Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-17-2024

May 17, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.568

$2.495

2.93%

$0.073

40,241

 

 

WTI

$79.77

$79.23

0.68%

$0.54

31,580

 

 

Brent

$83.70

$83.27

0.52%

$0.43

9,167

 

 

ULSD

$2.482

$2.444

1.57%

$0.038

12,774

 

 

RBOB

$2.574

$2.538

1.42%

$0.036

11,158

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.42

$4.53

-2.43%

-$0.11

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.26

$26.36

3.40%

$0.90

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.41

$40.38

7.49%

$3.02

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/10/24

603

-2

-128

05/13/23

 

 

Canada

05/10/24

116

-4

22

05/13/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/7/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

94,276

93,815

93,866

-51

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,758

81,403

81,461

-58

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

359,731

339,638

346,230

-6,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

150,745

133,093

124,762

8,331

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,001

117,375

120,274

-2,899

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,818

34,210

34,545

-335

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,058

148,045

148,606

-561

 

 

RBOB

407,977

380,070

390,132

-10,062

 

 

HSC Basis

804,147

796,090

799,242

-3,152

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/10/19

 

 

 

5/10/24

5/3/24

Net Change

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

482

454

28

6.17%

458

5.24%

382

26.11%

 

 

Midwest

606

584

22

3.77%

520

16.54%

454

33.60%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

112

75.00%

111

76.26%

 

 

Pacific

252

246

6

2.44%

127

98.43%

198

27.53%

 

 

South

1,097

1,087

10

0.92%

1,023

7.23%

901

21.78%

 

 

    Salt

313

314

-1

-0.32%

290

7.93%

281

11.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

784

773

11

1.42%

734

6.81%

620

26.41%

 

 

Total

2,633

2,563

70

2.73%

2,240

17.54%

2,046

28.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$48.89

$45.72

6.93%

$3.17

$42.18

15.89%

$47.02

3.98%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$104.14

$97.02

7.34%

$7.12

$66.26

57.18%

$45.33

129.73%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$24.52

$26.61

-7.83%

-$2.08

$25.91

-5.36%

$54.28

-54.82%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$49.98

$46.97

6.41%

$3.01

$43.38

15.22%

$50.36

-0.76%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$40.08

$37.74

6.19%

$2.34

$37.50

6.88%

$47.83

-16.21%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$39.88

$42.95

-7.14%

-$3.07

$42.48

-6.12%

$57.74

-30.92%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$40.00

$37.86

5.67%

$2.15

$35.82

11.68%

$47.76

-16.25%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.495

$2.416

3.27%

$0.08

$1.99

25.63%

$3.25

-23.28%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.264

-$0.301

-12.36%

$0.04

-$0.23

14.60%

-$0.40

-33.74%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.346

-$0.357

3.44%

$0.01

-$0.23

48.45%

-$0.23

49.87%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.727

-$1.680

-2.82%

-$0.05

-$1.54

11.92%

-$1.29

33.85%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.380

-$0.333

-14.04%

-$0.05

$0.09

-535.89%

-$0.22

71.14%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.511

-$1.446

4.48%

-$0.06

-$0.99

52.59%

-$1.21

25.38%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.447

-$0.456

-1.93%

$0.01

-$0.32

41.91%

-$0.03

1633.72%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.677

$0.690

-1.81%

-$0.01

$0.78

-12.71%

$0.67

1.62%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.680

$0.688

-1.10%

-$0.01

$0.78

-12.77%

$0.65

5.24%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.204

$0.199

2.33%

$0.00

$0.20

4.39%

$0.23

-10.49%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.523

$1.478

3.05%

$0.05

$1.58

-3.78%

$1.36

11.96%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.781

$0.775

0.77%

$0.01

$0.88

-11.38%

$0.77

0.90%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$5.981

$5.885

1.62%

$0.10

$5.92

0.95%

$4.80

24.62%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.400

$5.380

0.36%

$0.02

$5.62

-3.94%

$4.61

17.22%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$78.74

$78.16

0.74%

$0.58

$81.52

-3.41%

$69.15

13.87%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$83.27

$82.75

0.62%

$0.52

$86.40

-3.62%

$73.58

13.17%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.10

-$11.40

-2.70%

$0.30

-$10.78

2.94%

-$13.00

-14.62%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$80.21

$79.74

0.59%

$0.47

$83.58

-4.03%

$71.17

12.71%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$78.01

$77.54

0.60%

$0.47

$81.39

-4.16%

$66.52

17.28%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.19

$77.68

0.65%

$0.51

$82.19

-4.87%

$67.12

16.49%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$81.27

$80.75

0.64%

$0.52

$84.40

-3.71%

$72.81

11.63%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.45

$2.43

0.95%

$0.02

$2.55

-3.81%

$2.35

4.34%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.54

$2.49

2.09%

$0.05

$2.68

-5.33%

$2.20

15.51%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.39

2.18%

$0.05

$2.58

-5.54%

$2.10

16.25%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.40

$2.37

1.22%

$0.03

$2.49

-3.73%

$2.15

11.73%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.81

$1.83

-1.20%

-$0.02

$1.68

7.75%

$1.63

10.65%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$708.75

$704.93

0.54%

$3.82

$743.85

-4.72%

$634.28

11.74%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.45

$95.52

0.97%

$0.93

$100.87

-4.39%

$87.61

10.08%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

52.20%

48.00%

8.75%

4.20%

52.16%

0.08%

47.70%

9.43%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

56.07%

48.28%

16.14%

7.79%

51.16%

9.60%

47.45%

18.17%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

132.11%

121.75%

8.51%

10.36%

106.65%

23.87%

53.76%

145.74%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

64.17%

58.84%

9.06%

5.33%

53.25%

20.51%

47.45%

35.24%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

74.62%

65.26%

14.34%

9.36%

59.07%

26.32%

53.93%

38.36%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

63.47%

69.69%

-8.93%

-6.22%

69.22%

-8.31%

68.52%

-7.37%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

297.58%

320.03%

-7.01%

-22.45%

149.29%

99.33%

112.67%

164.12%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 30.88

EUR 29.73

3.84%

EUR 1.14

EUR 32.34

-4.54%

EUR 49.83

-38.03%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 73.69

GBP 71.02

3.75%

GBP 2.67

GBP 78.91

-6.61%

GBP 118.60

-37.87%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 71.98

EUR 69.86

3.03%

EUR 2.12

EUR 74.22

-3.02%

EUR 116.99

-38.47%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 69.19

GBP 65.80

5.15%

GBP 3.39

GBP 69.91

-1.04%

GBP 112.05

-38.25%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 54.31

EUR 54.93

-1.13%

-EUR 0.62

EUR 56.79

-4.37%

EUR 109.89

-50.58%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 101.47

EUR 99.49

2.00%

EUR 1.99

EUR 102.79

-1.28%

EUR 133.76

-24.14%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$10.61

$10.61

-0.01%

$0.00

$10.86

-2.34%

$14.43

-26.51%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/16/24

5/15/24

% Change

Change

4/18/24

% Change

5/17/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$30.88

$29.73

3.84%

$1.14

$32.34

-4.54%

$49.83

-38.03%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$73.69

$71.02

3.75%

$2.67

$78.91

-6.61%

$118.60

-37.87%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$71.98

$69.86

3.03%

$2.12

$74.22

-3.02%

$116.99

-38.47%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$69.19

$65.80

5.15%

$3.39

$69.91

-1.04%

$112.05

-38.25%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$54.31

$54.93

-1.13%

-$0.62

$56.79

-4.37%

$109.89

-50.58%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$101.47

$99.49

2.00%

$1.99

$102.79

-1.28%

$133.76

-24.14%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$10.61

$10.61

-0.01%

$0.00

$10.86

-2.34%

$14.43

-26.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

-3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

3

4

9

7

-3

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

1

-5

-2

6

-4

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

3

-5

-21

11

-9

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

53

23

16

243

14

-56

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

49

28

11

131

44

38

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

70

25

-1

319

77

1

32.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-8

1

33

-39

-7

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-29

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

22

7

2

94

6

-11

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/11/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

76

-5

15

5,648

-785

118

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

52

-12

4

5,101

-694

92

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

44

-25

5

5,301

-1,056

-411

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

47

-13

22

5,569

-1,058

-887

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-11

-7

2,440

-393

7

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

6

-17

-5

3,064

-515

-13

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-4

1

2,057

-235

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

19

17

4,766

-257

-603

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

7

-21

2,986

-78

-515

-3.00%

-15.00%

 

 

United States

38

-8

0

3,885

-540

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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