Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-16-2024

May 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:56 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.499

$2.416

3.44%

$0.083

77,663

 

 

WTI

$79.39

$78.63

0.97%

$0.76

110,411

 

 

Brent

$83.37

$82.75

0.75%

$0.62

14,474

 

 

ULSD

$2.443

$2.423

0.82%

$0.020

14,120

 

 

RBOB

$2.534

$2.497

1.47%

$0.037

17,679

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.49

$4.59

-2.18%

-$0.10

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.13

$25.58

2.15%

$0.55

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.31

$38.48

4.75%

$1.83

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/10/24

603

-2

-128

05/13/23

 

 

Canada

05/10/24

116

-4

22

05/13/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/7/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,276

93,815

93,866

-51

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,758

81,403

81,461

-58

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

359,731

339,638

346,230

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

150,745

133,093

124,762

8,331

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,001

117,375

120,274

-2,899

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,818

34,210

34,545

-335

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,058

148,045

148,606

-561

 

 

RBOB

407,977

380,070

390,132

-10,062

 

 

HSC Basis

804,147

796,090

799,242

-3,152

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/10/19

 

 

 

5/10/24

5/3/24

Net Change

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

482

454

28

6.17%

458

5.24%

382

26.11%

 

 

Midwest

606

584

22

3.77%

520

16.54%

454

33.60%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

112

75.00%

111

76.26%

 

 

Pacific

252

246

6

2.44%

127

98.43%

198

27.53%

 

 

South

1,097

1,087

10

0.92%

1,023

7.23%

901

21.78%

 

 

    Salt

313

314

-1

-0.32%

290

7.93%

281

11.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

784

773

11

1.42%

734

6.81%

620

26.41%

 

 

Total

2,633

2,563

70

2.73%

2,240

17.54%

2,046

28.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$45.72

$43.65

4.74%

$2.07

$41.73

9.56%

$47.41

-3.56%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$97.02

$95.09

2.03%

$1.93

$65.39

48.38%

$44.22

119.42%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$26.61

$26.50

0.40%

$0.11

$26.95

-1.29%

$54.86

-51.50%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$46.97

$45.21

3.88%

$1.76

$43.65

7.59%

$50.74

-7.44%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$37.74

$36.82

2.51%

$0.92

$37.53

0.57%

$47.15

-19.95%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$42.95

$44.39

-3.24%

-$1.44

$44.97

-4.49%

$56.99

-24.64%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$37.86

$37.93

-0.20%

-$0.07

$36.02

5.10%

$48.17

-21.41%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.416

$2.344

3.07%

$0.07

$1.96

23.14%

$3.27

-26.03%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.301

-$0.322

-6.46%

$0.02

-$0.24

25.26%

-$0.41

-27.12%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.357

-$0.416

16.48%

$0.06

-$0.23

55.16%

-$0.25

45.86%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.680

-$1.638

-2.56%

-$0.04

-$1.61

4.31%

-$1.36

23.20%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.333

-$0.379

12.10%

$0.05

$0.13

-361.62%

-$0.25

31.95%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.446

-$1.561

-7.38%

$0.12

-$0.99

46.67%

-$1.27

13.51%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.456

-$0.408

11.65%

-$0.05

-$0.28

63.01%

-$0.03

1621.13%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.690

$0.698

-1.08%

-$0.01

$0.78

-12.09%

$0.65

5.37%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.688

$0.693

-0.72%

$0.00

$0.79

-12.55%

$0.65

6.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.199

$0.194

2.73%

$0.01

$0.19

2.69%

$0.23

-12.20%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.478

$1.465

0.86%

$0.01

$1.60

-7.78%

$1.36

8.86%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.775

$0.781

-0.78%

-$0.01

$0.90

-13.77%

$0.74

4.47%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.885

$5.887

-0.03%

$0.00

$6.03

-2.41%

$4.85

21.37%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.380

$5.360

0.38%

$0.02

$5.70

-5.61%

$4.61

16.75%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$78.16

$77.65

0.65%

$0.51

$81.61

-4.23%

$67.30

16.14%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$82.75

$82.38

0.45%

$0.37

$86.60

-4.45%

$71.69

15.43%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.40

-$11.50

-0.88%

$0.10

-$10.32

10.41%

-$13.00

-12.31%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.74

$80.65

-1.15%

-$0.91

$83.58

-4.59%

$69.40

14.89%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.54

$78.35

-1.05%

-$0.81

$81.56

-4.93%

$64.83

19.60%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$77.68

$78.62

-1.21%

-$0.94

$83.75

-7.24%

$65.08

19.36%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$80.75

$80.38

0.46%

$0.37

$84.60

-4.55%

$70.24

14.96%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.43

$2.42

0.25%

$0.01

$2.58

-5.97%

$2.30

5.75%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.49

$2.51

-0.92%

-$0.02

$2.75

-9.56%

$2.22

12.13%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.39

$2.41

-0.95%

-$0.02

$2.65

-9.92%

$2.12

12.70%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.37

$2.34

1.41%

$0.03

$2.53

-6.28%

$2.12

12.10%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.83

$1.84

-0.54%

-$0.01

$1.68

8.73%

$1.62

13.10%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$704.93

$701.58

0.48%

$3.36

$761.93

-7.48%

$628.10

12.23%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.52

$95.58

-0.07%

-$0.06

$104.05

-8.20%

$89.30

6.96%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jun-24

50.62%

51.69%

-2.07%

-1.07%

61.75%

-18.02%

47.62%

6.30%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jun-24

65.42%

63.90%

2.38%

1.52%

80.14%

-18.37%

49.78%

31.42%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jun-24

224.31%

220.96%

1.52%

3.35%

192.31%

16.64%

63.45%

253.52%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jun-24

63.37%

62.21%

1.86%

1.16%

63.97%

-0.94%

48.59%

30.42%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jun-24

62.33%

61.00%

2.18%

1.33%

56.06%

11.18%

46.31%

34.59%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jun-24

47.00%

60.77%

-22.66%

-13.77%

78.45%

-40.09%

50.23%

-6.43%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jun-24

90.38%

247.17%

-63.43%

-156.79%

161.08%

-43.89%

80.62%

12.11%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jun-24

EUR 29.48

EUR 29.65

-0.59%

-EUR 0.17

EUR 32.00

-7.88%

EUR 47.38

-37.78%

 

 

NBP

Jun-24

GBP 71.32

GBP 72.09

-1.07%

-GBP 0.77

GBP 78.80

-9.49%

GBP 117.48

-39.29%

 

 

German Base

Jun-24

EUR 65.42

EUR 65.55

-0.20%

-EUR 0.13

EUR 71.76

-8.84%

EUR 110.25

-40.67%

 

 

UK Base

Jun-24

GBP 63.30

GBP 65.15

-2.84%

-GBP 1.85

GBP 68.14

-7.10%

GBP 108.79

-41.82%

 

 

French Base

Jun-24

EUR 40.39

EUR 41.60

-2.91%

-EUR 1.21

EUR 36.33

11.19%

EUR 108.15

-62.65%

 

 

Italian Base

Jun-24

EUR 90.33

EUR 88.86

1.66%

EUR 1.47

EUR 92.72

-2.58%

EUR 120.46

-25.01%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jun-24

$10.61

$10.69

-0.82%

-$0.09

$10.66

-0.49%

$13.92

-23.82%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/15/24

5/14/24

% Change

Change

4/17/24

% Change

5/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jun-24

$29.48

$29.65

-0.59%

-$0.17

$32.00

-7.88%

$47.38

-37.78%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jun-24

$71.32

$72.09

-1.07%

-$0.77

$78.80

-9.49%

$117.48

-39.29%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jun-24

$65.42

$65.55

-0.20%

-$0.13

$71.76

-8.84%

$110.25

-40.67%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jun-24

$63.30

$65.15

-2.84%

-$1.85

$68.14

-7.10%

$108.79

-41.82%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jun-24

$40.39

$41.60

-2.91%

-$1.21

$36.33

11.19%

$108.15

-62.65%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$90.33

$88.86

1.66%

$1.47

$92.72

-2.58%

$120.46

-25.01%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jun-24

$10.61

$10.69

-0.82%

-$0.09

$10.66

-0.49%

$13.92

-23.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

3

4

9

7

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-5

-2

6

-4

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

3

-5

-21

11

-9

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

53

23

16

243

14

-56

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

49

28

11

131

44

38

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

70

25

-1

319

77

1

32.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-8

1

33

-39

-7

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

22

7

2

94

6

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

76

-5

15

5,648

-785

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

52

-12

4

5,101

-694

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

44

-25

5

5,301

-1,056

-411

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-13

22

5,569

-1,058

-887

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-11

-7

2,440

-393

7

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-17

-5

3,064

-515

-13

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-4

1

2,057

-235

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

19

17

4,766

-257

-603

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

7

-21

2,986

-78

-515

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

38

-8

0

3,885

-540

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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