Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-15-2024

May 15, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:39 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.339

$2.344

-0.21%

-$0.005

45,500

 

 

WTI

$77.37

$78.02

-0.83%

-$0.65

98,434

 

 

Brent

$81.63

$82.38

-0.91%

-$0.75

14,110

 

 

ULSD

$2.405

$2.420

-0.62%

-$0.015

7,777

 

 

RBOB

$2.458

$2.460

-0.05%

-$0.001

11,118

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.67

$4.73

-1.27%

-$0.06

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.40

$25.07

1.31%

$0.33

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.66

$39.23

-1.47%

-$0.58

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/10/24

603

-2

-128

05/13/23

 

 

Canada

05/10/24

116

-4

22

05/13/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/7/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,276

93,815

93,866

-51

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,758

81,403

81,461

-58

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

359,731

339,638

346,230

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

150,745

133,093

124,762

8,331

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,001

117,375

120,274

-2,899

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,818

34,210

34,545

-335

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,058

148,045

148,606

-561

 

 

RBOB

407,977

380,070

390,132

-10,062

 

 

HSC Basis

804,147

796,090

799,242

-3,152

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/03/19

 

 

 

5/3/24

4/26/24

Net Change

% Change

5/5/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

454

425

29

6.82%

422

7.58%

359

26.53%

 

 

Midwest

584

564

20

3.55%

497

17.51%

432

35.19%

 

 

Mountain

191

182

9

4.95%

104

83.65%

105

81.56%

 

 

Pacific

246

240

6

2.50%

114

115.79%

187

31.69%

 

 

South

1,087

1,073

14

1.30%

1,002

8.48%

873

24.48%

 

 

    Salt

314

314

0

0.00%

287

9.41%

274

14.51%

 

 

    Non_Salt

773

759

14

1.84%

715

8.11%

599

29.05%

 

 

Total

2,563

2,484

79

3.18%

2,141

19.71%

1,956

31.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$43.65

$44.25

-1.35%

-$0.60

$42.12

3.63%

$47.05

-7.22%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$95.09

$92.86

2.41%

$2.23

$63.87

48.89%

$45.41

109.40%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$26.50

$28.70

-7.67%

-$2.20

$26.50

0.00%

$52.35

-49.38%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$45.21

$46.50

-2.77%

-$1.29

$43.01

5.12%

$50.43

-10.35%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$36.82

$38.87

-5.28%

-$2.05

$39.21

-6.11%

$47.75

-22.89%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$44.39

$51.92

-14.50%

-$7.53

$42.75

3.83%

$54.04

-17.87%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$37.93

$37.45

1.27%

$0.48

$36.86

2.90%

$45.92

-17.40%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.344

$2.381

-1.55%

-$0.04

$1.99

17.91%

$3.26

-28.10%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.322

-$0.294

9.60%

-$0.03

-$0.24

31.78%

-$0.41

-21.59%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.416

-$0.350

-16.02%

-$0.07

-$0.24

74.52%

-$0.26

61.21%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.638

-$1.600

-2.39%

-$0.04

-$1.66

-1.12%

-$1.39

17.67%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.379

-$0.274

-38.34%

-$0.11

$0.13

-402.63%

-$0.25

50.36%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.561

-$1.388

12.48%

-$0.17

-$1.07

46.43%

-$1.31

19.23%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.408

-$0.371

10.17%

-$0.04

-$0.27

50.57%

-$0.01

3248.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.698

$0.696

0.18%

$0.00

$0.81

-13.63%

$0.65

7.98%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.693

$0.695

-0.35%

$0.00

$0.81

-14.37%

$0.65

6.47%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.194

$0.195

-0.62%

$0.00

$0.19

0.65%

$0.23

-15.28%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.465

$1.498

-2.18%

-$0.03

$1.64

-10.60%

$1.33

10.13%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.781

$0.779

0.33%

$0.00

$0.92

-14.71%

$0.74

5.54%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.887

$5.909

-0.37%

-$0.02

$6.03

-2.35%

$4.79

22.91%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.360

$5.360

-0.01%

$0.00

$5.72

-6.31%

$4.58

17.05%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$77.65

$78.60

-1.22%

-$0.95

$84.22

-7.80%

$67.48

15.07%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$82.38

$83.36

-1.19%

-$0.98

$89.23

-7.68%

$71.93

14.53%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.50

-$11.70

-1.74%

$0.20

-$10.80

6.46%

-$12.95

-11.19%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$80.65

$79.95

0.87%

$0.70

$85.94

-6.15%

$68.60

17.58%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$78.35

$77.80

0.70%

$0.55

$83.97

-6.70%

$64.06

22.31%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.62

$77.88

0.95%

$0.75

$84.73

-7.21%

$64.68

21.55%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$80.38

$81.36

-1.22%

-$0.98

$87.23

-7.85%

$69.22

16.13%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.42

$2.44

-0.74%

-$0.02

$2.66

-8.95%

$2.28

6.37%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.51

$2.51

0.08%

$0.00

$2.73

-8.13%

$2.15

16.58%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.41

0.08%

$0.00

$2.63

-8.43%

$2.05

17.39%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.34

$2.59

-9.76%

-$0.25

$2.62

-10.76%

$2.15

8.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.84

$1.84

0.16%

$0.00

$1.69

8.88%

$1.66

10.84%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$701.58

$712.65

-1.55%

-$11.07

$775.65

-9.55%

$625.89

12.09%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.58

$95.90

-0.33%

-$0.32

$105.05

-9.01%

$90.57

5.54%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

51.69%

48.33%

6.95%

3.36%

56.27%

-8.14%

44.41%

16.39%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

63.90%

55.67%

14.78%

8.23%

76.73%

-16.72%

46.97%

36.04%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

220.96%

217.69%

1.50%

3.27%

172.87%

27.82%

58.72%

276.29%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

62.21%

55.26%

12.58%

6.95%

60.00%

3.68%

45.37%

37.12%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

61.00%

60.60%

0.66%

0.40%

57.12%

6.79%

46.78%

30.40%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

60.77%

26.33%

130.80%

34.44%

81.32%

-25.27%

45.53%

33.47%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

247.17%

223.47%

10.61%

23.70%

194.40%

27.15%

80.61%

206.62%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.65

EUR 29.71

-0.19%

-EUR 0.06

EUR 33.55

-11.63%

EUR 48.66

-39.06%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 72.09

GBP 71.94

0.21%

GBP 0.15

GBP 83.18

-13.33%

GBP 120.90

-40.37%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 65.55

EUR 66.75

-1.80%

-EUR 1.20

EUR 75.93

-13.67%

EUR 112.68

-41.82%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 65.15

GBP 64.88

0.41%

GBP 0.27

GBP 69.92

-6.82%

GBP 110.00

-40.78%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 41.60

EUR 46.22

-9.98%

-EUR 4.61

EUR 42.60

-2.35%

EUR 108.84

-61.77%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 88.86

EUR 91.01

-2.36%

-EUR 2.15

EUR 97.93

-9.26%

EUR 122.67

-27.56%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.69

$10.35

3.30%

$0.34

$11.21

-4.59%

$14.18

-24.55%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/14/24

5/13/24

% Change

Change

4/16/24

% Change

5/15/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.65

$29.71

-0.19%

-$0.06

$33.55

-11.63%

$48.66

-39.06%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$72.09

$71.94

0.21%

$0.15

$83.18

-13.33%

$120.90

-40.37%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$65.55

$66.75

-1.80%

-$1.20

$75.93

-13.67%

$112.68

-41.82%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$65.15

$64.88

0.41%

$0.27

$69.92

-6.82%

$110.00

-40.78%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$41.60

$46.22

-9.98%

-$4.61

$42.60

-2.35%

$108.84

-61.77%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$88.86

$91.01

-2.36%

-$2.15

$97.93

-9.26%

$122.67

-27.56%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.69

$10.35

3.30%

$0.34

$11.21

-4.59%

$14.18

-24.55%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

3

4

9

7

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-5

-2

6

-4

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

3

-5

-21

11

-9

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

53

23

16

243

14

-56

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

49

28

11

131

44

38

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

70

25

-1

319

77

1

32.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-8

1

33

-39

-7

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

22

7

2

94

6

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

76

-5

15

5,648

-785

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

52

-12

4

5,101

-694

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

44

-25

5

5,301

-1,056

-411

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-13

22

5,569

-1,058

-887

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-11

-7

2,440

-393

7

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-17

-5

3,064

-515

-13

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-4

1

2,057

-235

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

19

17

4,766

-257

-603

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

7

-21

2,986

-78

-515

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

38

-8

0

3,885

-540

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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