Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-14-2024

May 14, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:48 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.347

$2.381

-1.43%

-$0.034

23,697

 

 

WTI

$78.77

$79.12

-0.44%

-$0.35

47,011

 

 

Brent

$83.04

$83.36

-0.38%

-$0.32

6,834

 

 

ULSD

$2.426

$2.437

-0.45%

-$0.011

5,475

 

 

RBOB

$2.477

$2.510

-1.32%

-$0.033

8,507

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.74

$4.76

-0.42%

-$0.02

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.01

$25.65

-2.50%

-$0.64

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.24

$36.04

8.87%

$3.20

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/10/24

603

-2

-128

05/13/23

 

 

Canada

05/10/24

116

-4

22

05/13/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/7/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,276

93,815

93,866

-51

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,758

81,403

81,461

-58

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

359,731

339,638

346,230

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

150,745

133,093

124,762

8,331

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,001

117,375

120,274

-2,899

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,818

34,210

34,545

-335

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,058

148,045

148,606

-561

 

 

RBOB

407,977

380,070

390,132

-10,062

 

 

HSC Basis

804,147

796,090

799,242

-3,152

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/03/19

 

 

 

5/3/24

4/26/24

Net Change

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

454

425

29

6.82%

422

7.58%

359

26.53%

 

 

Midwest

584

564

20

3.55%

497

17.51%

432

35.19%

 

 

Mountain

191

182

9

4.95%

104

83.65%

105

81.56%

 

 

Pacific

246

240

6

2.50%

114

115.79%

187

31.69%

 

 

South

1,087

1,073

14

1.30%

1,002

8.48%

873

24.48%

 

 

    Salt

314

314

0

0.00%

287

9.41%

274

14.51%

 

 

    Non_Salt

773

759

14

1.84%

715

8.11%

599

29.05%

 

 

Total

2,563

2,484

79

3.18%

2,141

19.71%

1,956

31.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$44.25

$41.13

7.57%

$3.11

$40.83

8.36%

$46.19

-4.20%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$92.86

$88.70

4.69%

$4.16

$64.18

44.68%

$43.34

114.27%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$28.70

$28.19

1.80%

$0.51

$25.10

14.33%

$56.49

-49.19%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$46.50

$43.34

7.30%

$3.16

$42.19

10.21%

$49.48

-6.01%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$38.87

$36.93

5.24%

$1.94

$39.41

-1.38%

$47.19

-17.64%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$51.92

$49.00

5.96%

$2.92

$41.00

26.63%

$55.58

-6.59%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$37.45

$35.46

5.63%

$2.00

$36.13

3.68%

$46.90

-20.14%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.381

$2.252

5.73%

$0.13

$1.95

22.35%

$3.19

-25.34%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.294

-$0.264

11.42%

-$0.03

-$0.25

19.84%

-$0.39

-24.54%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.350

-$0.298

-14.93%

-$0.05

-$0.23

54.94%

-$0.24

44.33%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.600

-$1.533

-4.40%

-$0.07

-$1.58

1.32%

-$1.38

15.69%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.274

-$0.213

-28.63%

-$0.06

$0.13

-309.56%

-$0.25

9.03%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.388

-$1.270

9.31%

-$0.12

-$1.01

37.39%

-$1.20

15.54%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.371

-$0.369

0.41%

$0.00

-$0.28

32.57%

-$0.03

987.39%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.696

$0.693

0.54%

$0.00

$0.79

-12.00%

$0.66

6.19%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.695

$0.695

0.00%

$0.00

$0.80

-13.12%

$0.67

4.07%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.195

$0.191

1.91%

$0.00

$0.19

0.61%

$0.22

-12.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.498

$1.497

0.01%

$0.00

$1.62

-7.45%

$1.34

12.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.779

$0.788

-1.12%

-$0.01

$0.91

-14.37%

$0.74

5.18%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.909

$5.850

1.01%

$0.06

$5.99

-1.32%

$4.80

23.22%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.360

$5.370

-0.18%

-$0.01

$5.68

-5.59%

$4.61

16.30%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$78.60

$77.84

0.97%

$0.76

$84.20

-6.65%

$66.51

18.18%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$83.36

$82.79

0.68%

$0.57

$89.25

-6.60%

$71.72

16.23%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.70

-$11.40

2.56%

-$0.30

-$10.80

8.31%

-$12.84

-8.86%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.95

$80.89

-1.16%

-$0.93

$85.94

-6.96%

$70.77

12.97%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.80

$78.74

-1.20%

-$0.93

$83.97

-7.35%

$64.38

20.85%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$77.88

$78.83

-1.22%

-$0.95

$84.73

-8.09%

$64.66

20.44%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$81.36

$80.79

0.70%

$0.57

$87.25

-6.75%

$71.44

13.88%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.43

0.21%

$0.00

$2.66

-8.45%

$2.28

6.79%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.51

$2.53

-0.83%

-$0.02

$2.77

-9.39%

$2.16

15.90%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.43

-0.86%

-$0.02

$2.67

-9.75%

$2.06

16.67%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.59

$2.39

8.59%

$0.21

$2.62

-1.22%

$2.10

23.68%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.84

$1.82

1.10%

$0.02

$1.68

9.15%

$1.62

13.68%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$712.65

$713.94

-0.18%

-$1.29

$775.59

-8.12%

$614.09

16.05%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.90

$98.90

-3.04%

-$3.00

$103.96

-7.75%

$87.00

10.23%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

48.33%

53.66%

-9.93%

-5.33%

56.94%

-15.12%

46.23%

4.54%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

55.67%

64.53%

-13.73%

-8.86%

77.31%

-27.99%

49.19%

13.17%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

217.69%

240.38%

-9.44%

-22.69%

196.87%

10.58%

53.66%

305.68%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

55.26%

62.94%

-12.20%

-7.68%

58.84%

-6.08%

44.32%

24.68%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

60.60%

57.72%

4.99%

2.88%

56.49%

7.28%

46.48%

30.38%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

26.33%

41.36%

-36.34%

-15.03%

74.74%

-64.77%

45.45%

-42.07%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

223.47%

221.53%

0.88%

1.94%

219.87%

1.64%

80.46%

177.74%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.71

EUR 29.87

-0.56%

-EUR 0.17

EUR 31.52

-5.76%

EUR 52.36

-43.27%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 71.94

GBP 72.68

-1.02%

-GBP 0.74

GBP 77.19

-6.80%

GBP 130.71

-44.96%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 66.75

EUR 68.83

-3.01%

-EUR 2.07

EUR 71.16

-6.19%

EUR 118.56

-43.70%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 64.88

GBP 65.06

-0.27%

-GBP 0.18

GBP 68.23

-4.91%

GBP 118.55

-45.27%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 46.22

EUR 49.64

-6.89%

-EUR 3.42

EUR 39.98

15.61%

EUR 115.07

-59.84%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 91.01

EUR 90.59

0.46%

EUR 0.42

EUR 92.69

-1.82%

EUR 133.29

-31.72%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.35

$10.17

1.82%

$0.18

$10.76

-3.80%

$15.19

-31.82%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/13/24

5/10/24

% Change

Change

4/15/24

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.71

$29.87

-0.56%

-$0.17

$31.52

-5.76%

$52.36

-43.27%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$71.94

$72.68

-1.02%

-$0.74

$77.19

-6.80%

$130.71

-44.96%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$66.75

$68.83

-3.01%

-$2.07

$71.16

-6.19%

$118.56

-43.70%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$64.88

$65.06

-0.27%

-$0.18

$68.23

-4.91%

$118.55

-45.27%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$46.22

$49.64

-6.89%

-$3.42

$39.98

15.61%

$115.07

-59.84%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$91.01

$90.59

0.46%

$0.42

$92.69

-1.82%

$133.29

-31.72%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.35

$10.17

1.82%

$0.18

$10.76

-3.80%

$15.19

-31.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

3

4

9

7

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-5

-2

6

-4

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

3

-5

-21

11

-9

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

53

23

16

243

14

-56

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

49

28

11

131

44

38

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

70

25

-1

319

77

1

32.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-8

1

33

-39

-7

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

22

7

2

94

6

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

76

-5

15

5,648

-785

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

52

-12

4

5,101

-694

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

44

-25

5

5,301

-1,056

-411

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-13

22

5,569

-1,058

-887

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-11

-7

2,440

-393

7

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-17

-5

3,064

-515

-13

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-4

1

2,057

-235

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

19

17

4,766

-257

-603

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

7

-21

2,986

-78

-515

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

38

-8

0

3,885

-540

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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