Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-19-2025

Mar 19, 2025

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:01 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$4.133

$4.052

2.00%

$0.081

27,212

 

 

WTI

$66.78

$66.90

-0.18%

-$0.12

5,971

 

 

Brent

$70.50

$70.56

-0.09%

-$0.06

8,685

 

 

ULSD

$2.208

$2.194

0.60%

$0.013

3,722

 

 

RBOB

$2.171

$2.168

0.12%

$0.002

2,959

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.83

$3.81

0.52%

$0.02

May-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.55

$24.25

1.22%

$0.30

Apr-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$47.10

$45.51

3.49%

$1.59

Apr-25

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/14/25

592

0

-37

03/15/24

 

 

Canada

03/14/25

199

-35

-8

03/15/24

 

 

International

Feb

905

0

-53

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/4/2025

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,186

96,197

93,852

2,345

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,041

86,234

85,882

352

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

341,807

330,340

328,761

1,579

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

302,255

251,777

232,423

19,354

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

154,608

149,920

148,170

1,750

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,020

35,025

35,617

-592

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

167,465

166,854

167,102

-248

 

 

RBOB

420,594

400,852

399,526

1,326

 

 

HSC Basis

987,978

966,036

978,755

-12,719

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Brent

$82.00

$81.00

$74.00

$66.00

 

 

Gasoline

$3.50

$3.30

$3.20

$3.00

 

 

Crude Oil Production

$12.90

$13.20

$13.50

$13.60

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

$4.00

 

 

LNG Exports

12.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2023

2024

2025 Projected

2026 Projected

 

 

Natural gas

42.00%

43.00%

41.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

17.00%

16.00%

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

27.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/13/20

 

 

 

3/7/25

2/28/25

Net Change

% Change

3/8/24

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

307

340

-33

-9.71%

412

-25.49%

367

-16.26%

 

 

Midwest

370

396

-26

-6.57%

561

-34.05%

465

-20.46%

 

 

Mountain

165

166

-1

-0.60%

167

-1.20%

110

49.73%

 

 

Pacific

196

199

-3

-1.51%

213

-7.98%

168

16.95%

 

 

South

660

658

2

0.30%

972

-32.10%

801

-17.60%

 

 

    Salt

161

150

11

7.33%

294

-45.24%

233

-30.78%

 

 

    Non_Salt

499

509

-10

-1.96%

678

-26.40%

569

-12.27%

 

 

Total

1,698

1,760

-62

-3.52%

2,325

-26.97%

1,911

-11.13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-25

$55.96

$54.18

3.29%

$1.78

$50.68

10.42%

$46.04

21.55%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-25

$43.77

$42.78

2.31%

$0.99

$39.84

9.86%

$35.51

23.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-25

$9.07

$9.65

-6.06%

-$0.58

$4.50

101.68%

$23.06

-60.69%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-25

$49.75

$48.67

2.22%

$1.08

$48.58

2.40%

$47.53

4.68%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-25

$50.96

$51.84

-1.70%

-$0.88

$55.39

-8.00%

$48.95

4.11%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-25

$40.73

$42.00

-3.02%

-$1.27

$45.00

-9.48%

$51.02

-20.17%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-25

$50.48

$50.69

-0.41%

-$0.21

$52.46

-3.79%

$44.56

13.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-25

$4.052

$4.018

0.85%

$0.03

$3.98

1.89%

$3.04

33.20%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-25

-$0.601

-$0.555

8.31%

-$0.05

-$0.55

9.85%

-$0.32

86.44%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-25

-$0.492

-$0.417

-15.19%

-$0.07

-$0.17

193.44%

-$0.11

331.78%

 

 

Waha

Apr-25

-$3.867

-$3.738

-3.44%

-$0.13

-$2.67

45.06%

-$1.05

269.05%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-25

-$0.260

-$0.191

-36.20%

-$0.07

$0.20

-227.64%

$0.54

-148.43%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-25

-$2.664

-$2.603

2.36%

-$0.06

-$2.47

8.03%

-$0.80

233.68%

 

 

Socal

Apr-25

-$0.964

-$0.878

9.82%

-$0.09

-$0.55

76.82%

-$0.22

339.07%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-25

$0.808

$0.818

-1.19%

-$0.01

$0.84

-4.25%

$0.74

8.44%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-25

$0.816

$0.825

-1.03%

-$0.01

$0.84

-3.12%

$0.74

9.73%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-25

$0.300

$0.297

0.84%

$0.00

$0.27

10.08%

$0.23

31.87%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-25

$1.452

$1.450

0.15%

$0.00

$1.52

-4.71%

$1.51

-3.56%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-25

$0.906

$0.915

-1.04%

-$0.01

$0.98

-7.69%

$0.85

6.43%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-25

$5.851

$5.892

-0.69%

-$0.04

$5.98

-2.14%

$5.60

4.39%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-25

$5.960

$5.950

0.17%

$0.01

$6.00

-0.63%

$5.32

11.98%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-25

$66.75

$67.37

-0.93%

-$0.62

$71.58

-6.75%

$74.53

-10.44%

 

 

Brent

May-25

$70.56

$71.07

-0.72%

-$0.51

$75.43

-6.46%

$79.28

-11.00%

 

 

WCS

May-25

-$10.25

-$10.25

0.00%

$0.00

-$13.20

-22.35%

-$12.28

-16.56%

 

 

LLS

May-25

$69.11

$69.40

-0.43%

-$0.29

$73.09

-5.44%

$77.77

-11.13%

 

 

Mars

May-25

$67.28

$67.91

-0.93%

-$0.63

$71.39

-5.75%

$74.54

-9.74%

 

 

Sour

May-25

$66.82

$67.40

-0.85%

-$0.57

$70.63

-5.39%

$74.55

-10.36%

 

 

ESPO

May-25

$68.56

$69.07

-0.74%

-$0.51

$73.43

-6.63%

$77.28

-11.28%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-25

$2.20

$2.20

-0.09%

$0.00

$2.38

-7.69%

$2.57

-14.61%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-25

$2.17

$2.18

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.32

-6.47%

$2.35

-7.46%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-25

$2.07

$2.08

-0.48%

-$0.01

$2.22

-6.76%

$2.24

-7.80%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-25

$2.06

$2.07

-0.34%

-$0.01

$2.24

-8.04%

$2.44

-15.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-25

$1.78

$1.77

0.56%

$0.01

$1.89

-5.82%

$1.53

16.26%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-25

$654.18

$651.16

0.46%

$3.02

$708.48

-7.66%

$723.99

-9.64%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-25

$84.85

$85.42

-0.67%

-$0.58

$90.20

-5.93%

$99.32

-14.57%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-25

54.27%

59.17%

-8.28%

-4.90%

44.00%

23.34%

37.08%

46.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-25

57.86%

64.83%

-10.75%

-6.97%

37.13%

55.83%

38.50%

50.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-25

276.38%

276.89%

-0.18%

-0.51%

119.32%

131.63%

46.02%

500.56%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-25

57.94%

64.41%

-10.05%

-6.47%

50.74%

14.19%

38.46%

50.65%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-25

45.54%

46.73%

-2.55%

-1.19%

38.44%

18.47%

36.74%

23.95%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-25

278.70%

265.06%

5.15%

13.64%

158.28%

76.08%

85.26%

226.88%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-25

30.10%

38.87%

-22.56%

-8.77%

22.21%

35.52%

144.64%

-79.19%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-25

EUR 40.51

EUR 41.25

-1.81%

-EUR 0.75

EUR 50.06

-19.09%

EUR 30.53

32.67%

 

 

NBP

May-25

GBP 98.30

GBP 99.53

-1.24%

-GBP 1.23

GBP 118.24

-16.87%

GBP 77.25

27.25%

 

 

German Base

May-25

EUR 71.22

EUR 69.84

1.97%

EUR 1.38

EUR 79.08

-9.94%

EUR 69.71

2.17%

 

 

UK Base

May-25

GBP 78.47

GBP 78.74

-0.34%

-GBP 0.27

GBP 91.92

-14.63%

GBP 68.52

14.52%

 

 

French Base

May-25

EUR 43.28

EUR 43.12

0.36%

EUR 0.16

EUR 48.07

-9.97%

EUR 62.23

-30.45%

 

 

Italian Base

May-25

EUR 105.24

EUR 106.09

-0.80%

-EUR 0.84

EUR 119.98

-12.28%

EUR 86.42

21.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-25

$13.15

$13.52

-2.71%

-$0.37

$14.44

-8.91%

$10.67

23.28%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/18/25

3/17/25

% Change

Change

2/18/25

% Change

3/18/24

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-25

$40.51

$41.25

-1.81%

-$0.75

$50.06

-19.09%

$30.53

32.67%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-25

$98.30

$99.53

-1.24%

-$1.23

$118.24

-16.87%

$77.25

27.25%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-25

$71.22

$69.84

1.97%

$1.38

$79.08

-9.94%

$69.71

2.17%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-25

$78.47

$78.74

-0.34%

-$0.27

$91.92

-14.63%

$68.52

14.52%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-25

$43.28

$43.12

0.36%

$0.16

$48.07

-9.97%

$62.23

-30.45%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-25

$105.24

$106.09

-0.80%

-$0.84

$119.98

-12.28%

$86.42

21.78%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-25

$13.15

$13.52

-2.71%

-$0.37

$14.44

-8.91%

$10.67

23.28%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/15/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

10

0

-4

66

-19

0

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

3

-1

3

5

-14

3

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

16

6

2

56

6

-1

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

3

-4

3

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

0

0

19

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/15/2025

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

171

-45

7

5,004

-245

500

-5.00%

11.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

140

-56

15

4,424

-348

426

-7.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

117

-89

-13

4,855

-442

501

-8.00%

12.00%

 

 

W N Central

117

-88

-17

5,141

-483

505

-9.00%

11.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

64

-27

6

2,300

-140

176

-6.00%

8.00%

 

 

E S Central

53

-57

-25

2,807

-297

115

-10.00%

4.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

-30

-10

1,785

-279

-65

-14.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

152

3

-8

3,838

-327

-13

-8.00%

0.00%

 

 

Pacific

128

31

19

2,372

-96

53

-4.00%

2.00%

 

 

United States

104

-38

0

3,428

-279

241

-8.00%

8.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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