Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-07-2024

May 7, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.188

$2.195

-0.32%

-$0.007

31,561

 

 

WTI

$78.18

$78.48

-0.38%

-$0.30

71,300

 

 

Brent

$83.02

$83.33

-0.37%

-$0.31

8,220

 

 

ULSD

$2.450

$2.461

-0.46%

-$0.011

6,155

 

 

RBOB

$2.566

$2.588

-0.85%

-$0.022

6,483

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.16

$5.19

-0.58%

-$0.03

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.56

$28.07

-1.82%

-$0.51

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.97

$36.76

0.56%

$0.20

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/03/24

605

-8

-143

05/06/23

 

 

Canada

05/03/24

120

2

27

05/06/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 4/30/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,742

100,252

100,285

-33

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,331

87,972

88,084

-112

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

355,799

335,706

342,298

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

173,697

155,383

145,448

9,935

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

142,623

133,354

134,137

-783

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,165

39,510

39,833

-323

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,721

159,696

160,154

-458

 

 

RBOB

415,591

388,197

400,117

-11,920

 

 

HSC Basis

852,306

843,730

846,984

-3,254

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

04/26/19

 

 

 

4/26/24

4/19/24

Net Change

% Change

4/28/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

425

408

17

4.17%

410

3.66%

340

25.15%

 

 

Midwest

564

551

13

2.36%

481

17.26%

413

36.43%

 

 

Mountain

182

173

9

5.20%

95

91.58%

99

83.10%

 

 

Pacific

240

235

5

2.13%

100

140.00%

176

36.36%

 

 

South

1,073

1,057

16

1.51%

977

9.83%

845

26.92%

 

 

    Salt

314

309

5

1.62%

278

12.95%

266

18.05%

 

 

    Non_Salt

759

749

10

1.34%

699

8.58%

579

31.00%

 

 

Total

2,484

2,425

59

2.43%

2,063

20.41%

1,874

32.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$41.64

$41.46

0.43%

$0.18

$43.84

-5.02%

$44.35

-6.12%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$76.29

$77.19

-1.17%

-$0.90

$62.79

21.50%

$45.77

66.68%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$28.00

$27.00

3.70%

$1.00

$33.00

-15.15%

$54.00

-48.15%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$43.83

$45.39

-3.43%

-$1.56

$46.41

-5.56%

$47.61

-7.95%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$36.48

$36.02

1.25%

$0.45

$45.42

-19.70%

$44.90

-18.77%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$41.53

$37.19

11.68%

$4.34

$50.06

-17.03%

$51.25

-18.97%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$35.72

$37.36

-4.38%

-$1.64

$41.40

-13.72%

$45.34

-21.22%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.195

$2.142

2.47%

$0.05

$2.05

7.02%

$3.21

-31.53%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.223

-$0.209

6.55%

-$0.01

-$0.23

-2.11%

-$0.41

-45.43%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.256

-$0.248

-3.13%

-$0.01

-$0.21

23.43%

-$0.26

-0.81%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.522

-$1.454

-4.68%

-$0.07

-$1.45

4.60%

-$1.38

10.29%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.156

-$0.100

-56.22%

-$0.06

$0.43

-136.41%

-$0.26

-40.18%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.186

-$1.116

6.36%

-$0.07

-$0.86

37.97%

-$1.30

-8.77%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.380

-$0.387

-1.68%

$0.01

-$0.16

130.44%

-$0.10

295.83%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.685

$0.692

-1.08%

-$0.01

$0.83

-17.46%

$0.69

-0.46%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.683

$0.693

-1.45%

-$0.01

$0.84

-18.26%

$0.69

-0.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.188

$0.186

0.74%

$0.00

$0.20

-5.01%

$0.22

-15.35%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.530

$1.530

0.00%

$0.00

$1.61

-5.15%

$1.32

15.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.773

$0.793

-2.52%

-$0.02

$0.94

-17.84%

$0.78

-1.30%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.846

$5.780

1.14%

$0.07

$6.10

-4.12%

$4.97

17.57%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.471

$5.410

1.12%

$0.06

$5.79

-5.49%

$4.64

17.78%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jun-24

$78.48

$78.11

0.47%

$0.37

$85.53

-8.24%

$67.60

16.09%

 

 

Brent

Jun-24

$83.59

$83.23

0.43%

$0.36

$90.38

-7.51%

$72.01

16.08%

 

 

WCS

Jun-24

-$11.85

-$11.87

-0.18%

$0.02

-$12.45

-4.85%

-$12.87

-7.93%

 

 

LLS

Jun-24

$80.43

$81.16

-0.91%

-$0.73

$84.53

-4.85%

$69.93

15.01%

 

 

Mars

Jun-24

$78.33

$78.82

-0.63%

-$0.49

$82.25

-4.76%

$65.20

20.14%

 

 

Sour

Jun-24

$78.91

$79.54

-0.79%

-$0.62

$83.28

-5.24%

$65.46

20.56%

 

 

ESPO

Jun-24

$81.59

$81.23

0.44%

$0.36

$88.38

-7.68%

$70.96

14.97%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.46

$2.44

0.98%

$0.02

$2.72

-9.54%

$2.30

7.22%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.58

$2.55

1.25%

$0.03

$2.73

-5.52%

$2.19

18.04%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.48

$2.45

1.31%

$0.03

$2.63

-5.73%

$2.09

18.91%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.41

0.08%

$0.00

$2.63

-8.40%

$2.10

15.08%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.76

$1.75

0.69%

$0.01

$1.72

2.15%

$1.58

10.99%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$713.24

$709.99

0.46%

$3.25

$788.64

-9.56%

$612.53

16.44%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.85

$95.67

0.19%

$0.18

$107.11

-10.52%

$86.96

10.22%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

53.12%

51.60%

2.95%

1.52%

53.51%

-0.73%

47.56%

11.69%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

64.32%

63.05%

2.01%

1.27%

53.93%

19.27%

49.87%

28.98%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

244.04%

246.21%

-0.88%

-2.17%

143.12%

70.51%

58.84%

314.75%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

65.59%

62.81%

4.43%

2.78%

55.51%

18.16%

47.89%

36.96%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

58.58%

59.32%

-1.25%

-0.74%

52.68%

11.20%

46.36%

26.36%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

55.65%

76.25%

-27.02%

-20.60%

26.75%

108.04%

49.44%

12.56%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

139.07%

159.20%

-12.64%

-20.13%

218.39%

-36.32%

76.03%

82.91%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 31.83

EUR 30.07

5.84%

EUR 1.76

EUR 27.97

13.80%

EUR 52.33

-39.18%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 77.64

GBP 73.30

5.92%

GBP 4.34

GBP 68.41

13.49%

GBP 130.30

-40.42%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 72.74

EUR 69.90

4.06%

EUR 2.84

EUR 61.29

18.68%

EUR 118.56

-38.65%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 67.77

GBP 63.77

6.27%

GBP 4.00

GBP 62.34

8.71%

GBP 118.79

-42.95%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 46.28

EUR 40.60

14.00%

EUR 5.68

EUR 40.85

13.30%

EUR 113.25

-59.14%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 95.16

EUR 89.20

6.68%

EUR 5.96

EUR 88.35

7.70%

EUR 133.30

-28.61%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.91

$10.59

2.95%

$0.31

$10.02

8.84%

$15.25

-28.48%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/6/24

5/3/24

% Change

Change

4/8/24

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$31.83

$30.07

5.84%

$1.76

$27.97

13.80%

$52.33

-39.18%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$77.64

$73.30

5.92%

$4.34

$68.41

13.49%

$130.30

-40.42%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$72.74

$69.90

4.06%

$2.84

$61.29

18.68%

$118.56

-38.65%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$67.77

$63.77

6.27%

$4.00

$62.34

8.71%

$118.79

-42.95%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$46.28

$40.60

14.00%

$5.68

$40.85

13.30%

$113.25

-59.14%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$95.16

$89.20

6.68%

$5.96

$88.35

7.70%

$133.30

-28.61%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.91

$10.59

2.95%

$0.31

$10.02

8.84%

$15.25

-28.48%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/04/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-2

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

5

4

5

5

4

-4

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

4

2

4

4

0

1

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

2

-3

1

9

-3

4

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

41

16

21

190

-9

-67

-5.00%

-26.00%

 

 

E S Central

41

27

39

82

16

32

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

55

19

29

250

53

5

27.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

-4

-5

27

-30

-6

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-6

-1

0

-24

-1

NA

NA

 

 

United States

18

6

10

72

-1

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/04/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

79

-19

-30

5,572

-780

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

40

-39

-68

5,049

-681

77

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-54

-90

5,257

-1,031

-422

-16.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

65

-8

-29

5,521

-1,046

-916

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

6

-18

-34

2,432

-382

8

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

-27

-51

3,058

-498

-15

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-7

-19

2,055

-230

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

80

5

31

4,683

-276

-624

-6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

63

8

5

2,931

-84

-505

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

35

-20

-36

3,848

-531

-238

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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