Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-13-2024

May 13, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:19 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.270

$2.252

0.80%

$0.018

31,933

 

 

WTI

$78.77

$78.26

0.65%

$0.51

62,772

 

 

Brent

$83.23

$82.79

0.53%

$0.44

8,018

 

 

ULSD

$2.442

$2.434

0.32%

$0.008

7,282

 

 

RBOB

$2.513

$2.500

0.51%

$0.013

8,372

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.85

$4.95

-2.02%

-$0.10

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.11

$26.04

0.29%

$0.07

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.27

$38.91

-6.78%

-$2.64

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/10/24

603

-2

-128

05/13/23

 

 

Canada

05/10/24

116

-4

22

05/13/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/7/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,276

93,815

93,866

-51

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,758

81,403

81,461

-58

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

359,731

339,638

346,230

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

150,745

133,093

124,762

8,331

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,001

117,375

120,274

-2,899

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,818

34,210

34,545

-335

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,058

148,045

148,606

-561

 

 

RBOB

407,977

380,070

390,132

-10,062

 

 

HSC Basis

804,147

796,090

799,242

-3,152

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/03/19

 

 

 

5/3/24

4/26/24

Net Change

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

454

425

29

6.82%

422

7.58%

359

26.53%

 

 

Midwest

584

564

20

3.55%

497

17.51%

432

35.19%

 

 

Mountain

191

182

9

4.95%

104

83.65%

105

81.56%

 

 

Pacific

246

240

6

2.50%

114

115.79%

187

31.69%

 

 

South

1,087

1,073

14

1.30%

1,002

8.48%

873

24.48%

 

 

    Salt

314

314

0

0.00%

287

9.41%

274

14.51%

 

 

    Non_Salt

773

759

14

1.84%

715

8.11%

599

29.05%

 

 

Total

2,563

2,484

79

3.18%

2,141

19.71%

1,956

31.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$41.13

$43.72

-5.93%

-$2.59

$41.97

-1.99%

$45.95

-10.49%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$88.70

$88.01

0.78%

$0.69

$63.64

39.37%

$41.55

113.48%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$28.19

$29.90

-5.69%

-$1.70

$26.26

7.36%

$54.10

-47.89%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$43.34

$44.78

-3.23%

-$1.45

$43.28

0.14%

$49.22

-11.95%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$36.93

$36.89

0.10%

$0.04

$39.12

-5.59%

$45.36

-18.58%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$49.00

$47.43

3.31%

$1.57

$41.25

18.79%

$54.30

-9.77%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$35.46

$36.65

-3.25%

-$1.19

$36.87

-3.83%

$46.30

-23.42%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.252

$2.301

-2.13%

-$0.05

$2.03

10.99%

$3.14

-28.21%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.264

-$0.241

9.15%

-$0.02

-$0.24

10.81%

-$0.40

-33.88%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.298

-$0.277

-6.76%

-$0.02

-$0.23

28.96%

-$0.26

13.98%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.533

-$1.485

-3.21%

-$0.05

-$1.54

-0.67%

-$1.37

11.98%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.213

-$0.177

-20.60%

-$0.04

$0.14

-256.00%

-$0.26

-17.11%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.270

-$1.214

4.58%

-$0.06

-$0.97

31.18%

-$1.30

-2.01%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.369

-$0.341

8.39%

-$0.03

-$0.27

36.98%

-$0.06

469.03%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.693

$0.696

-0.54%

$0.00

$0.80

-12.90%

$0.67

3.75%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.695

$0.694

0.17%

$0.00

$0.80

-13.39%

$0.66

5.95%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.191

$0.190

0.75%

$0.00

$0.20

-2.50%

$0.22

-14.11%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.497

$1.509

-0.75%

-$0.01

$1.63

-7.88%

$1.38

8.63%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.788

$0.791

-0.45%

$0.00

$0.91

-13.80%

$0.75

4.34%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.850

$5.839

0.19%

$0.01

$6.02

-2.83%

$4.95

18.15%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.370

$5.369

0.01%

$0.00

$5.73

-6.30%

$4.68

14.68%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$77.84

$78.80

-1.23%

-$0.96

$84.40

-7.77%

$67.31

15.64%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$82.79

$83.88

-1.32%

-$1.09

$89.53

-7.53%

$71.72

15.44%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.40

-$11.10

2.63%

-$0.30

-$10.94

4.20%

-$13.17

-13.45%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$80.89

$80.65

0.29%

$0.24

$85.82

-5.75%

$70.20

15.22%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$78.74

$78.55

0.24%

$0.19

$83.93

-6.19%

$65.35

20.48%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.83

$78.59

0.30%

$0.24

$84.57

-6.79%

$65.56

20.24%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$80.79

$81.88

-1.35%

-$1.09

$87.53

-7.70%

$71.04

13.73%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.43

$2.48

-1.89%

-$0.05

$2.69

-9.42%

$2.31

5.37%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.53

$2.54

-0.59%

-$0.01

$2.77

-8.73%

$2.20

15.06%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.43

$2.44

-0.61%

-$0.02

$2.67

-9.06%

$2.10

15.78%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.39

$2.40

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.66

-10.20%

$2.15

11.08%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.82

$1.81

0.55%

$0.01

$1.69

7.58%

$1.60

13.42%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$713.94

$722.59

-1.20%

-$8.65

$792.76

-9.94%

$634.76

12.47%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$98.90

$97.59

1.35%

$1.32

$106.17

-6.84%

$89.81

10.12%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

53.66%

50.87%

5.48%

2.79%

54.91%

-2.28%

47.89%

12.05%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

64.53%

61.67%

4.64%

2.86%

76.10%

-15.20%

50.13%

28.73%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

240.38%

227.60%

5.62%

12.78%

157.99%

52.15%

61.14%

293.16%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

62.94%

59.98%

4.93%

2.96%

56.77%

10.87%

48.09%

30.88%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

57.72%

55.80%

3.44%

1.92%

56.90%

1.44%

46.46%

24.24%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

41.36%

33.78%

22.44%

7.58%

89.93%

-54.01%

45.37%

-8.84%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

221.53%

229.66%

-3.54%

-8.13%

242.66%

-8.71%

80.31%

175.84%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.87

EUR 30.97

-3.56%

-EUR 1.10

EUR 30.93

-3.42%

EUR 53.74

-44.42%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 72.68

GBP 75.83

-4.15%

-GBP 3.15

GBP 75.55

-3.80%

GBP 134.03

-45.77%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 68.83

EUR 71.80

-4.15%

-EUR 2.98

EUR 69.82

-1.42%

EUR 124.11

-44.55%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 65.06

GBP 66.77

-2.56%

-GBP 1.71

GBP 67.15

-3.12%

GBP 124.95

-47.94%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 49.64

EUR 47.96

3.50%

EUR 1.68

EUR 46.94

5.75%

EUR 115.80

-57.14%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 90.59

EUR 93.35

-2.96%

-EUR 2.76

EUR 91.12

-0.58%

EUR 138.53

-34.60%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.17

$10.59

-4.01%

-$0.43

$10.06

1.08%

$16.33

-37.75%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/10/24

5/9/24

% Change

Change

4/12/24

% Change

5/11/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.87

$30.97

-3.56%

-$1.10

$30.93

-3.42%

$53.74

-44.42%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$72.68

$75.83

-4.15%

-$3.15

$75.55

-3.80%

$134.03

-45.77%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$68.83

$71.80

-4.15%

-$2.98

$69.82

-1.42%

$124.11

-44.55%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$65.06

$66.77

-2.56%

-$1.71

$67.15

-3.12%

$124.95

-47.94%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$49.64

$47.96

3.50%

$1.68

$46.94

5.75%

$115.80

-57.14%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$90.59

$93.35

-2.96%

-$2.76

$91.12

-0.58%

$138.53

-34.60%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.17

$10.59

-4.01%

-$0.43

$10.06

1.08%

$16.33

-37.75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

3

4

9

7

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-5

-2

6

-4

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

3

-5

-21

11

-9

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

53

23

16

243

14

-56

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

49

28

11

131

44

38

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

70

25

-1

319

77

1

32.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-8

1

33

-39

-7

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

22

7

2

94

6

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

76

-5

15

5,648

-785

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

52

-12

4

5,101

-694

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

44

-25

5

5,301

-1,056

-411

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-13

22

5,569

-1,058

-887

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-11

-7

2,440

-393

7

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-17

-5

3,064

-515

-13

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-4

1

2,057

-235

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

19

17

4,766

-257

-603

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

7

-21

2,986

-78

-515

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

38

-8

0

3,885

-540

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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