Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-26-2024

Mar 26, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.615

$1.615

0.00%

$0.000

1,813

 

 

WTI

$82.17

$81.95

0.27%

$0.22

58,948

 

 

Brent

$86.84

$86.75

0.10%

$0.09

2,983

 

 

ULSD

$2.665

$2.679

-0.51%

-$0.014

2,314

 

 

RBOB

$2.736

$2.748

-0.45%

-$0.012

1,479

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.65

$4.80

-3.13%

-$0.15

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.07

$31.74

-2.12%

-$0.67

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$28.63

$29.14

-1.77%

-$0.52

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/22/24

624

-5

-134

03/25/23

 

 

Canada

03/22/24

169

-38

4

03/25/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/19/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,107

91,666

91,671

-5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,575

81,237

81,314

-77

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

381,800

359,418

368,623

-9,205

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,575

137,562

123,804

13,758

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

114,850

106,004

105,096

908

 

 

NYM Ethanol

47,057

46,270

46,676

-406

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

154,886

153,769

154,472

-703

 

 

RBOB

384,040

357,198

369,107

-11,909

 

 

HSC Basis

802,580

792,240

792,733

-493

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/15/19

 

 

 

3/15/24

3/8/24

Net Change

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

406

412

-6

-1.46%

355

14.37%

315

29.05%

 

 

Midwest

551

561

-10

-1.78%

461

19.52%

389

41.72%

 

 

Mountain

166

167

-1

-0.60%

84

97.62%

87

89.93%

 

 

Pacific

216

213

3

1.41%

72

200.00%

142

51.69%

 

 

South

993

972

21

2.16%

927

7.12%

703

41.21%

 

 

    Salt

300

294

6

2.04%

262

14.50%

205

46.20%

 

 

    Non_Salt

694

678

16

2.36%

664

4.52%

498

39.36%

 

 

Total

2,332

2,325

7

0.30%

1,900

22.74%

1,637

42.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.08

$32.60

-1.58%

-$0.52

$32.52

-1.35%

$42.29

-24.14%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.39

$32.00

1.21%

$0.39

$30.34

6.76%

$33.51

-3.33%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$17.93

$18.50

-3.11%

-$0.57

$25.00

-28.30%

$38.68

-53.66%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$31.50

$32.00

-1.58%

-$0.50

$34.70

-9.21%

$45.85

-31.30%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$27.40

$27.87

-1.68%

-$0.47

$29.06

-5.69%

$53.23

-48.53%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$39.00

$36.52

6.79%

$2.48

$39.35

-0.89%

$62.18

-37.28%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$30.87

$28.12

9.79%

$2.75

$27.72

11.34%

$43.76

-29.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Apr-24

$1.615

$1.659

-2.65%

-$0.04

$1.74

-7.40%

$3.20

-49.58%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Apr-24

-$0.245

-$0.234

4.93%

-$0.01

-$0.30

-17.70%

-$0.38

-35.20%

 

 

Chicago

Apr-24

-$0.127

-$0.086

-32.42%

-$0.04

-$0.11

13.55%

-$0.09

39.39%

 

 

Waha

Apr-24

-$1.747

-$1.700

-2.79%

-$0.05

-$1.02

71.27%

-$1.38

26.86%

 

 

Algonquin

Apr-24

-$0.087

-$0.040

-121.52%

-$0.05

$0.04

-346.48%

$1.08

-108.13%

 

 

Aeco

Apr-24

-$0.359

-$0.354

1.67%

-$0.01

-$0.49

-26.77%

-$0.81

-55.36%

 

 

Socal

Apr-24

-$0.255

-$0.072

256.01%

-$0.18

$0.22

-215.44%

$0.04

-708.35%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.837

$0.830

0.90%

$0.01

$0.81

2.87%

$0.76

10.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.830

$0.823

0.91%

$0.01

$0.82

1.18%

$0.75

10.94%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.189

$0.189

-0.27%

$0.00

$0.19

1.35%

$0.23

-17.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.630

$1.616

0.84%

$0.01

$1.52

7.10%

$1.41

15.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.977

$0.957

2.04%

$0.02

$0.93

5.08%

$0.83

18.38%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.050

$6.024

0.42%

$0.03

$5.84

3.67%

$5.19

16.54%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.208

$6.180

0.45%

$0.03

$5.75

7.99%

$5.05

22.94%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$81.95

$80.63

1.61%

$1.32

$77.09

6.30%

$69.80

17.41%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$86.75

$85.43

1.52%

$1.32

$81.67

6.22%

$74.80

15.98%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$13.55

-$12.54

7.40%

-$1.00

-$15.11

-10.36%

-$15.45

-12.32%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$83.92

$82.64

1.53%

$1.28

$78.86

6.43%

$71.49

17.39%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$81.27

$80.04

1.52%

$1.24

$76.75

5.90%

$67.63

20.16%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$82.36

$80.88

1.80%

$1.49

$77.30

6.54%

$67.80

21.48%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$84.75

$83.43

1.56%

$1.32

$79.67

6.38%

$71.25

18.95%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.68

$2.65

1.02%

$0.03

$2.71

-1.22%

$2.44

9.65%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.76

$2.73

1.03%

$0.03

$2.55

8.32%

$2.32

18.92%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.66

$2.63

1.06%

$0.03

$2.45

8.66%

$2.22

19.77%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.58

$2.53

1.86%

$0.05

$2.55

1.14%

$2.43

5.95%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.63

$1.65

-1.51%

-$0.02

$1.49

9.76%

$1.72

-5.01%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$776.96

$773.42

0.46%

$3.54

$761.36

2.05%

$660.81

17.58%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$101.87

$102.90

-1.00%

-$1.03

$99.71

2.16%

$89.09

14.35%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

57.19%

57.92%

-1.26%

-0.73%

62.15%

-7.98%

53.05%

7.80%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

68.93%

64.35%

7.12%

4.58%

74.47%

-7.44%

56.52%

21.96%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

184.27%

170.12%

8.32%

14.15%

114.25%

61.29%

73.68%

150.10%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

63.28%

61.10%

3.57%

2.18%

61.29%

3.25%

54.87%

15.33%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

47.91%

46.34%

3.39%

1.57%

46.41%

3.23%

46.08%

3.97%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

134.11%

193.68%

-30.76%

-59.57%

70.84%

89.31%

26.43%

407.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

197.74%

61.04%

223.95%

136.70%

143.96%

37.36%

71.03%

178.39%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 28.08

EUR 27.39

2.52%

EUR 0.69

EUR 24.04

16.80%

EUR 48.79

-42.45%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 70.95

GBP 69.20

2.52%

GBP 1.75

GBP 58.54

21.20%

GBP 128.50

-44.79%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 54.77

EUR 51.65

6.04%

EUR 3.12

EUR 48.62

12.64%

EUR 111.22

-50.75%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 62.88

GBP 61.28

2.62%

GBP 1.61

GBP 53.92

16.63%

GBP 121.74

-48.35%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 35.32

EUR 33.92

4.13%

EUR 1.40

EUR 41.90

-15.71%

EUR 109.13

-67.64%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 79.38

EUR 75.42

5.25%

EUR 3.96

EUR 72.69

9.20%

EUR 122.96

-35.44%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$9.23

$9.32

-0.93%

-$0.09

$8.44

9.28%

$13.68

-32.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/25/24

3/22/24

% Change

Change

2/26/24

% Change

3/27/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$28.08

$27.39

2.52%

$0.69

$24.04

16.80%

$48.79

-42.45%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$70.95

$69.20

2.52%

$1.75

$58.54

21.20%

$128.50

-44.79%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$54.77

$51.65

6.04%

$3.12

$48.62

12.64%

$111.22

-50.75%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$62.88

$61.28

2.62%

$1.61

$53.92

16.63%

$121.74

-48.35%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$35.32

$33.92

4.13%

$1.40

$41.90

-15.71%

$109.13

-67.64%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$79.38

$75.42

5.25%

$3.96

$72.69

9.20%

$122.96

-35.44%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$9.23

$9.32

-0.93%

-$0.09

$8.44

9.28%

$13.68

-32.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-3

2

67

-33

-56

-33.00%

-46.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

2

-23

-18

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

5

-8

-6

59

-7

-41

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

0

-10

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

-3

0

19

-11

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

198

1

20

4,778

-732

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

188

11

22

4,416

-592

49

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

213

28

6

4,647

-896

-318

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

209

26

-29

4,866

-1,003

-809

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

76

-2

-22

2,206

-339

7

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

105

11

-39

2,806

-425

37

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

57

4

-36

1,927

-210

-7

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

127

-10

-52

4,043

-303

-576

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

76

-16

-44

2,428

-160

-463

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

132

6

-17

3,384

-491

-204

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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