Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-03-2024

May 3, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 11:57 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.152

$2.035

5.75%

$0.117

142,859

 

 

WTI

$78.41

$78.95

-0.68%

-$0.54

223,139

 

 

Brent

$83.21

$83.67

-0.55%

-$0.46

23,792

 

 

ULSD

$2.452

$2.443

0.38%

$0.009

25,295

 

 

RBOB

$2.562

$2.596

-1.32%

-$0.034

43,797

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.18

$5.19

-0.19%

-$0.01

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.46

$27.66

-0.72%

-$0.20

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$31.97

$35.30

-9.42%

-$3.33

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

04/26/24

613

-6

-142

04/29/23

 

 

Canada

04/26/24

118

-9

25

04/29/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/23/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,395

96,922

96,943

-21

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,896

85,538

85,639

-101

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

370,039

348,931

356,167

-7,236

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

167,796

146,921

137,793

9,128

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

140,432

131,056

132,766

-1,710

 

 

NYM Ethanol

39,746

39,083

39,424

-341

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,172

155,170

155,655

-485

 

 

RBOB

416,152

387,965

400,617

-12,652

 

 

HSC Basis

836,488

827,498

830,284

-2,786

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/26/19

 

 

 

4/26/24

4/19/24

Net Change

% Change

4/28/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

425

408

17

4.17%

410

3.66%

340

25.15%

 

 

Midwest

564

551

13

2.36%

481

17.26%

413

36.43%

 

 

Mountain

182

173

9

5.20%

95

91.58%

99

83.10%

 

 

Pacific

240

235

5

2.13%

100

140.00%

176

36.36%

 

 

South

1,073

1,057

16

1.51%

977

9.83%

845

26.92%

 

 

    Salt

314

309

5

1.62%

278

12.95%

266

18.05%

 

 

    Non_Salt

759

749

10

1.34%

699

8.58%

579

31.00%

 

 

Total

2,484

2,425

59

2.43%

2,063

20.41%

1,874

32.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$36.58

$39.65

-7.75%

-$3.07

$41.15

-11.10%

$45.15

-18.99%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$80.03

$77.54

3.21%

$2.49

$58.56

36.65%

$42.37

88.86%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$25.77

$24.50

5.18%

$1.27

$30.75

-16.20%

$53.54

-51.87%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$42.43

$42.06

0.88%

$0.37

$43.16

-1.70%

$48.40

-12.34%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$35.55

$35.01

1.56%

$0.55

$43.14

-17.59%

$45.43

-21.74%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$34.50

$34.50

0.00%

$0.00

$46.87

-26.39%

$53.50

-35.52%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$33.08

$35.20

-6.03%

-$2.12

$37.76

-12.42%

$45.58

-27.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.035

$1.932

5.33%

$0.10

$2.00

1.90%

$3.22

-36.82%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.193

-$0.215

-10.05%

$0.02

-$0.20

-1.13%

-$0.39

-50.70%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.229

-$0.270

18.13%

$0.04

-$0.20

17.02%

-$0.24

-4.94%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.445

-$1.424

-1.43%

-$0.02

-$1.25

15.99%

-$1.39

4.14%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.057

-$0.085

33.25%

$0.03

$0.43

-113.11%

-$0.27

-79.21%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.090

-$1.065

2.32%

-$0.02

-$0.80

35.73%

-$1.25

-12.82%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.397

-$0.412

-3.52%

$0.01

-$0.17

129.01%

-$0.10

297.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.720

$0.732

-1.70%

-$0.01

$0.84

-13.90%

$0.65

11.59%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.714

$0.733

-2.56%

-$0.02

$0.84

-14.73%

$0.65

10.58%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.184

$0.181

1.27%

$0.00

$0.20

-6.99%

$0.22

-15.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.530

$1.537

-0.47%

-$0.01

$1.64

-6.91%

$1.31

16.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.804

$0.833

-3.47%

-$0.03

$0.96

-16.21%

$0.73

10.49%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.801

$5.805

-0.06%

$0.00

$6.06

-4.26%

$4.73

22.69%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.410

$5.453

-0.78%

-$0.04

$5.73

-5.57%

$4.60

17.65%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$78.95

$79.00

-0.06%

-$0.05

$85.81

-7.99%

$65.84

19.91%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$84.00

$83.77

0.27%

$0.22

$90.65

-7.34%

$70.02

19.96%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$11.82

-$12.20

-3.22%

$0.38

-$12.45

-5.07%

-$12.94

-8.65%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$81.05

$83.77

-3.35%

-$2.71

$84.53

-4.11%

$67.49

20.09%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$78.80

$81.57

-3.51%

-$2.76

$82.25

-4.19%

$63.64

23.83%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$79.56

$82.06

-3.14%

-$2.50

$83.28

-4.46%

$63.99

24.34%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$82.00

$81.77

0.27%

$0.22

$88.65

-7.50%

$68.42

19.84%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.46

-0.57%

-$0.01

$2.74

-10.86%

$2.22

10.04%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.59

$2.58

0.43%

$0.01

$2.77

-6.39%

$2.12

22.22%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.49

$2.48

0.44%

$0.01

$2.67

-6.63%

$2.02

23.32%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.39

$2.44

-2.41%

-$0.06

$2.64

-9.79%

$2.03

17.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.74

$1.72

1.46%

$0.02

$1.70

2.35%

$1.60

9.09%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$705.02

$722.02

-2.35%

-$17.00

$785.35

-10.23%

$595.45

18.40%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.33

$99.72

-3.40%

-$3.39

$106.16

-9.26%

$86.24

11.71%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

51.31%

57.38%

-10.58%

-6.07%

52.45%

-2.17%

49.78%

3.07%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

65.41%

69.55%

-5.95%

-4.14%

51.61%

26.74%

52.27%

25.14%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

248.28%

269.46%

-7.86%

-21.18%

120.74%

105.63%

57.35%

332.92%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

65.02%

66.16%

-1.72%

-1.14%

55.66%

16.82%

50.72%

28.19%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

53.67%

53.47%

0.37%

0.20%

53.59%

0.15%

46.65%

15.05%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

86.96%

83.86%

3.70%

3.10%

22.53%

285.97%

44.39%

95.90%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

115.19%

44.38%

159.55%

70.81%

181.40%

-36.50%

79.25%

45.35%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 30.89

EUR 28.91

6.84%

EUR 1.98

EUR 26.13

18.21%

EUR 52.96

-41.68%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 75.39

GBP 69.99

7.72%

GBP 5.41

GBP 64.24

17.37%

GBP 137.43

-45.14%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 70.66

EUR 65.80

7.39%

EUR 4.87

EUR 56.33

25.43%

EUR 119.80

-41.02%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 65.60

GBP 60.81

7.88%

GBP 4.79

GBP 57.92

13.27%

GBP 119.05

-44.89%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 41.95

EUR 39.08

7.35%

EUR 2.87

EUR 39.00

7.57%

EUR 114.60

-63.39%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 88.72

EUR 86.55

2.51%

EUR 2.17

EUR 83.09

6.77%

EUR 137.20

-35.34%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.69

$10.12

5.61%

$0.57

$9.35

14.30%

$15.86

-32.61%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/2/24

5/1/24

% Change

Change

4/4/24

% Change

5/3/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$30.89

$28.91

6.84%

$1.98

$26.13

18.21%

$52.96

-41.68%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$75.39

$69.99

7.72%

$5.41

$64.24

17.37%

$137.43

-45.14%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$70.66

$65.80

7.39%

$4.87

$56.33

25.43%

$119.80

-41.02%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$65.60

$60.81

7.88%

$4.79

$57.92

13.27%

$119.05

-44.89%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$41.95

$39.08

7.35%

$2.87

$39.00

7.57%

$114.60

-63.39%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$88.72

$86.55

2.51%

$2.17

$83.09

6.77%

$137.20

-35.34%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.69

$10.12

5.61%

$0.57

$9.35

14.30%

$15.86

-32.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

-9

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

1

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

-2

0

7

0

3

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

15

-5

-6

149

-25

-90

-14.00%

-38.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-1

6

40

-12

-7

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

32

4

15

195

34

-17

21.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

-2

0

18

-26

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-4

0

0

-18

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

7

-3

1

54

-6

-21

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04/27/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

139

24

24

5,493

-762

120

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

113

18

20

5,009

-642

142

-11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E N Central

109

11

-33

5,228

-977

-339

-16.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W N Central

88

0

-59

5,456

-1,038

-893

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

45

14

7

2,426

-363

44

-13.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

50

12

-18

3,055

-471

39

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

W S Central

22

9

-15

2,053

-223

-28

-10.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

73

-13

-26

4,603

-281

-655

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

66

5

29

2,868

-93

-497

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

75

9

-4

3,812

-512

-202

-12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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