Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-02-2024

May 2, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:10 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$1.988

$1.932

2.90%

$0.056

42,484

 

 

WTI

$78.83

$79.00

-0.22%

-$0.17

139,530

 

 

Brent

$83.44

$87.89

-5.06%

-$4.45

17,567

 

 

ULSD

$2.437

$2.452

-0.59%

-$0.015

16,194

 

 

RBOB

$2.576

$2.577

-0.05%

-$0.001

22,715

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.12

$5.00

2.40%

$0.12

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.33

$27.33

-0.03%

-$0.01

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$35.40

$35.48

-0.24%

-$0.08

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/26/24

613

-6

-142

04/29/23

 

 

Canada

04/26/24

118

-9

25

04/29/23

 

 

International

Mar

971

13

41

Mar

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,395

96,922

96,943

-21

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,896

85,538

85,639

-101

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,039

348,931

356,167

-7,236

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

167,796

146,921

137,793

9,128

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

140,432

131,056

132,766

-1,710

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,746

39,083

39,424

-341

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,172

155,170

155,655

-485

 

 

RBOB

416,152

387,965

400,617

-12,652

 

 

HSC Basis

836,488

827,498

830,284

-2,786

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/19/19

 

 

 

4/19/24

4/12/24

Net Change

% Change

4/21/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

408

379

29

7.65%

390

4.62%

321

27.26%

 

 

Midwest

551

528

23

4.36%

468

17.74%

395

39.56%

 

 

Mountain

173

167

6

3.59%

90

92.22%

94

83.26%

 

 

Pacific

235

230

5

2.17%

90

161.11%

167

40.89%

 

 

South

1,057

1,029

28

2.72%

971

8.86%

813

30.08%

 

 

    Salt

309

300

9

3.00%

275

12.36%

253

22.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

749

729

20

2.74%

695

7.77%

559

33.89%

 

 

Total

2,425

2,333

92

3.94%

2,009

20.71%

1,789

35.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$39.65

$39.61

0.09%

$0.04

$41.95

-5.48%

$45.79

-13.41%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$77.54

$75.99

2.04%

$1.55

$62.17

24.72%

$42.73

81.45%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$24.50

$23.51

4.21%

$0.99

$31.00

-20.97%

$54.48

-55.03%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$42.06

$42.00

0.15%

$0.06

$44.14

-4.71%

$48.84

-13.88%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$35.01

$35.42

-1.18%

-$0.42

$44.50

-21.33%

$46.11

-24.08%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$32.43

$35.72

-9.21%

-$3.29

$47.25

-31.36%

$54.47

-40.46%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$35.20

$35.00

0.57%

$0.20

$38.67

-8.97%

$46.27

-23.94%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$1.932

$1.991

-2.96%

-$0.06

$2.07

-6.53%

$3.25

-40.55%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.215

-$0.211

1.99%

$0.00

-$0.19

12.22%

-$0.39

-45.57%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.270

-$0.271

0.07%

$0.00

-$0.20

32.55%

-$0.24

11.55%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.424

-$1.453

-2.01%

$0.03

-$1.20

18.29%

-$1.39

2.20%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.085

-$0.095

11.02%

$0.01

$0.45

-118.86%

-$0.31

-72.99%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.065

-$1.116

-4.52%

$0.05

-$0.82

29.43%

-$1.25

-14.70%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.412

-$0.397

3.70%

-$0.01

-$0.17

143.98%

-$0.08

399.51%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.732

$0.765

-4.23%

-$0.03

$0.84

-12.55%

$0.67

9.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.733

$0.766

-4.38%

-$0.03

$0.84

-12.46%

$0.67

8.75%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.181

$0.188

-3.26%

-$0.01

$0.20

-8.15%

$0.22

-17.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.537

$1.590

-3.33%

-$0.05

$1.62

-4.86%

$1.39

10.69%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.833

$0.856

-2.68%

-$0.02

$0.95

-12.15%

$0.76

9.95%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.805

$6.000

-3.26%

-$0.20

$6.08

-4.53%

$5.04

15.27%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.453

$5.551

-1.76%

-$0.10

$5.75

-5.18%

$4.76

14.68%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$79.00

$81.93

-3.71%

-$2.93

$84.61

-6.63%

$67.89

16.36%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$83.77

$86.70

-3.49%

-$2.92

$89.35

-6.24%

$72.12

16.16%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$12.20

-$12.40

-1.64%

$0.20

-$12.45

-2.01%

-$12.30

-0.83%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$83.77

$84.67

-1.08%

-$0.90

$84.53

-0.90%

$71.18

17.68%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$81.57

$82.32

-0.92%

-$0.75

$82.25

-0.83%

$65.60

24.34%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$82.06

$82.70

-0.78%

-$0.64

$83.28

-1.46%

$65.96

24.42%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$81.77

$84.70

-3.58%

-$2.92

$87.35

-6.39%

$73.86

10.70%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.46

$2.52

-2.50%

-$0.06

$2.72

-9.70%

$2.32

6.17%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.58

$2.68

-3.80%

-$0.10

$2.73

-5.63%

$2.19

17.86%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.48

$2.58

-3.95%

-$0.10

$2.63

-5.85%

$2.09

18.72%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.48

-1.33%

-$0.03

$2.69

-9.18%

$2.12

15.55%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.72

$1.72

-0.41%

-$0.01

$1.68

2.08%

$1.59

7.79%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$722.02

$731.88

-1.35%

-$9.86

$797.58

-9.47%

$641.26

12.59%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$99.72

$100.40

-0.68%

-$0.68

$106.67

-6.51%

$90.46

10.23%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

57.38%

55.81%

2.81%

1.57%

51.60%

11.20%

50.67%

13.24%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

69.55%

70.44%

-1.26%

-0.89%

50.19%

38.57%

52.91%

31.45%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

269.46%

264.36%

1.93%

5.10%

117.17%

129.97%

63.16%

326.63%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

66.16%

64.54%

2.51%

1.62%

54.88%

20.55%

50.46%

31.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

53.47%

60.22%

-11.21%

-6.75%

48.89%

9.37%

46.17%

15.81%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

83.86%

84.64%

-0.92%

-0.78%

20.70%

305.12%

49.10%

70.79%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

44.38%

160.30%

-72.31%

-115.92%

189.95%

-76.64%

79.17%

-43.94%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 28.91

EUR 29.37

-1.57%

-EUR 0.46

EUR 26.00

11.18%

EUR 53.72

-46.19%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 69.99

GBP 72.35

-3.26%

-GBP 2.36

GBP 63.50

10.22%

GBP 135.73

-48.44%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 65.80

EUR 67.24

-2.15%

-EUR 1.45

EUR 55.18

19.24%

EUR 121.99

-46.06%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 60.81

GBP 63.62

-4.42%

-GBP 2.81

GBP 56.97

6.73%

GBP 127.38

-52.26%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 39.08

EUR 38.42

1.71%

EUR 0.66

EUR 35.38

10.46%

EUR 120.10

-67.46%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 86.55

EUR 88.31

-2.00%

-EUR 1.76

EUR 82.34

5.11%

EUR 135.22

-35.99%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.12

$10.40

-2.73%

-$0.28

$9.20

9.99%

$16.52

-38.75%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/1/24

4/30/24

% Change

Change

4/3/24

% Change

5/2/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$28.91

$29.37

-1.57%

-$0.46

$26.00

11.18%

$53.72

-46.19%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$69.99

$72.35

-3.26%

-$2.36

$63.50

10.22%

$135.73

-48.44%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$65.80

$67.24

-2.15%

-$1.45

$55.18

19.24%

$121.99

-46.06%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$60.81

$63.62

-4.42%

-$2.81

$56.97

6.73%

$127.38

-52.26%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$39.08

$38.42

1.71%

$0.66

$35.38

10.46%

$120.10

-67.46%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$86.55

$88.31

-2.00%

-$1.76

$82.34

5.11%

$135.22

-35.99%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.12

$10.40

-2.73%

-$0.28

$9.20

9.99%

$16.52

-38.75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

1

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-2

0

7

0

3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

15

-5

-6

149

-25

-90

-14.00%

-38.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-1

6

40

-12

-7

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

32

4

15

195

34

-17

21.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

-2

0

18

-26

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-4

0

0

-18

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

7

-3

1

54

-6

-21

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

139

24

24

5,493

-762

120

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

113

18

20

5,009

-642

142

-11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

109

11

-33

5,228

-977

-339

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

88

0

-59

5,456

-1,038

-893

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

45

14

7

2,426

-363

44

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

50

12

-18

3,055

-471

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

22

9

-15

2,053

-223

-28

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

73

-13

-26

4,603

-281

-655

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

66

5

29

2,868

-93

-497

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

75

9

-4

3,812

-512

-202

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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