Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-27-2024

Mar 27, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:35 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.722

$1.575

9.33%

$0.147

36,804

 

 

WTI

$81.19

$81.62

-0.53%

-$0.43

84,352

 

 

Brent

$85.79

$86.25

-0.53%

-$0.46

2,046

 

 

ULSD

$2.606

$2.622

-0.61%

-$0.016

1,543

 

 

RBOB

$2.706

$2.701

0.20%

$0.005

2,396

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.62

$4.63

-0.22%

-$0.01

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.50

$30.19

1.01%

$0.31

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/22/24

624

-5

-134

03/25/23

 

 

Canada

03/22/24

169

-38

4

03/25/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/19/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,107

91,666

91,671

-5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,575

81,237

81,314

-77

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

381,800

359,418

368,623

-9,205

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,575

137,562

123,804

13,758

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

114,850

106,004

105,096

908

 

 

NYM Ethanol

47,057

46,270

46,676

-406

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

154,886

153,769

154,472

-703

 

 

RBOB

384,040

357,198

369,107

-11,909

 

 

HSC Basis

802,580

792,240

792,733

-493

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/15/19

 

 

 

3/15/24

3/8/24

Net Change

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

406

412

-6

-1.46%

355

14.37%

315

29.05%

 

 

Midwest

551

561

-10

-1.78%

461

19.52%

389

41.72%

 

 

Mountain

166

167

-1

-0.60%

84

97.62%

87

89.93%

 

 

Pacific

216

213

3

1.41%

72

200.00%

142

51.69%

 

 

South

993

972

21

2.16%

927

7.12%

703

41.21%

 

 

    Salt

300

294

6

2.04%

262

14.50%

205

46.20%

 

 

    Non_Salt

694

678

16

2.36%

664

4.52%

498

39.36%

 

 

Total

2,332

2,325

7

0.30%

1,900

22.74%

1,637

42.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$32.66

$32.08

1.79%

$0.57

$31.94

2.23%

$42.51

-23.18%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.39

$32.39

-0.02%

-$0.01

$32.35

0.12%

$34.61

-6.43%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$17.88

$17.93

-0.26%

-$0.05

$23.38

-23.53%

$39.00

-54.15%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$31.53

$31.50

0.11%

$0.04

$33.67

-6.33%

$46.16

-31.69%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$27.75

$27.40

1.27%

$0.35

$28.54

-2.76%

$52.13

-46.76%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$38.44

$39.00

-1.43%

-$0.56

$35.25

9.06%

$60.11

-36.05%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$26.05

$30.87

-15.60%

-$4.82

$27.77

-6.18%

$43.98

-40.77%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.788

$1.789

-0.06%

$0.00

$1.97

-9.01%

$3.17

-43.67%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.200

-$0.203

-1.19%

$0.00

-$0.27

-24.83%

-$0.38

-47.73%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.150

-$0.142

-4.94%

-$0.01

-$0.16

-7.13%

-$0.15

-1.45%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$1.513

-$1.490

-1.52%

-$0.02

-$1.07

40.76%

-$1.29

17.65%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.225

-$0.248

9.09%

$0.02

-$0.23

-3.10%

-$0.36

-37.06%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.539

-$0.542

-0.52%

$0.00

-$0.66

-17.73%

-$0.98

-45.07%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.205

-$0.205

-0.05%

$0.00

-$0.03

550.48%

$0.00

68200.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.838

$0.837

0.01%

$0.00

$0.82

2.75%

$0.77

8.71%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.830

$0.830

0.00%

$0.00

$0.82

1.29%

$0.77

7.51%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.186

$0.189

-1.34%

$0.00

$0.19

0.43%

$0.23

-18.12%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.610

$1.630

-1.22%

-$0.02

$1.55

3.85%

$1.47

9.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.958

$0.977

-1.97%

-$0.02

$0.92

3.83%

$0.85

12.12%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.027

$6.050

-0.38%

-$0.02

$5.87

2.67%

$5.30

13.63%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.200

$6.208

-0.13%

-$0.01

$5.72

8.39%

$5.17

19.82%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$81.62

$81.95

-0.40%

-$0.33

$78.23

4.33%

$70.08

16.47%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$86.25

$86.75

-0.58%

-$0.50

$82.66

4.34%

$74.96

15.06%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$12.88

-$13.55

-5.17%

$0.67

-$14.94

-13.81%

-$15.45

-16.64%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$83.76

$83.92

-0.20%

-$0.17

$79.81

4.94%

$71.75

16.73%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$81.26

$81.27

-0.01%

-$0.01

$77.28

5.15%

$68.13

19.27%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$82.30

$82.36

-0.08%

-$0.07

$77.87

5.68%

$68.64

19.89%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$84.25

$84.75

-0.59%

-$0.50

$80.66

4.45%

$72.48

16.24%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.62

$2.68

-2.31%

-$0.06

$2.69

-2.68%

$2.48

5.43%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.70

$2.76

-2.21%

-$0.06

$2.59

4.25%

$2.33

15.89%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.60

$2.66

-2.29%

-$0.06

$2.49

4.42%

$2.23

16.61%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.53

$2.58

-1.94%

-$0.05

$2.58

-1.86%

$2.36

7.11%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.62

$1.63

-0.61%

-$0.01

$1.45

12.11%

$1.70

-4.82%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$768.58

$776.96

-1.08%

-$8.38

$767.40

0.15%

$680.66

12.92%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$101.65

$101.87

-0.22%

-$0.22

$101.89

-0.24%

$92.78

9.56%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

54.26%

57.19%

-5.12%

-2.93%

59.99%

-9.55%

52.12%

4.11%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

65.84%

68.93%

-4.48%

-3.09%

71.52%

-7.94%

55.09%

19.51%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

190.43%

184.27%

3.34%

6.16%

119.05%

59.96%

77.35%

146.19%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

57.85%

63.28%

-8.58%

-5.43%

59.80%

-3.26%

53.88%

7.37%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

49.35%

47.91%

3.01%

1.44%

48.30%

2.17%

46.11%

7.03%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

132.22%

134.11%

-1.41%

-1.89%

76.82%

72.12%

26.93%

390.98%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

153.94%

197.74%

-22.15%

-43.80%

150.46%

2.31%

70.66%

117.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 27.67

EUR 28.08

-1.44%

-EUR 0.41

EUR 24.82

11.53%

EUR 49.53

-44.12%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 70.00

GBP 70.95

-1.33%

-GBP 0.95

GBP 60.59

15.53%

GBP 127.67

-45.17%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 51.02

EUR 54.77

-6.85%

-EUR 3.75

EUR 49.10

3.90%

EUR 114.75

-55.54%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 60.41

GBP 62.88

-3.93%

-GBP 2.47

GBP 55.66

8.55%

GBP 119.76

-49.56%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 29.91

EUR 35.32

-15.30%

-EUR 5.40

EUR 45.10

-33.67%

EUR 107.21

-72.10%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 76.53

EUR 79.38

-3.59%

-EUR 2.85

EUR 73.90

3.55%

EUR 128.10

-40.26%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$8.77

$9.23

-4.97%

-$0.46

$8.48

3.44%

$14.42

-39.20%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/26/24

3/25/24

% Change

Change

2/27/24

% Change

3/28/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$27.67

$28.08

-1.44%

-$0.41

$24.82

11.53%

$49.53

-44.12%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$70.00

$70.95

-1.33%

-$0.95

$60.59

15.53%

$127.67

-45.17%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$51.02

$54.77

-6.85%

-$3.75

$49.10

3.90%

$114.75

-55.54%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$60.41

$62.88

-3.93%

-$2.47

$55.66

8.55%

$119.76

-49.56%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$29.91

$35.32

-15.30%

-$5.40

$45.10

-33.67%

$107.21

-72.10%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$76.53

$79.38

-3.59%

-$2.85

$73.90

3.55%

$128.10

-40.26%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$8.77

$9.23

-4.97%

-$0.46

$8.48

3.44%

$14.42

-39.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-3

2

67

-33

-56

-33.00%

-46.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

2

-23

-18

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

5

-8

-6

59

-7

-41

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

0

-10

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

-3

0

19

-11

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

198

1

20

4,778

-732

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

188

11

22

4,416

-592

49

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

213

28

6

4,647

-896

-318

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

209

26

-29

4,866

-1,003

-809

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

76

-2

-22

2,206

-339

7

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

105

11

-39

2,806

-425

37

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

57

4

-36

1,927

-210

-7

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

127

-10

-52

4,043

-303

-576

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

76

-16

-44

2,428

-160

-463

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

132

6

-17

3,384

-491

-204

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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