Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-19-2024

Mar 19, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:12 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.752

$1.703

2.88%

$0.049

40,917

 

 

WTI

$82.89

$82.72

0.21%

$0.17

9,364

 

 

Brent

$87.07

$86.89

0.21%

$0.18

11,291

 

 

ULSD

$2.763

$2.788

-0.92%

-$0.026

6,359

 

 

RBOB

$2.757

$2.757

-0.01%

$0.000

3,356

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.77

$4.73

0.85%

$0.04

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.93

$33.37

-1.34%

-$0.45

Apr-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$29.75

$28.85

3.12%

$0.90

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/15/24

629

7

-125

03/18/23

 

 

Canada

03/15/24

207

-18

0

03/18/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/12/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,085

90,642

90,642

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,238

78,895

78,982

-87

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

380,458

358,116

368,376

-10,260

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

307,461

262,005

230,289

31,716

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

109,955

100,537

100,240

297

 

 

NYM Ethanol

48,564

47,770

48,227

-457

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,268

149,192

149,949

-757

 

 

RBOB

379,544

352,260

364,346

-12,086

 

 

HSC Basis

791,538

780,281

781,443

-1,162

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/08/19

 

 

 

3/8/24

3/1/24

Net Change

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

412

422

-10

-2.37%

391

5.37%

337

22.40%

 

 

Midwest

561

575

-14

-2.43%

490

14.49%

410

36.70%

 

 

Mountain

167

169

-2

-1.18%

87

91.95%

90

85.56%

 

 

Pacific

213

219

-6

-2.74%

72

195.83%

145

46.49%

 

 

South

972

949

23

2.42%

933

4.18%

700

38.78%

 

 

    Salt

294

285

9

3.16%

266

10.53%

200

47.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

678

664

14

2.11%

667

1.65%

501

35.28%

 

 

Total

2,325

2,334

-9

-0.39%

1,972

17.90%

1,683

38.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$33.50

$32.50

3.08%

$1.00

$34.11

-1.80%

$42.16

-20.55%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.53

$32.06

1.45%

$0.47

$29.30

11.01%

$32.89

-1.10%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$20.63

$19.01

8.54%

$1.62

$27.13

-23.95%

$36.46

-43.41%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$33.92

$32.84

3.28%

$1.08

$35.82

-5.31%

$45.27

-25.08%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$29.26

$28.74

1.82%

$0.52

$29.67

-1.38%

$50.83

-42.44%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$39.08

$36.04

8.42%

$3.04

$54.80

-28.68%

$54.68

-28.52%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.17

$28.66

-1.71%

-$0.49

$29.80

-5.49%

$42.50

-33.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.703

$1.655

2.90%

$0.05

$1.68

1.37%

$3.10

-45.10%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.204

-$0.198

2.77%

-$0.01

-$0.26

-22.38%

-$0.37

-44.77%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.101

-$0.110

9.09%

$0.01

-$0.04

183.47%

-$0.07

46.45%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.390

-$1.330

-4.44%

-$0.06

-$0.82

69.39%

-$1.36

1.99%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.031

-$0.043

26.12%

$0.01

$0.06

-156.68%

$1.16

-102.71%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.393

-$0.456

-13.90%

$0.06

-$0.47

-16.23%

-$0.84

-53.34%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

$0.033

$0.000

-10966.67%

$0.03

$0.25

-86.73%

$0.16

-79.14%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.812

$0.797

1.88%

$0.01

$0.86

-5.87%

$0.69

17.44%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.801

$0.797

0.48%

$0.00

$0.86

-7.10%

$0.69

16.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.175

$0.180

-2.79%

-$0.01

$0.18

-0.15%

$0.23

-24.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.642

$1.635

0.45%

$0.01

$1.55

5.80%

$1.35

21.68%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.940

$0.921

2.14%

$0.02

$0.98

-4.21%

$0.77

21.68%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.070

$6.094

-0.39%

-$0.02

$6.00

1.17%

$4.98

21.83%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.109

$6.041

1.13%

$0.07

$5.89

3.70%

$4.70

29.87%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$82.16

$80.58

1.92%

$1.58

$77.98

5.36%

$66.10

24.30%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$86.89

$85.34

1.78%

$1.55

$82.74

5.02%

$71.44

21.63%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$12.10

-$13.55

-11.97%

$1.45

-$14.24

-15.08%

-$15.70

-22.95%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$84.09

$82.38

2.03%

$1.71

$79.92

5.22%

$67.95

23.75%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$81.39

$79.64

2.14%

$1.74

$77.50

5.01%

$63.91

27.34%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$82.27

$80.92

1.64%

$1.35

$78.00

5.47%

$63.91

28.73%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$84.89

$83.34

1.83%

$1.55

$80.74

5.14%

$68.04

24.77%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.79

$2.72

2.54%

$0.07

$2.75

1.20%

$2.40

15.98%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.78

$2.69

3.19%

$0.09

$2.58

7.92%

$2.20

26.26%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.68

$2.59

3.32%

$0.09

$2.47

8.24%

$2.10

27.51%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.64

$2.59

2.12%

$0.06

$2.62

0.80%

$2.07

28.09%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.65

$1.70

-2.65%

-$0.05

$1.51

9.31%

$1.72

-3.72%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$804.19

$787.44

2.13%

$16.75

$765.73

5.02%

$636.98

26.25%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$104.83

$103.20

1.57%

$1.62

$102.22

2.55%

$87.60

19.67%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

62.81%

68.16%

-7.85%

-5.35%

67.23%

-6.57%

50.17%

25.19%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

73.08%

78.84%

-7.31%

-5.76%

64.69%

12.97%

55.10%

32.63%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

148.20%

156.70%

-5.42%

-8.50%

121.82%

21.65%

72.37%

104.78%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

67.19%

72.46%

-7.27%

-5.27%

68.49%

-1.90%

51.58%

30.26%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

48.20%

47.33%

1.84%

0.87%

47.97%

0.48%

46.86%

2.86%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

133.51%

154.25%

-13.45%

-20.74%

72.49%

84.18%

26.04%

412.71%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

73.11%

66.90%

9.28%

6.21%

252.82%

-71.08%

67.88%

7.70%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 29.00

EUR 27.30

6.24%

EUR 1.70

EUR 25.11

15.51%

EUR 46.02

-36.97%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 72.07

GBP 67.76

6.36%

GBP 4.31

GBP 60.88

18.38%

GBP 120.00

-39.94%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 54.99

EUR 53.35

3.09%

EUR 1.65

EUR 52.26

5.23%

EUR 109.40

-49.73%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 65.70

GBP 58.54

12.23%

GBP 7.16

GBP 55.36

18.68%

GBP 112.31

-41.50%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 44.74

EUR 42.10

6.26%

EUR 2.64

EUR 45.44

-1.55%

EUR 105.31

-57.52%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 80.42

EUR 78.51

2.44%

EUR 1.91

EUR 74.25

8.31%

EUR 118.46

-32.11%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$9.13

$8.68

5.13%

$0.44

$8.50

7.37%

$11.69

-21.93%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/24

3/15/24

% Change

Change

2/16/24

% Change

3/20/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$29.00

$27.30

6.24%

$1.70

$25.11

15.51%

$46.02

-36.97%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$72.07

$67.76

6.36%

$4.31

$60.88

18.38%

$120.00

-39.94%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$54.99

$53.35

3.09%

$1.65

$52.26

5.23%

$109.40

-49.73%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$65.70

$58.54

12.23%

$7.16

$55.36

18.68%

$112.31

-41.50%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$44.74

$42.10

6.26%

$2.64

$45.44

-1.55%

$105.31

-57.52%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$80.42

$78.51

2.44%

$1.91

$74.25

8.31%

$118.46

-32.11%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$9.13

$8.68

5.13%

$0.44

$8.50

7.37%

$11.69

-21.93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

11

0

1

58

-30

-56

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-4

0

2

-19

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

15

4

3

55

2

-30

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-7

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

0

1

17

-8

-15

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

164

-49

-38

4,579

-734

16

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

141

-53

-64

4,228

-603

26

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

132

-71

-92

4,434

-925

-328

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

126

-76

-106

4,657

-1,029

-792

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

55

-34

-55

2,130

-338

20

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

77

-31

-59

2,701

-436

61

-14.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

38

-26

-20

1,870

-214

15

-10.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

158

11

3

3,916

-293

-525

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

107

10

-7

2,352

-144

-415

-6.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

104

-36

-50

3,251

-498

-192

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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