Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-21-2024

May 21, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.692

$2.751

-2.14%

-$0.059

44,579

 

 

WTI

$78.36

$79.80

-1.80%

-$1.44

2,332

 

 

Brent

$82.33

$83.71

-1.65%

-$1.38

7,888

 

 

ULSD

$2.452

$2.487

-1.40%

-$0.035

4,360

 

 

RBOB

$2.501

$2.540

-1.55%

-$0.039

2,990

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.41

$4.41

0.00%

$0.00

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.28

$26.52

-0.91%

-$0.24

Jun-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$47.71

$43.07

10.79%

$4.65

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/17/24

604

1

-116

05/20/23

 

 

Canada

05/17/24

114

-2

29

05/20/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/14/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,604

95,153

95,194

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,441

82,086

82,142

-56

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

366,777

346,142

353,702

-7,560

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,490

139,402

131,881

7,521

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,339

117,124

120,020

-2,896

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,299

35,562

35,959

-397

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,664

156,584

157,120

-536

 

 

RBOB

407,857

382,270

389,792

-7,522

 

 

HSC Basis

823,959

815,257

818,640

-3,383

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/10/19

 

 

 

5/10/24

5/3/24

Net Change

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

482

454

28

6.17%

458

5.24%

382

26.11%

 

 

Midwest

606

584

22

3.77%

520

16.54%

454

33.60%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

112

75.00%

111

76.26%

 

 

Pacific

252

246

6

2.44%

127

98.43%

198

27.53%

 

 

South

1,097

1,087

10

0.92%

1,023

7.23%

901

21.78%

 

 

    Salt

313

314

-1

-0.32%

290

7.93%

281

11.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

784

773

11

1.42%

734

6.81%

620

26.41%

 

 

Total

2,633

2,563

70

2.73%

2,240

17.54%

2,046

28.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$53.47

$48.95

9.23%

$4.52

$43.44

23.10%

$48.14

11.08%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$79.52

$78.98

0.68%

$0.54

$69.61

14.24%

$45.53

74.66%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$22.75

$23.57

-3.48%

-$0.82

$26.13

-12.93%

$55.02

-58.65%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$53.73

$49.49

8.57%

$4.24

$44.57

20.55%

$52.06

3.22%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$42.15

$40.99

2.82%

$1.16

$37.61

12.08%

$49.14

-14.21%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$38.00

$38.30

-0.79%

-$0.30

$39.81

-4.56%

$60.85

-37.55%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$42.43

$41.15

3.12%

$1.28

$36.96

14.80%

$49.57

-14.40%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.751

$2.626

4.76%

$0.13

$2.07

33.22%

$3.32

-17.06%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.295

-$0.273

8.25%

-$0.02

-$0.22

31.45%

-$0.39

-24.06%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.442

-$0.376

-14.97%

-$0.07

-$0.23

94.93%

-$0.23

88.86%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$2.020

-$1.855

-8.91%

-$0.17

-$1.58

27.97%

-$1.15

75.82%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.560

-$0.479

-16.88%

-$0.08

-$0.01

5135.51%

-$0.22

158.39%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.747

-$1.614

8.25%

-$0.13

-$0.98

77.51%

-$1.26

38.85%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.618

-$0.504

22.59%

-$0.11

-$0.30

104.74%

$0.00

-206133.32%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.710

$0.700

1.44%

$0.01

$0.77

-8.23%

$0.66

8.27%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.700

$0.696

0.54%

$0.00

$0.77

-9.08%

$0.66

5.56%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.210

$0.205

2.42%

$0.00

$0.20

5.66%

$0.23

-10.21%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.545

$1.539

0.41%

$0.01

$1.58

-2.36%

$1.36

13.21%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.802

$0.788

1.82%

$0.01

$0.87

-7.72%

$0.74

7.89%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.174

$6.106

1.12%

$0.07

$5.90

4.66%

$4.90

26.05%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.783

$5.531

4.55%

$0.25

$5.54

4.43%

$4.70

23.08%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$79.30

$79.58

-0.35%

-$0.28

$81.21

-2.35%

$67.94

16.72%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$83.71

$83.98

-0.32%

-$0.27

$86.07

-2.74%

$72.28

15.81%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.10

-$11.15

-0.44%

$0.05

-$10.75

3.27%

-$13.00

-14.61%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$81.80

$80.65

1.41%

$1.15

$83.28

-1.77%

$70.51

16.01%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$79.50

$78.60

1.13%

$0.90

$81.39

-2.33%

$65.99

20.47%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$79.61

$78.77

1.06%

$0.84

$82.23

-3.19%

$65.88

20.85%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$81.71

$81.98

-0.33%

-$0.27

$84.07

-2.81%

$71.25

14.68%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.48

$2.49

-0.20%

$0.00

$2.57

-3.46%

$2.32

7.16%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.54

$2.54

-0.08%

$0.00

$2.66

-4.73%

$2.22

14.22%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.44

$2.44

-0.08%

$0.00

$2.56

-4.91%

$2.12

14.89%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.43

$2.46

-0.98%

-$0.02

$2.51

-2.87%

$2.14

13.59%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.78

$1.78

0.28%

$0.00

$1.72

3.66%

$1.55

14.86%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$724.83

$721.52

0.46%

$3.31

$739.37

-1.97%

$626.40

15.71%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$97.48

$96.49

1.02%

$0.99

$99.69

-2.22%

$89.08

9.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

54.85%

49.80%

10.14%

5.05%

53.12%

3.26%

46.13%

18.90%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

52.16%

48.39%

7.79%

3.77%

50.91%

2.46%

44.76%

16.53%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

118.14%

111.71%

5.76%

6.43%

103.19%

14.49%

51.10%

131.19%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

63.50%

58.87%

7.86%

4.63%

53.84%

17.94%

45.34%

40.05%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

76.44%

76.18%

0.34%

0.26%

59.58%

28.30%

53.70%

42.35%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

60.59%

74.58%

-18.76%

-13.99%

71.09%

-14.77%

69.07%

-12.28%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

322.69%

323.70%

-0.31%

-1.01%

190.24%

69.62%

113.64%

183.96%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 31.95

EUR 31.04

2.92%

EUR 0.91

EUR 29.32

8.97%

EUR 48.56

-34.22%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 76.67

GBP 74.25

3.26%

GBP 2.42

GBP 71.84

6.73%

GBP 117.38

-34.68%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 76.04

EUR 71.83

5.87%

EUR 4.21

EUR 71.46

6.41%

EUR 116.86

-34.93%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 71.69

GBP 70.11

2.25%

GBP 1.58

GBP 66.96

7.05%

GBP 111.39

-35.64%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 55.94

EUR 53.24

5.07%

EUR 2.70

EUR 51.81

7.97%

EUR 112.28

-50.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 106.86

EUR 100.95

5.85%

EUR 5.91

EUR 97.97

9.06%

EUR 137.01

-22.01%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.21

$10.76

4.19%

$0.45

$10.16

10.27%

$14.77

-24.08%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/20/24

5/17/24

% Change

Change

4/22/24

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$31.95

$31.04

2.92%

$0.91

$29.32

8.97%

$48.56

-34.22%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$76.67

$74.25

3.26%

$2.42

$71.84

6.73%

$117.38

-34.68%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$76.04

$71.83

5.87%

$4.21

$71.46

6.41%

$116.86

-34.93%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$71.69

$70.11

2.25%

$1.58

$66.96

7.05%

$111.39

-35.64%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$55.94

$53.24

5.07%

$2.70

$51.81

7.97%

$112.28

-50.18%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$106.86

$100.95

5.85%

$5.91

$97.97

9.06%

$137.01

-22.01%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.21

$10.76

4.19%

$0.45

$10.16

10.27%

$14.77

-24.08%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

0

-1

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-4

-4

9

3

-5

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

6

-5

3

11

-9

2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

14

1

-5

25

-7

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

43

4

-8

286

19

-62

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

32

3

-22

163

47

16

41.00%

11.00%

 

 

W S Central

55

0

-9

375

78

-6

26.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

21

2

-4

54

-37

-12

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-7

-14

1

-36

-16

NA

NA

 

 

United States

19

-1

-7

114

6

-16

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

52

-13

-7

5,700

-798

101

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

42

-8

0

5,143

-701

85

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

28

-27

-13

5,329

-1,083

-428

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

-22

1

5,594

-1,080

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-1

7

2,452

-395

12

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

11

-6

9

3,075

-522

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-2

1

2,059

-236

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

39

-15

2

4,805

-272

-599

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

-19

20

3,009

-96

-492

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

24

-13

3

3,909

-553

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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