.95

-1.39%

-$0.46

$31.53

3.08%

$43.04

-24.50%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.06

$32.89

-2.51%

-$0.83

$30.03

6.75%

$33.73

-4.94%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$19.01

$18.30

3.88%

$0.71

$27.50

-30.88%

$41.04

-53.68%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$32.84

$33.57

-2.18%

-$0.73

$33.30

-1.39%

$46.34

-29.13%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$28.74

$28.96

-0.78%

-$0.23

$29.66

-3.11%

$50.62

-43.23%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$36.04

$37.05

-2.71%

-$1.01

$53.58

-32.73%

$61.14

-41.04%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.66

$28.93

-0.94%

-$0.27

$27.34

4.82%

$42.50

-32.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.655

$1.741

-4.94%

-$0.09

$1.65

0.49%

$3.15

-47.51%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.198

-$0.206

-3.88%

$0.01

-$0.26

-23.34%

-$0.35

-43.78%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.110

-$0.083

-24.91%

-$0.03

-$0.04

169.27%

-$0.07

54.84%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.330

-$1.311

-1.46%

-$0.02

-$0.85

56.44%

-$1.34

-0.62%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.043

-$0.035

-20.06%

-$0.01

$0.11

-138.71%

$1.16

-103.66%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.456

-$0.438

4.13%

-$0.02

-$0.49

-6.44%

-$0.88

-48.33%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

$0.000

$0.015

-101.96%

-$0.02

$0.21

-100.14%

$0.09

-100.35%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.797

$0.784

1.75%

$0.01

$0.87

-8.37%

$0.69

14.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.797

$0.784

1.75%

$0.01

$0.88

-9.75%

$0.70

14.56%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.180

$0.181

-0.69%

$0.00

$0.18

-0.12%

$0.24

-25.65%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.635

$1.647

-0.74%

-$0.01

$1.53

6.53%

$1.38

18.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.921

$0.904

1.85%

$0.02

$0.98

-6.44%

$0.78

18.33%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.094

$6.050

0.73%

$0.04

$6.02

1.23%

$5.06

20.41%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.041

$6.051

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.88

2.77%

$4.83

24.99%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$80.58

$80.74

-0.20%

-$0.16

$77.22

4.35%

$65.44

23.14%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$85.34

$85.42

-0.09%

-$0.08

$82.16

3.87%

$70.67

20.76%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$13.55

-$13.98

-3.25%

$0.44

-$15.49

-12.58%

-$16.49

-17.83%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$82.38

$82.43

-0.05%

-$0.04

$79.38

3.78%

$66.68

23.55%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$79.64

$79.64

0.01%

$0.01

$77.10

3.30%

$63.23

25.95%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$80.92

$80.91

0.01%

$0.01

$77.91

3.86%

$63.28

27.86%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$83.34

$83.42

-0.10%

-$0.08

$80.16

3.97%

$67.54

23.39%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.72

$2.70

0.52%

$0.01

$2.76

-1.56%

$2.42

12.41%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.69

$2.69

-0.07%

$0.00

$2.56

5.15%

$2.19

22.97%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.59

$2.60

-0.08%

$0.00

$2.46

5.36%

$2.09

24.07%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.59

$2.56

1.25%

$0.03

$2.58

0.43%

$2.21

17.41%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.70

$1.69

0.59%

$0.01

$1.52

11.48%

$1.71

-0.64%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$787.44

$780.12

0.94%

$7.32

$765.38

2.88%

$663.86

18.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$103.20

$103.38

-0.17%

-$0.17

$103.92

-0.69%

$91.38

12.93%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

68.16%

60.92%

11.88%

7.24%

62.88%

8.40%

56.52%

20.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

78.84%

72.84%

8.24%

6.00%

66.31%

18.90%

62.07%

27.02%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

156.70%

150.33%

4.24%

6.37%

118.76%

31.95%

78.95%

98.48%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

72.46%

64.76%

11.89%

7.70%

64.33%

12.64%

57.97%

25.00%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

47.33%

47.04%

0.62%

0.29%

44.23%

7.01%

45.59%

3.82%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

154.25%

132.55%

16.37%

21.70%

71.94%

114.41%

26.05%

492.13%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

66.90%

93.93%

-28.78%

-27.03%

224.38%

-70.18%

67.81%

-1.34%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 27.30

EUR 26.42

3.33%

EUR 0.88

EUR 25.40

7.48%

EUR 48.74

-43.99%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 67.76

GBP 65.36

3.66%

GBP 2.39

GBP 61.70

9.82%

GBP 123.53

-45.15%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 53.35

EUR 52.30

2.01%

EUR 1.05

EUR 53.24

0.20%

EUR 113.24

-52.89%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 58.54

GBP 59.70

-1.95%

-GBP 1.16

GBP 57.40

1.98%

GBP 115.11

-49.15%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 42.10

EUR 43.44

-3.08%

-EUR 1.34

EUR 46.25

-8.98%

EUR 108.58

-61.23%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 78.51

EUR 78.77

-0.32%

-EUR 0.25

EUR 75.52

3.96%

EUR 123.97

-36.67%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$8.68

$8.58

1.19%

$0.10

$8.60

0.94%

$12.24

-29.11%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/15/24

3/14/24

% Change

Change

2/15/24

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$27.30

$26.42

3.33%

$0.88

$25.40

7.48%

$48.74

-43.99%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$67.76

$65.36

3.66%

$2.39

$61.70

9.82%

$123.53

-45.15%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$53.35

$52.30

2.01%

$1.05

$53.24

0.20%

$113.24

-52.89%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$58.54

$59.70

-1.95%

-$1.16

$57.40

1.98%

$115.11

-49.15%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$42.10

$43.44

-3.08%

-$1.34

$46.25

-8.98%

$108.58

-61.23%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$78.51

$78.77

-0.32%

-$0.25

$75.52

3.96%

$123.97

-36.67%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$8.68

$8.58

1.19%

$0.10

$8.60

0.94%

$12.24

-29.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

11

0

1

58

-30

-56

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-4

0

2

-19

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

15

4

3

55

2

-30

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-7

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

0

1

17

-8

-15

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

164

-49

-38

4,579

-734

16

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

141

-53

-64

4,228

-603

26

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

132

-71

-92

4,434

-925

-328

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

126

-76

-106

4,657

-1,029

-792

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

55

-34

-55

2,130

-338

20

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

77

-31

-59

2,701

-436

61

-14.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

38

-26

-20

1,870

-214

15

-10.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

158

11

3

3,916

-293

-525

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

107

10

-7

2,352

-144

-415

-6.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

104

-36

-50

3,251

-498

-192

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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