Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-20-2024

May 20, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:21 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.732

$2.626

4.04%

$0.106

72,203

 

 

WTI

$80.45

$80.06

0.49%

$0.39

16,970

 

 

Brent

$84.37

$83.98

0.46%

$0.39

9,218

 

 

ULSD

$2.501

$2.486

0.60%

$0.015

7,832

 

 

RBOB

$2.569

$2.574

-0.19%

-$0.005

5,519

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.39

$4.40

-0.23%

-$0.01

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.79

$27.08

-1.08%

-$0.29

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.11

$43.27

-0.37%

-$0.16

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/17/24

604

1

-116

05/20/23

 

 

Canada

05/17/24

114

-2

29

05/20/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/14/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,604

95,153

95,194

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,441

82,086

82,142

-56

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

366,777

346,142

353,702

-7,560

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,490

139,402

131,881

7,521

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,339

117,124

120,020

-2,896

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,299

35,562

35,959

-397

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,664

156,584

157,120

-536

 

 

RBOB

407,857

382,270

389,792

-7,522

 

 

HSC Basis

823,959

815,257

818,640

-3,383

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/10/19

 

 

 

5/10/24

5/3/24

Net Change

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

482

454

28

6.17%

458

5.24%

382

26.11%

 

 

Midwest

606

584

22

3.77%

520

16.54%

454

33.60%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

112

75.00%

111

76.26%

 

 

Pacific

252

246

6

2.44%

127

98.43%

198

27.53%

 

 

South

1,097

1,087

10

0.92%

1,023

7.23%

901

21.78%

 

 

    Salt

313

314

-1

-0.32%

290

7.93%

281

11.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

784

773

11

1.42%

734

6.81%

620

26.41%

 

 

Total

2,633

2,563

70

2.73%

2,240

17.54%

2,046

28.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$48.95

$48.89

0.13%

$0.07

$42.38

15.51%

$47.85

2.30%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$78.98

$104.14

-24.16%

-$25.16

$64.82

21.85%

$47.07

67.80%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$23.57

$24.52

-3.88%

-$0.95

$26.22

-10.12%

$50.27

-53.11%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$49.49

$49.98

-0.97%

-$0.48

$43.02

15.05%

$51.15

-3.24%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$40.99

$40.08

2.29%

$0.92

$36.87

11.20%

$46.09

-11.06%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$38.30

$39.88

-3.96%

-$1.58

$42.94

-10.79%

$59.96

-36.12%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$41.15

$40.00

2.86%

$1.14

$36.28

13.41%

$48.11

-14.47%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.626

$2.495

5.25%

$0.13

$1.99

32.09%

$3.35

-21.57%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.273

-$0.264

3.34%

-$0.01

-$0.22

25.68%

-$0.41

-33.54%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.376

-$0.346

-8.11%

-$0.03

-$0.24

58.76%

-$0.24

56.38%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$1.855

-$1.727

-7.39%

-$0.13

-$1.55

19.58%

-$1.22

52.00%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.479

-$0.380

-26.10%

-$0.10

$0.01

-5805.95%

-$0.22

116.19%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.614

-$1.511

6.78%

-$0.10

-$1.03

56.21%

-$1.31

23.60%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.504

-$0.447

12.72%

-$0.06

-$0.32

56.24%

-$0.01

6902.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.700

$0.677

3.31%

$0.02

$0.79

-10.85%

$0.66

6.53%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.696

$0.680

2.38%

$0.02

$0.77

-9.43%

$0.65

6.71%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.205

$0.204

0.63%

$0.00

$0.20

3.08%

$0.24

-13.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.539

$1.523

1.05%

$0.02

$1.59

-3.23%

$1.39

10.99%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.788

$0.781

0.87%

$0.01

$0.89

-11.59%

$0.76

3.22%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.106

$5.981

2.10%

$0.13

$5.97

2.34%

$4.88

25.24%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.531

$5.400

2.43%

$0.13

$5.60

-1.24%

$4.62

19.73%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$79.58

$78.74

1.06%

$0.84

$81.58

-2.45%

$68.62

15.97%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$83.98

$83.27

0.85%

$0.71

$86.51

-2.92%

$72.98

15.07%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.15

-$11.10

0.45%

-$0.05

-$10.75

3.72%

-$12.95

-13.93%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$80.65

$80.21

0.55%

$0.44

$83.28

-3.15%

$69.88

15.42%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$78.60

$78.01

0.75%

$0.59

$81.39

-3.43%

$65.81

19.44%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.77

$78.19

0.74%

$0.58

$82.23

-4.21%

$66.76

18.00%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$81.98

$81.27

0.87%

$0.71

$84.51

-2.99%

$71.25

15.06%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.49

$2.45

1.55%

$0.04

$2.56

-2.66%

$2.34

6.28%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.54

$2.54

0.04%

$0.00

$2.68

-5.33%

$2.23

13.65%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.44

0.04%

$0.00

$2.58

-5.54%

$2.13

14.29%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.46

$2.40

2.37%

$0.06

$2.52

-2.31%

$2.14

14.97%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.78

$1.81

-1.55%

-$0.03

$1.71

4.40%

$1.61

10.70%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$721.52

$708.75

1.80%

$12.77

$734.18

-1.72%

$628.48

14.80%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.49

$96.45

0.04%

$0.04

$99.24

-2.78%

$90.58

6.53%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

49.80%

52.20%

-4.60%

-2.40%

54.80%

-9.12%

42.47%

17.26%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

48.39%

56.07%

-13.70%

-7.68%

54.12%

-10.59%

42.07%

15.02%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

111.71%

132.11%

-15.44%

-20.40%

110.95%

0.68%

48.67%

129.53%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

58.87%

64.17%

-8.26%

-5.30%

56.57%

4.07%

41.70%

41.18%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

76.18%

74.62%

2.09%

1.56%

59.26%

28.55%

53.82%

41.55%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

74.58%

63.47%

17.50%

11.11%

68.96%

8.15%

68.79%

8.42%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

323.70%

297.58%

8.78%

26.12%

154.06%

110.11%

113.15%

186.08%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 31.04

EUR 30.88

0.53%

EUR 0.16

EUR 30.87

0.53%

EUR 48.28

-35.72%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 74.25

GBP 73.69

0.76%

GBP 0.56

GBP 75.41

-1.53%

GBP 117.06

-36.57%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 71.83

EUR 71.98

-0.22%

-EUR 0.15

EUR 74.32

-3.35%

EUR 116.11

-38.14%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 70.11

GBP 69.19

1.33%

GBP 0.92

GBP 69.25

1.23%

GBP 108.09

-35.14%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 53.24

EUR 54.31

-1.96%

-EUR 1.07

EUR 54.56

-2.41%

EUR 112.62

-52.72%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 100.95

EUR 101.47

-0.52%

-EUR 0.53

EUR 100.76

0.19%

EUR 129.99

-22.34%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$10.76

$10.61

1.43%

$0.15

$10.57

1.80%

$14.26

-24.53%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/17/24

5/16/24

% Change

Change

4/19/24

% Change

5/18/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$31.04

$30.88

0.53%

$0.16

$30.87

0.53%

$48.28

-35.72%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$74.25

$73.69

0.76%

$0.56

$75.41

-1.53%

$117.06

-36.57%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$71.83

$71.98

-0.22%

-$0.15

$74.32

-3.35%

$116.11

-38.14%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$70.11

$69.19

1.33%

$0.92

$69.25

1.23%

$108.09

-35.14%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$53.24

$54.31

-1.96%

-$1.07

$54.56

-2.41%

$112.62

-52.72%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$100.95

$101.47

-0.52%

-$0.53

$100.76

0.19%

$129.99

-22.34%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$10.76

$10.61

1.43%

$0.15

$10.57

1.80%

$14.26

-24.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

0

-1

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-4

-4

9

3

-5

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

6

-5

3

11

-9

2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

14

1

-5

25

-7

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

43

4

-8

286

19

-62

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

32

3

-22

163

47

16

41.00%

11.00%

 

 

W S Central

55

0

-9

375

78

-6

26.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

21

2

-4

54

-37

-12

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-7

-14

1

-36

-16

NA

NA

 

 

United States

19

-1

-7

114

6

-16

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

52

-13

-7

5,700

-798

101

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

42

-8

0

5,143

-701

85

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

28

-27

-13

5,329

-1,083

-428

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

-22

1

5,594

-1,080

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-1

7

2,452

-395

12

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

11

-6

9

3,075

-522

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-2

1

2,059

-236

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

39

-15

2

4,805

-272

-599

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

-19

20

3,009

-96

-492

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

24

-13

3

3,909

-553

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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