Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-21-2024

Mar 21, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:27 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.680

$1.699

-1.12%

-$0.019

20,157

 

 

WTI

$80.92

$81.68

-0.93%

-$0.76

116,105

 

 

Brent

$85.59

$85.95

-0.42%

-$0.36

10,219

 

 

ULSD

$2.658

$2.696

-1.39%

-$0.037

3,812

 

 

RBOB

$2.719

$2.733

-0.54%

-$0.015

4,127

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.66

$4.68

-0.43%

-$0.02

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.74

$32.33

-1.82%

-$0.59

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.06

$31.57

1.55%

$0.49

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/15/24

629

7

-125

03/18/23

 

 

Canada

03/15/24

207

-18

0

03/18/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/12/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,085

90,642

90,642

0

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,238

78,895

78,982

-87

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

380,458

358,116

368,376

-10,260

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

307,461

262,005

230,289

31,716

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

109,955

100,537

100,240

297

 

 

NYM Ethanol

48,564

47,770

48,227

-457

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,268

149,192

149,949

-757

 

 

RBOB

379,544

352,260

364,346

-12,086

 

 

HSC Basis

791,538

780,281

781,443

-1,162

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/08/19

 

 

 

3/8/24

3/1/24

Net Change

% Change

3/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

412

422

-10

-2.37%

391

5.37%

337

22.40%

 

 

Midwest

561

575

-14

-2.43%

490

14.49%

410

36.70%

 

 

Mountain

167

169

-2

-1.18%

87

91.95%

90

85.56%

 

 

Pacific

213

219

-6

-2.74%

72

195.83%

145

46.49%

 

 

South

972

949

23

2.42%

933

4.18%

700

38.78%

 

 

    Salt

294

285

9

3.16%

266

10.53%

200

47.29%

 

 

    Non_Salt

678

664

14

2.11%

667

1.65%

501

35.28%

 

 

Total

2,325

2,334

-9

-0.39%

1,972

17.90%

1,683

38.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$35.65

$35.20

1.28%

$0.45

$35.44

0.60%

$42.89

-16.87%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$33.39

$32.62

2.35%

$0.77

$30.98

7.77%

$32.66

2.21%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$20.78

$21.20

-2.01%

-$0.43

$27.75

-25.12%

$36.70

-43.39%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$35.39

$35.58

-0.54%

-$0.19

$37.91

-6.64%

$46.26

-23.49%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$27.83

$28.62

-2.77%

-$0.79

$31.58

-11.89%

$55.22

-49.60%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$38.00

$40.57

-6.33%

-$2.57

$48.68

-21.94%

$56.44

-32.68%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$30.75

$31.02

-0.88%

-$0.27

$30.09

2.19%

$46.80

-34.31%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.699

$1.744

-2.58%

-$0.04

$1.86

-8.80%

$3.20

-46.94%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.209

-$0.191

9.25%

-$0.02

-$0.28

-24.92%

-$0.38

-45.05%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.090

-$0.092

2.68%

$0.00

-$0.08

18.54%

-$0.08

18.70%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.638

-$1.569

-4.37%

-$0.07

-$0.91

80.25%

-$1.34

21.85%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.030

-$0.023

-32.17%

-$0.01

$0.05

-157.14%

$1.14

-102.67%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.395

-$0.401

-1.37%

$0.01

-$0.51

-22.45%

-$0.92

-57.03%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.001

-$0.014

-91.55%

$0.01

$0.24

-100.50%

$0.11

-101.08%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.823

$0.830

-0.88%

-$0.01

$0.82

0.30%

$0.73

13.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.818

$0.827

-1.19%

-$0.01

$0.82

-0.80%

$0.73

12.66%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.185

$0.183

1.16%

$0.00

$0.19

-1.75%

$0.23

-19.11%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.633

$1.650

-1.06%

-$0.02

$1.52

7.23%

$1.43

14.19%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.948

$0.937

1.20%

$0.01

$0.94

0.64%

$0.81

16.76%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.075

$6.110

-0.58%

-$0.04

$5.92

2.60%

$5.08

19.47%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.200

$6.217

-0.27%

-$0.02

$5.78

7.27%

$4.98

24.54%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$81.27

$82.73

-1.80%

-$1.46

$77.31

5.12%

$67.86

19.76%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$85.95

$87.38

-1.66%

-$1.43

$82.11

4.68%

$73.25

17.34%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$12.35

-$12.30

0.45%

-$0.06

-$15.07

-18.02%

-$15.45

-20.05%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$82.92

$84.41

-1.80%

-$1.49

$78.86

5.15%

$69.39

19.50%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$80.70

$81.85

-1.43%

-$1.15

$76.81

5.07%

$65.83

22.58%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$81.57

$82.89

-1.61%

-$1.32

$76.37

6.81%

$65.90

23.78%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$83.95

$85.38

-1.70%

-$1.43

$80.11

4.79%

$71.08

18.10%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.70

$2.76

-2.32%

-$0.06

$2.66

1.24%

$2.45

9.99%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.73

$2.76

-1.09%

-$0.03

$2.53

8.11%

$2.26

21.14%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.63

$2.66

-1.13%

-$0.03

$2.43

8.44%

$2.16

22.12%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.61

$2.67

-2.43%

-$0.07

$2.58

1.28%

$2.49

4.78%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.62

$1.63

-0.62%

-$0.01

$1.51

6.95%

$1.74

-7.24%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$781.28

$801.48

-2.52%

-$20.20

$754.53

3.54%

$652.77

19.69%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$103.96

$105.74

-1.69%

-$1.78

$100.37

3.57%

$90.60

14.75%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

63.47%

54.44%

16.59%

9.03%

58.98%

7.61%

58.21%

9.04%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

73.09%

64.45%

13.41%

8.64%

68.66%

6.45%

62.97%

16.07%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

174.29%

148.61%

17.28%

25.68%

111.46%

56.37%

75.02%

132.32%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

67.87%

59.08%

14.88%

8.79%

57.31%

18.43%

59.23%

14.59%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

46.65%

48.17%

-3.16%

-1.52%

49.93%

-6.57%

45.01%

3.64%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

128.34%

137.95%

-6.97%

-9.61%

72.53%

76.95%

27.21%

371.66%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

105.67%

54.92%

92.41%

50.75%

207.12%

-48.98%

71.34%

48.12%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 27.26

EUR 29.02

-6.07%

-EUR 1.76

EUR 24.13

12.99%

EUR 47.11

-42.14%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 68.78

GBP 72.86

-5.60%

-GBP 4.08

GBP 58.40

17.77%

GBP 122.29

-43.76%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 53.54

EUR 54.91

-2.49%

-EUR 1.37

EUR 50.09

6.90%

EUR 115.16

-53.50%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 62.15

GBP 63.78

-2.55%

-GBP 1.63

GBP 52.33

18.78%

GBP 113.52

-45.25%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 40.31

EUR 41.65

-3.22%

-EUR 1.34

EUR 43.14

-6.57%

EUR 108.06

-62.70%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 78.55

EUR 79.94

-1.74%

-EUR 1.39

EUR 73.12

7.43%

EUR 122.91

-36.09%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$8.74

$8.86

-1.33%

-$0.12

$8.25

5.95%

$15.98

-45.30%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/20/24

3/19/24

% Change

Change

2/21/24

% Change

3/22/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$27.26

$29.02

-6.07%

-$1.76

$24.13

12.99%

$47.11

-42.14%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$68.78

$72.86

-5.60%

-$4.08

$58.40

17.77%

$122.29

-43.76%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$53.54

$54.91

-2.49%

-$1.37

$50.09

6.90%

$115.16

-53.50%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$62.15

$63.78

-2.55%

-$1.63

$52.33

18.78%

$113.52

-45.25%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$40.31

$41.65

-3.22%

-$1.34

$43.14

-6.57%

$108.06

-62.70%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$78.55

$79.94

-1.74%

-$1.39

$73.12

7.43%

$122.91

-36.09%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$8.74

$8.86

-1.33%

-$0.12

$8.25

5.95%

$15.98

-45.30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

11

0

1

58

-30

-56

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-4

0

2

-19

-16

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

15

4

3

55

2

-30

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

0

0

-7

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

4

0

1

17

-8

-15

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

164

-49

-38

4,579

-734

16

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

141

-53

-64

4,228

-603

26

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

132

-71

-92

4,434

-925

-328

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

126

-76

-106

4,657

-1,029

-792

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

55

-34

-55

2,130

-338

20

-14.00%

1.00%

 

 

E S Central

77

-31

-59

2,701

-436

61

-14.00%

2.00%

 

 

W S Central

38

-26

-20

1,870

-214

15

-10.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

158

11

3

3,916

-293

-525

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

107

10

-7

2,352

-144

-415

-6.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

104

-36

-50

3,251

-498

-192

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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