Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-06-2024

May 6, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:42 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.212

$2.142

3.27%

$0.070

51,496

 

 

WTI

$78.59

$78.11

0.61%

$0.48

92,253

 

 

Brent

$83.39

$82.96

0.52%

$0.43

6,496

 

 

ULSD

$2.439

$2.443

-0.17%

-$0.004

8,653

 

 

RBOB

$2.574

$2.555

0.75%

$0.019

10,505

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.20

$5.20

0.00%

$0.00

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.44

$27.38

0.20%

$0.06

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.70

$32.00

14.71%

$4.71

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/03/24

605

-8

-143

05/06/23

 

 

Canada

05/03/24

120

2

27

05/06/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/30/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,742

100,252

100,285

-33

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,331

87,972

88,084

-112

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,799

335,706

342,298

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

173,697

155,383

145,448

9,935

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

142,623

133,354

134,137

-783

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,165

39,510

39,833

-323

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,721

159,696

160,154

-458

 

 

RBOB

415,591

388,197

400,117

-11,920

 

 

HSC Basis

852,306

843,730

846,984

-3,254

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/26/19

 

 

 

4/26/24

4/19/24

Net Change

% Change

4/28/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

425

408

17

4.17%

410

3.66%

340

25.15%

 

 

Midwest

564

551

13

2.36%

481

17.26%

413

36.43%

 

 

Mountain

182

173

9

5.20%

95

91.58%

99

83.10%

 

 

Pacific

240

235

5

2.13%

100

140.00%

176

36.36%

 

 

South

1,073

1,057

16

1.51%

977

9.83%

845

26.92%

 

 

    Salt

314

309

5

1.62%

278

12.95%

266

18.05%

 

 

    Non_Salt

759

749

10

1.34%

699

8.58%

579

31.00%

 

 

Total

2,484

2,425

59

2.43%

2,063

20.41%

1,874

32.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$41.46

$36.58

13.34%

$4.88

$41.18

0.68%

$44.66

-7.16%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$77.19

$80.03

-3.54%

-$2.83

$57.68

33.83%

$40.67

89.82%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$27.00

$25.77

4.78%

$1.23

$31.08

-13.13%

$52.49

-48.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$45.39

$42.43

6.97%

$2.96

$43.38

4.62%

$47.89

-5.23%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$36.02

$35.55

1.33%

$0.47

$42.67

-15.58%

$44.85

-19.68%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$37.19

$34.50

7.79%

$2.69

$47.45

-21.63%

$48.97

-24.06%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$37.36

$33.08

12.95%

$4.28

$39.20

-4.70%

$44.36

-15.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.142

$2.035

5.26%

$0.11

$2.01

6.57%

$3.20

-32.98%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.209

-$0.193

8.17%

-$0.02

-$0.21

0.53%

-$0.40

-47.69%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.248

-$0.229

-7.70%

-$0.02

-$0.19

28.23%

-$0.25

-0.08%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.454

-$1.445

-0.63%

-$0.01

-$1.40

3.69%

-$1.38

5.33%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.100

-$0.057

-75.97%

-$0.04

$0.44

-122.54%

-$0.27

-63.72%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.116

-$1.090

2.36%

-$0.03

-$0.78

43.82%

-$1.27

-12.21%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.387

-$0.397

-2.67%

$0.01

-$0.17

127.22%

-$0.10

280.41%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.692

$0.720

-3.82%

-$0.03

$0.84

-17.81%

$0.66

5.12%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.693

$0.714

-2.98%

-$0.02

$0.84

-17.82%

$0.65

6.45%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.186

$0.184

1.36%

$0.00

$0.20

-4.52%

$0.23

-17.42%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.530

$1.530

0.00%

$0.00

$1.65

-6.99%

$1.33

15.15%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.793

$0.804

-1.42%

-$0.01

$0.96

-17.39%

$0.73

7.95%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.780

$5.801

-0.37%

-$0.02

$6.14

-5.81%

$4.78

21.00%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.410

$5.410

-0.01%

$0.00

$5.80

-6.79%

$4.57

18.28%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$78.11

$78.95

-1.08%

-$0.84

$86.10

-9.28%

$65.40

19.43%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$83.23

$84.00

-0.92%

-$0.77

$91.17

-8.71%

$69.75

19.32%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$11.87

-$11.82

0.40%

-$0.05

-$12.45

-4.68%

-$13.67

-13.18%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$81.16

$81.05

0.13%

$0.11

$84.53

-3.99%

$69.25

17.20%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$78.82

$78.80

0.02%

$0.02

$82.25

-4.17%

$63.57

23.99%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$79.54

$79.56

-0.03%

-$0.03

$83.28

-4.49%

$63.78

24.70%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$81.23

$82.00

-0.95%

-$0.77

$89.17

-8.91%

$70.29

15.56%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.44

-0.16%

$0.00

$2.75

-11.11%

$2.23

9.31%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.55

$2.59

-1.51%

-$0.04

$2.75

-7.30%

$2.14

19.42%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.45

$2.49

-1.57%

-$0.04

$2.65

-7.58%

$2.04

20.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.39

0.96%

$0.02

$2.70

-10.65%

$2.04

18.32%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.75

$1.74

0.29%

$0.00

$1.71

2.05%

$1.57

11.29%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$709.99

$705.02

0.71%

$4.98

$803.71

-11.66%

$602.59

17.82%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.67

$96.33

-0.69%

-$0.66

$107.38

-10.90%

$87.00

9.97%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

51.60%

51.31%

0.57%

0.29%

52.71%

-2.11%

51.12%

0.94%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

63.05%

65.41%

-3.61%

-2.36%

52.94%

19.10%

54.62%

15.43%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

246.21%

248.28%

-0.83%

-2.07%

157.46%

56.36%

61.35%

301.32%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

62.81%

65.02%

-3.40%

-2.21%

55.24%

13.70%

52.26%

20.19%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

59.32%

53.67%

10.53%

5.65%

54.38%

9.08%

46.23%

28.31%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

76.25%

86.96%

-12.32%

-10.71%

16.57%

360.17%

49.63%

53.64%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

159.20%

115.19%

38.21%

44.01%

251.24%

-36.63%

76.12%

109.14%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 30.07

EUR 30.89

-2.64%

-EUR 0.82

EUR 27.00

11.37%

EUR 52.32

-42.52%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 73.30

GBP 75.39

-2.78%

-GBP 2.09

GBP 66.14

10.83%

GBP 128.05

-42.76%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 69.90

EUR 70.66

-1.07%

-EUR 0.76

EUR 58.24

20.02%

EUR 115.98

-39.73%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 63.77

GBP 65.60

-2.79%

-GBP 1.83

GBP 57.78

10.36%

GBP 118.67

-46.26%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 40.60

EUR 41.95

-3.23%

-EUR 1.35

EUR 39.14

3.74%

EUR 112.26

-63.84%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 89.20

EUR 88.72

0.54%

EUR 0.48

EUR 84.84

5.14%

EUR 130.63

-31.71%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.59

$10.69

-0.89%

-$0.09

$9.38

12.99%

$16.08

-34.11%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/3/24

5/2/24

% Change

Change

4/5/24

% Change

5/4/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$30.07

$30.89

-2.64%

-$0.82

$27.00

11.37%

$52.32

-42.52%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$73.30

$75.39

-2.78%

-$2.09

$66.14

10.83%

$128.05

-42.76%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$69.90

$70.66

-1.07%

-$0.76

$58.24

20.02%

$115.98

-39.73%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$63.77

$65.60

-2.79%

-$1.83

$57.78

10.36%

$118.67

-46.26%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$40.60

$41.95

-3.23%

-$1.35

$39.14

3.74%

$112.26

-63.84%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$89.20

$88.72

0.54%

$0.48

$84.84

5.14%

$130.63

-31.71%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.59

$10.69

-0.89%

-$0.09

$9.38

12.99%

$16.08

-34.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/04/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

5

4

5

5

4

-4

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

4

2

4

4

0

1

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

9

-3

4

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

41

16

21

190

-9

-67

-5.00%

-26.00%

 

 

E S Central

41

27

39

82

16

32

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

55

19

29

250

53

5

27.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

-4

-5

27

-30

-6

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

0

-24

-1

NA

NA

 

 

United States

18

6

10

72

-1

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/04/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

79

-19

-30

5,572

-780

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

40

-39

-68

5,049

-681

77

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-54

-90

5,257

-1,031

-422

-16.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

65

-8

-29

5,521

-1,046

-916

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-18

-34

2,432

-382

8

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

-27

-51

3,058

-498

-15

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-7

-19

2,055

-230

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

80

5

31

4,683

-276

-624

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

63

8

5

2,931

-84

-505

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

35

-20

-36

3,848

-531

-238

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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