Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Mar-28-2024

Mar 28, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:11 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.738

$1.718

1.16%

$0.020

24,999

 

 

WTI

$82.58

$81.35

1.51%

$1.23

83,845

 

 

Brent

$87.32

$86.09

1.43%

$1.23

429

 

 

ULSD

$2.610

$2.599

0.44%

$0.011

419

 

 

RBOB

$2.710

$2.685

0.94%

$0.025

372

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.75

$4.74

0.21%

$0.01

May-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$29.23

$29.90

-2.24%

-$0.67

May-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Apr-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

03/22/24

624

-5

-134

03/25/23

 

 

Canada

03/22/24

169

-38

4

03/25/23

 

 

International

Feb

958

-7

43

Feb

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 3/19/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,107

91,666

91,671

-5

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,575

81,237

81,314

-77

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

381,800

359,418

368,623

-9,205

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

160,575

137,562

123,804

13,758

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

114,850

106,004

105,096

908

 

 

NYM Ethanol

47,057

46,270

46,676

-406

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

154,886

153,769

154,472

-703

 

 

RBOB

384,040

357,198

369,107

-11,909

 

 

HSC Basis

802,580

792,240

792,733

-493

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

03/15/19

 

 

 

3/15/24

3/8/24

Net Change

% Change

3/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

406

412

-6

-1.46%

355

14.37%

315

29.05%

 

 

Midwest

551

561

-10

-1.78%

461

19.52%

389

41.72%

 

 

Mountain

166

167

-1

-0.60%

84

97.62%

87

89.93%

 

 

Pacific

216

213

3

1.41%

72

200.00%

142

51.69%

 

 

South

993

972

21

2.16%

927

7.12%

703

41.21%

 

 

    Salt

300

294

6

2.04%

262

14.50%

205

46.20%

 

 

    Non_Salt

694

678

16

2.36%

664

4.52%

498

39.36%

 

 

Total

2,332

2,325

7

0.30%

1,900

22.74%

1,637

42.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Apr-24

$33.65

$32.66

3.04%

$0.99

$33.37

0.83%

$42.52

-20.86%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Apr-24

$32.55

$32.39

0.50%

$0.16

$33.59

-3.11%

$34.81

-6.49%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Apr-24

$17.00

$17.88

-4.91%

-$0.88

$22.65

-24.93%

$41.00

-58.54%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Apr-24

$31.95

$31.53

1.32%

$0.42

$35.08

-8.91%

$46.19

-30.83%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Apr-24

$28.97

$27.75

4.39%

$1.22

$30.09

-3.72%

$52.57

-44.89%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Apr-24

$38.85

$38.44

1.06%

$0.41

$47.03

-17.38%

$58.09

-33.12%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Apr-24

$28.60

$26.05

9.79%

$2.55

$28.95

-1.20%

$44.37

-35.54%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

May-24

$1.718

$1.788

-3.91%

-$0.07

$2.05

-16.28%

$3.19

-46.21%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

May-24

-$0.170

-$0.200

-14.79%

$0.03

-$0.28

-38.09%

-$0.38

-55.69%

 

 

Chicago

May-24

-$0.148

-$0.150

1.56%

$0.00

-$0.17

-12.56%

-$0.14

6.42%

 

 

Waha

May-24

-$1.495

-$1.513

-1.18%

$0.02

-$1.13

31.78%

-$1.30

14.55%

 

 

Algonquin

May-24

-$0.213

-$0.225

5.24%

$0.01

-$0.28

-23.31%

-$0.36

-40.96%

 

 

Aeco

May-24

-$0.525

-$0.539

-2.73%

$0.01

-$0.71

-26.17%

-$0.91

-42.64%

 

 

Socal

May-24

-$0.217

-$0.205

5.95%

-$0.01

-$0.02

900.46%

$0.00

10238.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Apr-24

$0.834

$0.838

-0.45%

$0.00

$0.82

1.55%

$0.77

8.47%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Apr-24

$0.830

$0.830

0.00%

$0.00

$0.83

0.33%

$0.77

7.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Apr-24

$0.181

$0.186

-2.70%

-$0.01

$0.19

-5.86%

$0.24

-24.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Apr-24

$1.598

$1.610

-0.78%

-$0.01

$1.56

2.30%

$1.46

9.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Apr-24

$0.954

$0.958

-0.36%

$0.00

$0.94

1.68%

$0.86

11.34%

 

 

Far East Propane

Apr-24

$6.026

$6.027

-0.01%

$0.00

$5.87

2.70%

$5.32

13.20%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Apr-24

$6.233

$6.200

0.53%

$0.03

$5.74

8.55%

$5.08

22.68%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

May-24

$81.35

$81.62

-0.33%

-$0.27

$77.83

4.52%

$69.73

16.66%

 

 

Brent

May-24

$86.09

$86.25

-0.19%

-$0.16

$82.15

4.80%

$74.48

15.59%

 

 

WCS

May-24

-$12.29

-$12.88

-4.81%

$0.59

-$14.44

-14.92%

-$15.45

-20.46%

 

 

LLS

May-24

$83.25

$83.76

-0.60%

-$0.50

$79.36

4.90%

$72.93

14.16%

 

 

Mars

May-24

$80.86

$81.26

-0.49%

-$0.40

$76.69

5.43%

$67.30

20.15%

 

 

Sour

May-24

$81.70

$82.30

-0.72%

-$0.59

$77.44

5.50%

$68.01

20.13%

 

 

ESPO

May-24

$84.09

$84.25

-0.19%

-$0.16

$80.15

4.92%

$72.61

15.81%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Apr-24

$2.60

$2.62

-0.65%

-$0.02

$2.62

-0.65%

$2.49

4.41%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.68

$2.70

-0.82%

-$0.02

$2.55

5.11%

$2.31

15.69%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Apr-24

$2.58

$2.60

-0.85%

-$0.02

$2.45

5.31%

$2.21

16.40%

 

 

GC Jet

Apr-24

$2.51

$2.53

-0.71%

-$0.02

$2.48

1.09%

$2.29

9.69%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Apr-24

$1.59

$1.62

-1.85%

-$0.03

$1.47

7.94%

$1.71

-6.74%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Apr-24

$762.80

$768.58

-0.75%

-$5.78

$752.06

1.43%

$671.28

13.63%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Apr-24

$101.83

$101.65

0.18%

$0.18

$101.39

0.43%

$91.11

11.76%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

May-24

56.67%

54.26%

4.44%

2.41%

58.38%

-2.93%

50.91%

11.31%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

May-24

67.28%

65.84%

2.19%

1.44%

68.46%

-1.72%

54.51%

23.43%

 

 

Waha Straddle

May-24

196.75%

190.43%

3.32%

6.32%

104.20%

88.82%

70.54%

178.92%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

May-24

58.70%

57.85%

1.47%

0.85%

58.17%

0.91%

52.93%

10.90%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

May-24

47.81%

49.35%

-3.12%

-1.54%

50.11%

-4.59%

46.20%

3.48%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

May-24

141.65%

132.22%

7.13%

9.43%

81.27%

74.30%

26.76%

429.33%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

May-24

158.58%

153.94%

3.01%

4.64%

142.00%

11.68%

71.26%

122.54%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

May-24

EUR 27.74

EUR 27.67

0.22%

EUR 0.06

EUR 25.67

8.04%

EUR 49.10

-43.52%

 

 

NBP

May-24

GBP 69.65

GBP 70.00

-0.51%

-GBP 0.36

GBP 63.18

10.23%

GBP 127.75

-45.48%

 

 

German Base

May-24

EUR 51.63

EUR 51.02

1.21%

EUR 0.62

EUR 55.88

-7.61%

EUR 116.01

-55.49%

 

 

UK Base

May-24

GBP 60.93

GBP 60.41

0.85%

GBP 0.51

GBP 58.28

4.54%

GBP 120.31

-49.36%

 

 

French Base

May-24

EUR 30.58

EUR 29.91

2.24%

EUR 0.67

EUR 47.28

-35.32%

EUR 113.43

-73.04%

 

 

Italian Base

May-24

EUR 76.12

EUR 76.53

-0.54%

-EUR 0.41

EUR 76.38

-0.34%

EUR 128.12

-40.59%

 

 

JKM LNG

May-24

$9.25

$8.77

5.48%

$0.48

$8.77

5.54%

$14.51

-36.26%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

3/27/24

3/26/24

% Change

Change

2/28/24

% Change

3/29/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

May-24

$27.74

$27.67

0.22%

$0.06

$25.67

8.04%

$49.10

-43.52%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

May-24

$69.65

$70.00

-0.51%

-$0.36

$63.18

10.23%

$127.75

-45.48%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

May-24

$51.63

$51.02

1.21%

$0.62

$55.88

-7.61%

$116.01

-55.49%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

May-24

$60.93

$60.41

0.85%

$0.51

$58.28

4.54%

$120.31

-49.36%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

May-24

$30.58

$29.91

2.24%

$0.67

$47.28

-35.32%

$113.43

-73.04%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$76.12

$76.53

-0.54%

-$0.41

$76.38

-0.34%

$128.12

-40.59%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

May-24

$9.25

$8.77

5.48%

$0.48

$8.77

5.54%

$14.51

-36.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-3

2

67

-33

-56

-33.00%

-46.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-5

0

2

-23

-18

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

5

-8

-6

59

-7

-41

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

0

-10

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

0

-5

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

-3

0

19

-11

-16

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

198

1

20

4,778

-732

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

188

11

22

4,416

-592

49

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

213

28

6

4,647

-896

-318

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

209

26

-29

4,866

-1,003

-809

-17.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

76

-2

-22

2,206

-339

7

-13.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

105

11

-39

2,806

-425

37

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

57

4

-36

1,927

-210

-7

-10.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

127

-10

-52

4,043

-303

-576

-7.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

76

-16

-44

2,428

-160

-463

-6.00%

-16.00%

 

 

United States

132

6

-17

3,384

-491

-204

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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